I did a quick experiment tonight to test how fast the ball actually comes to the plate in the game.
I used James Shields for the test, 4 Seam fastball, and his Changeup. Everything was thrown right down the pipe.
Pitch Speed Slider = Default
Fastball
Radar speed 93MPH
Time to plate .63 seconds
True speed 66MPH
Changeup
Radar speed 84MPH
Time to plate .76s
True speed 54MPH
Pitch Speed Slider = Minimum
Fastball
Radar speed 91MPH
Time to plate .70s
True speed 59MPH
Changeup
Radar speed 83MPH
Time to plate .82s
True speed 50MPH
Pitch Speed Slider = Maximum
Fastball
Radar speed 92MPH
Time to plate .56s
True speed 74MPH
Changeup
Radar speed 83MPH
Time to plate .72s
True speed 57MPH
This is why changeups are so hard to time, for a pitch to be in the 50's it has to take a much higher trajectory to still be in the air when it crosses the plate. it's not the speed differential that makes it so difficult(differentials are slightly exaggerated, but not as bad as I expected), it's the fact that the ball is magically floating in at 54MPH as it follows the trajectory of an 84MPH pitch.
Here's what a 57 MPH pitch looks like, and you wonder why your brain has a hard time telling you when to hit X?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAv5R3SOQUw
I'm not criticizing how the game handles the physics of pitches, I just wanted to figure out why changeups kill so many of us. I doubt the answer is to make pitch speeds/trajectories in game realistic, anyone capable of hitting Aroldis Chapman will never need to pay $60 to do it.
Boring notes for nay-saying internet PhD's:
- Each pitch was timed in instant replay, from pitchers release to catchers glove.
- Distance used was 60'6" (ball is released forward of the rubber, but the catcher is set back, call it offsetting.)
- I measured each pitch 10 times, threw out highs and lows and averaged 8. - Finger malfunctions were ignored as well.