Range Factor ??

[HozAndMoose]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigd51

Would anyone by chance have a link to a good site that explains, in detail, what the more advanced stats like range factor and the others mean and how they translate to on field performance? I've always wondered how to use the actual advanced numbers in the game when making roster decisions. I tried searching, but couldn't come up with much. I just want to be able to understand the metrics behind it all.

Fangraphs is the best place i know of.

Offense - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense
Defense - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense
Pitching - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching

[bigd51]

Quote: Originally Posted by HozAndMoose

Fangraphs is the best place i know of. Offense - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense Defense - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense Pitching - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching

Thanks man, I appreciate that.

[bigd51]

So, after reading the offensive stats explanation, I assume from the article that wOBA, wRC+, and BABIP are the 3 most important stats for a hitter?

Since the game has none of those listed as stats for a hitter, what would you guys say would be the stats in the game to look at when evaluating?

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigd51

So, after reading the offensive stats explanation, I assume from the article that wOBA, wRC+, and BABIP are the 3 most important stats for a hitter? Since the game has none of those listed as stats for a hitter, what would you guys say would be the stats in the game to look at when evaluating?

You could use Batting Runs (how many runs above league average his production is worth - similar to RAA, which is a component of WAR). Batting Runs + Basestealing runs probably gives you a solid total offensive picture of his run value.

There is RC, which isn't too bad either.

SLOB corrleates to run value decently well, too. It's OBP * SLG, which is a cousin to the more well known OPS (OBP + SLG). Sadly, I can't find the comparison chart I once saw of all the correlations to runs scored, but SLOB and OPS were close to each other.

BABIP is easy enough to calculate, so if you were curious about some guys it wouldn't be hard to figure. It is interesting though that it shows for pitchers but not hitters but is less a "pure" skill for pitchers than hitters (pitchers can influence their BABIP allowed, but there's a lot that they can't do anything about either - at least irl...The Show is different due to H/9 and it's influence on the game engine).

The only problem with BABIP is it's hard to know what a guy "should" have based on his ratings. A guy might check in with a .260 BABIP, which is much below average (assuming the league in MLBTS is around .300 like the real MLB), but without knowing if, say, his 60 contact and 40 power should be doing that or not, it's harder to tell if that .260 is because of "bad luck" or if he is just doing what he should be as a below average hitter.

Also, without having a batted ball profile (different batted ball types have different expected BABIP), it's a piece of missing information. This brings up a problem with The Show...hitters don't have a batted ball tendency like real hitters and the engine is too random with batted ball types for both hitters and pitchers, even when using influencing on Directional. I still have a hard time getting Chris Davis to hit 50% flyballs or Yelich 60% ground balls, for example.

So I wouldn't worry a ton about BABIP other than either to find very high or very low values or as just a "I wonder what he has" sort of thing.

[bigd51]

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

You could use Batting Runs (how many runs above league average his production is worth - similar to RAA, which is a component of WAR). Batting Runs + Basestealing runs probably gives you a solid total offensive picture of his run value. There is RC, which isn't too bad either. SLOB corrleates to run value decently well, too. It's OBP * SLG, which is a cousin to the more well known OPS (OBP + SLG). Sadly, I can't find the comparison chart I once saw of all the correlations to runs scored, but SLOB and OPS were close to each other. BABIP is easy enough to calculate, so if you were curious about some guys it wouldn't be hard to figure. It is interesting though that it shows for pitchers but not hitters but is less a "pure" skill for pitchers than hitters (pitchers can influence their BABIP allowed, but there's a lot that they can't do anything about either - at least irl...The Show is different due to H/9 and it's influence on the game engine). The only problem with BABIP is it's hard to know what a guy "should" have based on his ratings. A guy might check in with a .260 BABIP, which is much below average (assuming the league in MLBTS is around .300 like the real MLB), but without knowing if, say, his 60 contact and 40 power should be doing that or not, it's harder to tell if that .260 is because of "bad luck" or if he is just doing what he should be as a below average hitter. Also, without having a batted ball profile (different batted ball types have different expected BABIP), it's a piece of missing information. This brings up a problem with The Show...hitters don't have a batted ball tendency like real hitters and the engine is too random with batted ball types for both hitters and pitchers, even when using influencing on Directional. I still have a hard time getting Chris Davis to hit 50% flyballs or Yelich 60% ground balls, for example. So I wouldn't worry a ton about BABIP other than either to find very high or very low values or as just a "I wonder what he has" sort of thing.

Gracias, Senor. You kill it with the details on a lot of this stuff, you should probably consider writing a guide of sorts in the future.

It's driving me nuts though in my franchises where I'll have a guy with 80 contact and 90 vision/discipline ending the seasons with .250 averages while another guy in my lineup will have 60 vision/disc./contact hitting .280 every year. I can never tell what's affecting them, so I figured this may help a little more to look at the advanced stats as well.

Another question... do you change your lineup regularly to match the numbers throughout the season? Or do you just set and forget? And if you do change them frequently, how to you choose who bats where based on the advanced stats?

