Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

[da_centa_fielda]

I'm really not understanding why this is even a thing in this game. I can throw a couple breaking pitches and change ups. Then follow it up with a high 90s or 100+mph fastball and they swing early.

Makes me thing the game has predetermined outcomes before each pitch is thrown.

[underdog13]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

Why do I swing early on 100mph fastballs? Idk either.

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[KBLover]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

Makes me thing the game has predetermined outcomes before each pitch is thrown.

I don't know - I've seen what you've described...but then I've seen them respond "naturally" to timing differences.

I think it might be something like:

-You pick a pitch.

-AI has a certain timing accuracy based on ratings (K/9, Velocity rating, Contact, Vision), user input success (if applicable, for example, pulse or meter), pitcher release (may be determined by aforementioned user success depending on interface), and related sliders (User control, CPU contact, CPU timing)

-The AI is off by X and the game engine renders that and calculates the physics and contact chances.

-The result is rendered (swing and miss in this case).

The fact it might be off in "odd" ways is more the culprit. I don't think it's predetermined, per se. I think the "geared speed" might need more weight at least in determining the type of timing error likely (change vs 100 MPH heater - AI geared to/sitting on ~84 MPH (your pitcher's CH average velocity determined by his CH velocity rating), he should lean late with his errors).

Of course, I'm just spitballing, but it's how I envision what's happening.

[Blzer]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

I don't know - I've seen what you've described...but then I've seen them respond "naturally" to timing differences.

I think it might be something like:

-You pick a pitch.

-AI has a certain timing accuracy based on ratings (K/9, Velocity rating, Contact, Vision), user input success (if applicable, for example, pulse or meter), pitcher release (may be determined by aforementioned user success depending on interface), and related sliders (User control, CPU contact, CPU timing)

-The AI is off by X and the game engine renders that and calculates the physics and contact chances.

-The result is rendered (swing and miss in this case).

The fact it might be off in "odd" ways is more the culprit. I don't think it's predetermined, per se. I think the "geared speed" might need more weight at least in determining the type of timing error likely (change vs 100 MPH heater - AI geared to/sitting on ~84 MPH (your pitcher's CH average velocity determined by his CH velocity rating), he should lean late with his errors).

Of course, I'm just spitballing, but it's how I envision what's happening.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kD-AXgYO0lo" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>


Kidding, that's probably how it works out. It is artificial intelligence, after all. When I was programming, I always found it harder to dumb down an AI rather than smarten them. It was about how far they could see in scope really, and how much randomness kicks in versus weighed probabilities.

As you stated, there are calculations in play and the game may not necessarily account for the logic of the occurrence as much as it does the probability of the outcome. Probably not the easiest thing to program, at least not without users cheesing the game by possibly exploiting a weakness... but I too sometimes question how on earth it is the computer can counter what I sometimes deem to be the greatest pitch sequence, or something or another. Same with them throwing pitch-outs when I attempt to steal bases. It's like we have one brain!

[Caulfield]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

Makes me thing the game has predetermined outcomes before each pitch is thrown.

If this is indeed how the A.I. operates, how should it proceed?
I'm a bad example to cite, because I am Mendoza at hitting,
but I swing early at heat all the time (& late at curves & changeups too).

[KBLover]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

Kidding, that's probably how it works out. It is artificial intelligence, after all. When I was programming, I always found it harder to dumb down an AI rather than smarten them. It was about how far they could see in scope really, and how much randomness kicks in versus weighed probabilities.

As you stated, there are calculations in play and the game may not necessarily account for the logic of the occurrence as much as it does the probability of the outcome. Probably not the easiest thing to program, at least not without users cheesing the game by possibly exploiting a weakness... but I too sometimes question how on earth it is the computer can counter what I sometimes deem to be the greatest pitch sequence, or something or another. Same with them throwing pitch-outs when I attempt to steal bases. It's like we have one brain!

That clip though.

Stealing is an interesting one, considering it feels more like a mini-game though sometimes an intense one, especially if you're trying to move an important runner along.

Little tip offs that the CPU pitcher might be up to something (I'll step out of the box). Or when they will call for pitch outs (if I fear pitch outs, I'll wait until 2 balls or yolo it on 2 strikes, hoping the pitcher is more about getting me to chase in the dirt and not a "kinda pitchout" miss).

Worst one for me is sudden great pickoff move, especially since I use auto baserunning (boy do I wish they would have left manual steals in even with auto baserunning...or have a toggle for that). Extra points if it's not a pitcher with the "Pickoff Artist" trait. Next is the pitch out you describe...though I think part of THAT is also pattern recognition. I always try to vary counts I call for steals on for that reason, especially early in the PA.

Sadly, we can never rule out input reading, especially in a console video game. I think it would be more applicable for the steal cat-and-mouse than for the batter-pitcher confrontation. CPU doesn't know if you'll swing or what you're looking for (tries to guess based on your pattern). It could input read your pitch selection...but then it wouldn't swing early at fastballs.

[da_centa_fielda]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

If this is indeed how the A.I. operates, how should it proceed?
I'm a bad example to cite, because I am Mendoza at hitting,
but I swing early at heat all the time (& late at curves & changeups too).

