Potential and Regression?

[StonewallTexan]

Does potential have much (if any) effect on regression of older players? In other words, will a 75 Overall A potential 36 year old regress slower than a 75/B, or are both doomed to regressive irrelevancy by the end of the season?

[mattynokes]

I feel it's partly based on performance and mostly based on randomness. In my current franchise, I have a 32 age 3B that in Spring Training was 91/A. He started off the year in a terrible slump, but eventually got things going (though not quite to his usual numbers). By the end of the season, he declined to an 87. I also have 35 age SP that was a 95/A in Spring Training. He got off to an amazing, Cy Young worthy, start. He ended up getting hurt midway through the season and when he came back, he was just solid. He only declined to a 94.

You would think that the older player (especially with an injury) would decline quicker than the younger player (who still ended up with a solid season). I also have a 34 age 1B that hits well and has seen basically zero decline. In a franchise on MLB 21, I had a 26 age CF (76/B) that was looking like he was declining like he was 36 years old. I non-tendered the guy and by the time he was 28, he was down in the mid 60's.

[da5hitta]

Some of it is definitely random. But I’ve found that a higher potential seems to naturally “pull” their ratings up faster leading to more progression for A/high B potential players, even if they struggle. That’s not to say they can’t regress with poor performance, but it can be easier for them to naturally improve.

Not everyone declines at the same age to the same degree. And good/bad performance will accelerate or offset (to a degree) age regression.

As for why guys under 30 regress so harshly, I don’t know. Some of it seems to be random. Assuming they aren’t say 75 overall with D potential at least. Those guys will go down because the D potential “pulls” their ratings down

[Cycloniac]

Quote: Originally Posted by StonewallTexan

Does potential have much (if any) effect on regression of older players? In other words, will a 75 Overall A potential 36 year old regress slower than a 75/B, or are both doomed to regressive irrelevancy by the end of the season?

In my observation, yes it does.

Performance plays a part as well, but the potential rating for older players can slow regression if it's high enough.

[da5hitta]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cycloniac

In my observation, yes it does. Performance plays a part as well, but the potential rating for older players can slow regression if it's high enough.

That's been my experience too. I've even started bumping up potential for older, established players to A level so that they will decline less severely in their mid/late 30's. Sometimes it can even help them gain stats if they are performing really well, or at least off-set part of the decline if they are only playing decent.