[HozAndMoose]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigd51

Gracias, Senor. You kill it with the details on a lot of this stuff, you should probably consider writing a guide of sorts in the future. It's driving me nuts though in my franchises where I'll have a guy with 80 contact and 90 vision/discipline ending the seasons with .250 averages while another guy in my lineup will have 60 vision/disc./contact hitting .280 every year. I can never tell what's affecting them, so I figured this may help a little more to look at the advanced stats as well. Another question... do you change your lineup regularly to match the numbers throughout the season? Or do you just set and forget? And if you do change them frequently, how to you choose who bats where based on the advanced stats?

For me a good season means ill change the line up 1 times. So i set it at the start. Then change it at the break. If the season goes to hell it might change 5 times. I always give a lineup a month though. But the CPU changes your lineup when simming anyway so sometimes it really doesnt even matter.

As for what to look for when changing it - http://www.operationsports.com/forum...struction.html

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigd51

Another question... do you change your lineup regularly to match the numbers throughout the season? Or do you just set and forget? And if you do change them frequently, how to you choose who bats where based on the advanced stats?

I will change but not too often. I have to see at least a couple hundred PAs from an everyday player to start considering taking him out of the lineup. Even then, it depends on what else he does.

For example, I have a guy named Matt Baldwin. He's doing dreadfully bad at the plate and it's into June so it's more than just a slow start. However, his defense is awesome. It doesn't show up in range factor (for a variety of reasons) but he tracks down plenty of flyballs. So I keep him in for that and hope his bat comes around.

For smaller moves like moving him in the batting order, I'll make some changes more often then if I think it can help. When I had Carlos Gonzalez in my last season, I had my 3-4-5 as Davis, CarGo, Stanton. But Stanton was seeing nothing to hit, so I switched #4 and #5. I don't mind walks with CarGo because he has some speed/stealing and not quite as much power - Stanton, his value is mostly in his killer power.

For my bottom of the order, they are all basically the same hitter (60-70 contact, 40ish power) - the one with the best performances overall get moved higher, and I use the advanced metrics to help make that determination.

It also helps me determine who to put in if I have multiple options off the bench. Like if Stanton is tired, I've been using Eric Young, Jr. more than Nori Aoki because Young, Jr. has been a notch better. If none of them are doing well, I'll risk them playing tired unless they just do poorly. For a short stretch like that - running BABIP isn't too annoying and I can combine that with the "eye test" (how they looked in actual games).

[bigd51]

Quote: Originally Posted by HozAndMoose

For me a good season means ill change the line up 1 times. So i set it at the start. Then change it at the break. If the season goes to hell it might change 5 times. I always give a lineup a month though. But the CPU changes your lineup when simming anyway so sometimes it really doesnt even matter. As for what to look for when changing it - http://www.operationsports.com/forum...struction.html

Wow, I missed this thread recently, so again, thanks for the reference.

I noticed that about the computer changing your lineup in simmed games. I don't really know how I feel about it because they'll make pregame adjustments to the lineup instead of sticking with what you set and making adjustments in game. I had a player who had great batting skills, but poor defensive stats and another player at the same position with great D but poor O and the CPU would keep playing the defensive guy over the offensive guy, even though the offensive guy is who I wanted starting. So, to prevent the CPU from taking him out, I had to move him to another position so the CPU would use the offensive guy.

I hope that makes sense. haha.

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

I will change but not too often. I have to see at least a couple hundred PAs from an everyday player to start considering taking him out of the lineup. Even then, it depends on what else he does. For example, I have a guy named Matt Baldwin. He's doing dreadfully bad at the plate and it's into June so it's more than just a slow start. However, his defense is awesome. It doesn't show up in range factor (for a variety of reasons) but he tracks down plenty of flyballs. So I keep him in for that and hope his bat comes around. For smaller moves like moving him in the batting order, I'll make some changes more often then if I think it can help. When I had Carlos Gonzalez in my last season, I had my 3-4-5 as Davis, CarGo, Stanton. But Stanton was seeing nothing to hit, so I switched #4 and #5. I don't mind walks with CarGo because he has some speed/stealing and not quite as much power - Stanton, his value is mostly in his killer power. For my bottom of the order, they are all basically the same hitter (60-70 contact, 40ish power) - the one with the best performances overall get moved higher, and I use the advanced metrics to help make that determination. It also helps me determine who to put in if I have multiple options off the bench. Like if Stanton is tired, I've been using Eric Young, Jr. more than Nori Aoki because Young, Jr. has been a notch better. If none of them are doing well, I'll risk them playing tired unless they just do poorly. For a short stretch like that - running BABIP isn't too annoying and I can combine that with the "eye test" (how they looked in actual games).

Nice insight. I'm going to have to go back and read over the range factor explanation again and see if I can start using these advanced stats more in determining why my players perform certain ways. I get guys who play for worse teams performing well, then get on my team, and start performing poorly. Or vice versa... plays poorly in my lineup, gets traded to another team and starts to explode on offense. Hopefully the advanced stats can tell me why.

By the way, I don't know what it is about Eric Young, but using him for the Braves when playing games instead of simming, I was always able to get clutch hits batting with him. Seemed like know matter what situation, more times than not, I'd always come through with a clutch single and many times doubles and triples. Even a few inside the parks.