Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

[underdog13]

Title says it all, currently in Mlb the league is on pace to break the total hr record by a wide margin. And that's not counting the uptick in Hr's that occur in july/august.

When the game first released, a large majority (me included) complained about the amount of hr's and velocity off the bat. Sds has since patched and altered the hitting, to the communities request. Now currently it seems the gameplay doesn't represent the state of the MLB with this new ball they have.

Thoughts?



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[bcruise]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

The game should have never allowed us to hit 600 ft+ HR's, period (or to regularly hit them around 480 with low-midrange power guys). Under any settings, wind conditions or whatever else. There were two long threads about this in the days following release, and both of them were very valid concerns. Several of us had to resort to turning off the game's wind effect to keep HR numbers in the ballpark of reality.

It was not right out of the box, and it needed to be changed.

And, seeing as I'm still hitting HR's with midrange power guys (of normal distances) right now on HOF default, I think they they hit the mark based on my own experiences.

[Caulfield]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

I dont think it was a risky move for SDS to kick power up a notch for 17. Like bc says, it was the HR distances that needed tweaked. 2016 barely missed out on passing the 2000 season as the benchmark for homers:
2017 ~ 1.27 HR Per Game
2000 ~ 1.17 HRPG
2016 ~ 1.16 HRPG
1999 ~ 1.14 HRPG

3 months to go, I still expect that 1.27 to decrease to closer to last years 1.17

still, its crazy to think 2014 only averaged .86 HRPG
such a wild swing from one end to the other, there has to be some external factor at play here.
has anyone bothered to count and make sure there are still 216 stitches in the ball lol

[underdog13]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

I dont think it was a risky move for SDS to kick power up a notch for 17. Like bc says, it was the HR distances that needed tweaked. 2016 barely missed out on passing the 2000 season as the benchmark for homers:
2017 ~ 1.27 HR Per Game
2000 ~ 1.17 HRPG
2016 ~ 1.16 HRPG
1999 ~ 1.14 HRPG

3 months to go, I still expect that 1.27 to decrease to closer to last years 1.17

still, its crazy to think 2014 only averaged .86 HRPG
such a wild swing from one end to the other, there has to be some external factor at play here.
has anyone bothered to count and make sure there are still 216 stitches in the ball lol

Yeah I'm sure it is something to do with the ball, nothing else really explains the jump from 2015 pre asg to post asg.

[rjackson]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

I read an article the other day that showed the stitches were not as high which would lessen the break on breaking pitches. The core was also very slightly tighter/harder. This ball came into play the 2nd half of last year, which is also when the uptick started. I could see SDS noticing that indirectly via individual player ratings. They have a formula for ratings that they have never shared with us for proprietary reasons. It might have changed with the new data available from statcast - wonder if that might have caused the 600 foot HR's.

[Greencollarbaseball]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

Yeah I'm sure it is something to do with the ball, nothing else really explains the jump from 2015 pre asg to post asg.

Except Statcast. Statcast was introduced in 2015 and since then more and more hitting coaches are teaching swings that improve launch angle. This is also resulting in more strikeouts, 8.21 k/9 this year compared to 7.70 k/9 in 2014. I've listened to several broadcasts this year where the strikeout isn't really considered a bad out anymore.


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[underdog13]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

Except Statcast. Statcast was introduced in 2015 and since then more and more hitting coaches are teaching swings that improve launch angle. This is also resulting in more strikeouts, 8.21 k/9 this year compared to 7.70 k/9 in 2014. I've listened to several broadcasts this year where the strikeout isn't really considered a bad out anymore.


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Oh I'm sure that definitely contributes. But it was like a light switch. Pre allstar game 2015 / post allstar game 2015

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[Greencollarbaseball]

Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

Oh I'm sure that definitely contributes. But it was like a light switch. Pre allstar game 2015 / post allstar game 2015

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EDIT: my bad, I don't know what stats I was looking at for 2015, your right there was a jump from .95 to 1.08 hr/g in 2015.

I think the main reason for the jump in the second half of 2015 is because hitting coaches had a half season worth of data and they started to make changes. Because if the ball was secretly changed with lower seams I don't think you would have seen the jump in strikeouts like we did. 7.57 k/9 to 7.88 k/9. If anything you would have to assume that it would have gone down based on the ball not moving as much.



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[BeatArmy]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

3 months to go, I still expect that 1.27 to decrease to closer to last years 1.17

I say this with all due respect but based on what, exactly? Arlington is about to hit 100 every day, Toronto's roof is going to be open lots now (and the ball screams out when it is), Atlanta has lots more home games the rest of the year and the ball flies out there. If anything, I'd expect it to increase even further.

That being said, Cubs sent down Schwarber today so perhaps not.

[rtwilli4]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

I dont think it was a risky move for SDS to kick power up a notch for 17. Like bc says, it was the HR distances that needed tweaked. 2016 barely missed out on passing the 2000 season as the benchmark for homers:

2017 ~ 1.27 HR Per Game

2000 ~ 1.17 HRPG

2016 ~ 1.16 HRPG

1999 ~ 1.14 HRPG



3 months to go, I still expect that 1.27 to decrease to closer to last years 1.17



still, its crazy to think 2014 only averaged .86 HRPG

such a wild swing from one end to the other, there has to be some external factor at play here.

has anyone bothered to count and make sure there are still 216 stitches in the ball lol

There are 108 stitches on a baseball ;-)

The seems are flatter though; this has been pointed out by more than one player. Flatter seems mean the ball flys further. There was a study done that showed that ever since the All Star break 2015, the ball was flying 7.1 feet further at the same launch angle and exit velocity.

There is also the launch angle argument which is supported by the increase in strikeouts. This has seemed obvious to me for a while now. Players are trying to hit HR more now than ever before.

Both are contributing to more home runs being hit by non-power hitters... so your 10-15 hr guys, their warning track shots have turned into home runs. This is where the increase is coming from, not from guys like Bryce Harper. His home run count wouldn't have gone up because most of his HR are well over the fence.





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[Greencollarbaseball]

Re: Was SDS right all along? 2017 is on pace to have the most total home runs by far

I say this with all due respect but based on what, exactly? Arlington is about to hit 100 every day, Toronto's roof is going to be open lots now (and the ball screams out when it is), Atlanta has lots more home games the rest of the year and the ball flies out there. If anything, I'd expect it to increase even further.

That being said, Cubs sent down Schwarber today so perhaps not.

I think it has to do with the fact that outside of 2015, homeruns per game numbers traditionally drop in the second half of the season. Most likely reason is because players are starting to get tired.


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