I do too some times. But I attribute that to it just being difficult to read pitches on a screen and press a button to initiate a swing.

In all my years of actually playing the sport, not once have I swung early at a fastball. Especially if I knew the guy had a good breaking pitch that I had to respect.

I think it's near impossible to see 2-3 pitches in the low 80s then get a fastball in the high 90s and swing early.

Even when guys are throwing nothing but heat, batters are still late.

[knich]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

I agree this is an issue SDS should address but don't agree with pre-determined outcomes theory.

[nomo17k]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

While I think the batter AI has improved gradually over the years, what it still does not do well, in my opinion, is how it does not get fooled as organically (i.e., fooled like humans do).

In terms of swing timing, one of the biggest difference I see between human and CPU is how different each responds to some pitch sequence that sets up to fool by timing.

For example, try throwing only fastballs for a while, and you'd expect human hitters to be set up to anticipate only a fastball on the next pitch. If you suddenly lay an off-speed pitch, then you would expect the batter to swing early on it. Online against human players, this is indeed what often happens (keep throwing high and tight fastballs, and typically skilled players would start trying to pull it for a long ball).

But not so against CPU. More often than not, it actually doesn't get fooled by swinging early on the fist off-speed pitch after a long string of fastball-only sequence.

This probably is due to the AI implementation along the line of what KBLover implied (though I don't exactly fully understand what he meant)... that swing timing may be modulated by AI as offset according to each pitch type/speed and based on player attributes and such, but it doesn't clearly develop a notion of speed differential in terms of pitch sequence and, consequently, AI does not act like it swings early on an off-speed pitch when it anticipates a fastball (it swings late on a fastball when it anticipates an off-speed pitch) after being set up. (As a side effect, it can even swing (somewhat unnaturally) very early on a fastball when the modulation is symmetric around being early/late... that is probably what OP saw, and I do see it sometimes as well.)

In addition, I think CPU really does not have a human-like concept in reaction timing. What I mean is that human batters can get fooled really, really badly with a pitcher with very high speed differential between his fastball and change-up (a frequent complaint among pitch editors). This is the reason why James McDonald used to be one of the best starting pitchers in online and Pat Neshek these days is one of the most popular relievers online. Against those pitchers, one has to sit on one and just try to let another go.

But CPU actually does not get fooled by a wide speed differentials like this. Even when you mix fastball and change-up fairly randomly, CPU does not get fooled in swing timing as humans do. Or more precisely, I feel CPU is (for the lack of better word) faking the state of being fooled by modulating timing offset to each pitch, but it doesn't seem to be really "measuring" the pitch speed, hence it is insensitive to the unusual speed differentials that pitchers like McDonald and Neshek do.

All this I'm just saying from my impression so in detail I'm sure I'm getting things wrong. But without knowing the underlying detail, that is how the difference feels when I compare pitching to CPU and human players online. There are some distinct differences in how the "brain" behind the batters work when I actively try to set them up. I often feel CPU doesn't respond to being set up.

[KBLover]

Re: Why does the AI swing early on 100mph fastballs?

This probably is due to the AI implementation along the line of what KBLover implied (though I don't exactly fully understand what he meant)... that swing timing may be modulated by AI as offset according to each pitch type/speed and based on player attributes and such, but it doesn't clearly develop a notion of speed differential in terms of pitch sequence and, consequently, AI does not act like it swings early on an off-speed pitch when it anticipates a fastball (it swings late on a fastball when it anticipates an off-speed pitch) after being set up.

Basically what I was saying - trying to break it into a step-by-step process that the code might be going through and what variables are potentially in play to create a "he got fooled, make him swing bad" without a nod to how hitters get fooled or how/what actually fooled the CPU and why.

In addition, I think CPU really does not have a human-like concept in reaction timing. What I mean is that human batters can get fooled really, really badly with a pitcher with very high speed differential between his fastball and change-up (a frequent complaint among pitch editors). This is the reason why James McDonald used to be one of the best starting pitchers in online and Pat Neshek these days is one of the most popular relievers online. Against those pitchers, one has to sit on one and just try to let another go.

But CPU actually does not get fooled by a wide speed differentials like this. Even when you mix fastball and change-up fairly randomly, CPU does not get fooled in swing timing as humans do. Or more precisely, I feel CPU is (for the lack of better word) faking the state of being fooled by modulating timing offset to each pitch, but it doesn't seem to be really "measuring" the pitch speed, hence it is insensitive to the unusual speed differentials that pitchers like McDonald and Neshek do.

And this is pretty much what I was talking about with the "geared speed" that the CPU is looking to hit. A more baseball term is what the CPU is sitting on based on what you've thrown in that PA.

I agree with you - a lot of times the CPU doesn't get fooled because of the other processes above (i.e. ratings, confidence levels, sliders, etc.) dictate that the CPU "read" it without actually having to read the pitch.

Along with the system I've seen in other games with "sitting on" a speed is the difficulty in adjusting from that speed...and how much hitters get fooled being out front or behind pitches based on what they are looking for and what they get - trying to replicate the "organic" timing deception you mention.