Here are complete pitch results from a game on All Star, default sliders, only swung ONCE (couldn't resist...).
From year 2 in my Twins Franchise vs. Indians. Opposing pitchers were Danny Salazar (64 bb/9) who lasted 6 innings and Zach McAllister (59 bb/9) who pitched the final 3. My lineup is as follows:
Byron Buxton
Orlando Arcia
Miguel Sano
SCEA rookie
Jorge Soler
SCEA rookie
SCEA rookie
Alan Hansen
John Ryan Murphy
SCEA rookies will be abbreviated CP (created player) and blown calls by the ump are noted in parentheses as BC.
BB: 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 4-2 WALK
OA: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 K
MS: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 K
CP: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3 K
JS: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
CP: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 (bc), 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 K
CP: 1-0, 2-0 (bc), 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 K
AH: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 K
JM: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 4-2 WALK
BB: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
OA: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 K
MS: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2, 4-2 WALK
CP: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
JS: 1-0 (BC), 1-1, 2-1 (BC), 3-1, 4-1 WALK
CP: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2, 3-3 K
CP: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 K
AH: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 K
JM: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
BB: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 K
OA: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 3-1 (BC), 3-2, 3-3 K
MS: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 K
CP: 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 (BC), 1-3 K
JS: 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 4-2 WALK (PITCHING CHANGE)
CP: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 K
CP: 0-1, 1-1 (BC), 1-2, 2-2 (BC), 2-3 K
AH: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
JM: 1-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 3-2 (BC), 4-2 (BC) WALK
BB: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 K
OA: 1-0 (BC), 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2 HIT, WOULD HAVE BEEN STRIKE 3
MS: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3 (BC)
CP: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2, 2-3 K
JS: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 K
CP: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3 K
CP: 0-1, 0-2, 0-3
There were 13 blown calls in the game, most of them favoring the hitter. The number of blown calls is probably realistic, but the distribution seems wrong.
SIX total walks, only swinging once on a full count. Walks would probably be higher if I swung more, assuming I were a robot with perfect h/e coordination. The cpu adapts, and if you don't swing, it will throw more strikes -- right?
What's the best count to swing on? -- this seems to me to be the best question to ask.
First pitch First pitch strike 19/33 times (58%)
1-0 count Next pitch a strike 9/14 times (64%)
2-0 count Next pitch a strike 4/5 times (80%)
3-0 count Only occurred once, next pitch was a strike
1-1 count Next pitch a strike 10/19 times (53%)
1-2 count Next pitch a strike 5/14 times (36%)
2-1 count Next pitch a strike 10/14 times (71%)
2-2 count Next pitch a strike 11/19 times (58%)
3-1 count Next pitch a strike 4/5 times (80%)
3-2 count Next pitch a strike 7/11 times (64%)
0-1 count Next pitch a strike 9/19 times (47%)
0-2 count Next pitch a strike 5/9 times (56%)
In 33 at bats, I had 25 meatball counts (2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1) -- some occurring in the same at-bat, of course -- and 19 times the next pitch was a strike. 76% strike percentage, with the best counts being 2-0 and 3-1 by far. So, it's obvious, right? Try to get to those counts. Easy!
Be selective early.
Read and react on neutral counts, which is MOST OF THE TIME.
Be aggressive on meatball counts.
Be defensive a pray on pitcher's counts. Or be aggressive and K.
All that damn work, for what? For what we already KNEW...sheesh
Time to go do something productive...
THERE SHOULD BE AN AT-BAT FLOW CHART BASED OFF THIS.
But I'm not doing it...