Pitcher Confidence

[Bobhead]

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

Unless it's changed, it's purely results oriented. Meaning a screaming 330-ft line drive for an out is "better" than a 5-hop grounder that sneaks past the half-awake shortstop. Never mind that the latter result was most likely the best pitch, especially if it was thrown to a good location and fooled the hitter. So I don't think the system understands true pitch-arounds (it's a walk so...bad result). IBBs, I don't know, I tend not to issue them, and if I do, the confidence is the last thing I'm worried about. I understand what the system is trying to do, but if I throw a good pitch, getting "penalized" because confidence is low doesn't make sense. Neither does a "confident" hanging curve working because of the confidence. Confidence influencing partly on whether or not the curve hangs? Fine. Confidence messing with the result after bat hits ball? I don't like that. I think it needs to be more nuanced/subtle and consider more than just the end result - which might be largely out of the pitcher's control. I would also like to see some individuality (perhaps tie it to the clutch rating or make a hidden rating) in how pitchers respond to various game events with regards to "confidence".

Does the system really work that way? I've always assumed that the pitch confidence system functioned not by making a hanging curveball more effective, but by lowering the probability of the curveball hanging in the first place.

I agree with the other part of your post though, about the system being too results driven. A hard line drive out should not be a reward, a pop-fly single should not be a penalty.

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by Bobhead

Does the system really work that way? I've always assumed that the pitch confidence system functioned not by making a hanging curveball more effective, but by lowering the probability of the curveball hanging in the first place.

I notice that when pitchers have poor confidence (mine or CPU's) everything tends to be harder contact, regardless of location and (to a degree) hitter's timing and swing plane (unless it's way off). Getting confidence back up either relies on your pitching coach (how ever that works...is it random? Is there a hidden rating on the coach, etc?), or pretty much good luck.

Likewise, when pitchers have high confidence, it just doesn't matter. All contact tends to be weaker unless pretty much perfect. Hitters have to hope the pitchers start making mistakes somehow (getting tired, bad luck thanks to the "bleeders equal poor results" aspect, etc).

I could be wrong, obviously, but it just seems consistent over the versions of the game.

It's almost like in MLB13/14 I would get poor results on a hanging curve because the pitcher was "perfect" on his delivery/meter. Just part of the game, I know, just makes me chuckle sometimes about that perfectly thrown hanging curve with high confidence to get Stanton to pop up on a perfectly timed swing

[Ghostciv]

the more strikes u throw the better ur pitcher confidence( it can be a 2 strike pitch and if u throw 9 more pitches that keep getting fouled off add to ur confidence also). had an at bat where guy fouled off like 8 to 9 pitches and each time the pitch i threw raised in confidence. but give up a walk or base hit afterwards and watch it decrease fast

[joeylomax]

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

Unless it's changed, it's purely results oriented. Meaning a screaming 330-ft line drive for an out is "better" than a 5-hop grounder that sneaks past the half-awake shortstop. Never mind that the latter result was most likely the best pitch, especially if it was thrown to a good location and fooled the hitter. So I don't think the system understands true pitch-arounds (it's a walk so...bad result). IBBs, I don't know, I tend not to issue them, and if I do, the confidence is the last thing I'm worried about. I understand what the system is trying to do, but if I throw a good pitch, getting "penalized" because confidence is low doesn't make sense. Neither does a "confident" hanging curve working because of the confidence. Confidence influencing partly on whether or not the curve hangs? Fine. Confidence messing with the result after bat hits ball? I don't like that. I think it needs to be more nuanced/subtle and consider more than just the end result - which might be largely out of the pitcher's control. I would also like to see some individuality (perhaps tie it to the clutch rating or make a hidden rating) in how pitchers respond to various game events with regards to "confidence".

I get what you're saying, but as a former pitcher, I can see it the other way as well. Even if you're hitting your spots and feeling "on," the opposing team can still impact your confidence by (exactly what you said), sticking the bat out on a perfectly spotted outside pitch and blooping it into right field for a two-out single. That can get in a pitcher's head, and thus, have a negative impact on confidence. Conversely, let's say you miss with a pitch and you inadvertently throw a center-cut fastball down the middle of the plate that the hitter belts hard to the center fielder for an out. As a pitcher, you're thinking, whew!! I got away with one there! And, thus confidence increases as you approach the next hitter as you tend to be more careful and you realize you have a great defense behind you. Make sense?

So, I guess there's two ways of looking at it.

[rjackson]

Quote: Originally Posted by Bobhead

Does the system really work that way? I've always assumed that the pitch confidence system functioned not by making a hanging curveball more effective, but by lowering the probability of the curveball hanging in the first place. I agree with the other part of your post though, about the system being too results driven. A hard line drive out should not be a reward, a pop-fly single should not be a penalty.

The system really does work that way but it doesn't bother me. It does affect a pitcher IRL when they successfully jam a hitter but that texas leaguer bloops right in. I've seen plenty of pitchers put their heads down or shake their heads when this happens.

Also, I don't think people are separating overall confidence from the confidence in individual pitches. The best way to raise an individual pitch is to get a whiff on it (even if not a K) or a K. A walk or a HR really drops it. Strikes & balls without a BB or K result is a very minor change. Getting an out or allowing a hit is a bit more of a change. What you talk about as far as breaks or a pitch's effectiveness is based on this, the individual pitch rating. An IBB doesn't affect confidence but pitching around does since you didn't get the hitter to chase.

Overall confidence seems to me to be more based on OPS for the outing kind of like dynamic difficulty. If you play meter and get the confidence really up, you'll see the meter become much easier to hit the release point and really spot your pitches. I mean, it does this in Classic as well but I know that it is visually represented and verifiable via meter. I can't speak for pulse...

[Steven78]

What I hate about individual pitch confidence is a strike raises it and a ball lowers it even if you dont aim there.

Like if I aim low and away out of the zone and I miss my spot badly and it ends up over the heart of the plate, a strike still raises my confidence in that pitch. And if I nail that low and away pitch but the batter doesnt swing I lose confidence even if I nailed my intended location.

Individual pitch confidence should be tied to how close you are to your intended location, not just if it's a ball or strike.

[rjackson]

But they are such small increases/decreases it doesn't matter. Like I said, things like whiffs and ball 4 are the big ones.

[Steven78]

It adds up over the course of a game.