Official MLB 19 the Show Trade Discussion

[Dakotabt09]

Quote: Originally Posted by MrSerendipity

Fulmer is worth around 60M, so you can easily build a package around a 50-75 Prospect. With that said, he’s out all of 2019 thus he realistically won’t be dealt. This is fine.

Thanks sir. I appreciate it.

[SwampFox]

What would the Dodgers' Chris Taylor's surplus value be? I didn't see him on the chart.

EDIT: I did my own calculation and now I'm trying to make sure the math is right. I used 2016-2018 stats to create the value.

2018 WAR: 3.5
2017 WAR: 4.2
2016 WAR: 0 (35 Games Played)

Did the multiplying method provided and came up with 3.36 WAR (rounded to 3.4)

3.4 WAR X $9M per WAR X 4 Years of Control = 122.4M Surplus Value

Does this look right?

Honestly I'd probably bump his value up another 20-30M as the earliest year he only played in 34 games, likely as a call up from the minors in September (I don't know much about him, but looking at the stats it seems likely).

Would it be fair to value him around $150M?

Not that I plan doing it for now, but it looks like my best shot at a fair trade (imo) would be:

Braves send:
3B Johan Camargo ($121M)
SP Bryce Wilson ($15.1M)
CF Drew Waters ($20.2M)
Surplus Value Total: $156.3M

Dodgers Send:
SS Chris Taylor (~$150M)

Looking at that, I'm not sure I want to sell a lot of young talent for a better bat at shortstop. Although this trade would make Dansby expendable. It's a shame Dansby's bat IRL isn't reflected in game yet

Though, on the other hand, trading for Castellanos earlier in the year gives me the replacement pinch hitting bat I've been using Camargo for mostly to start the year. I could also potentially keep Dansby as the utility infielder with Camargo gone... Not sure it's worth giving up two high end prospects though.

[jdiaz891]

You forgot to subtract his current salary and an estimated salary for those next 4 years. In my opinion it still leaves the value high.

[SwampFox]

Quote: Originally Posted by jdiaz891

You forgot to subtract his current salary and an estimated salary for those next 4 years. In my opinion it still leaves the value high.

ah, I knew I was forgetting something.

Time to recalculate a bit, I did think it was kind of high for him.

So I'll still hold him at about $150M before subtracting salaries. He's due to make 3.5M this year, leaving him at 146.5M in surplus. After this season, he has three years of arbitration, and I'm not very good at calculating how much he'll make in that time, but he'll make at least 3.5M in all of those years which equals at least $10.5M over those years. I'm sure he'll earn close to double that in arbitration, so I'd say he'll make around $21M over his arbitration years. So subtracting that, he'll be worth ~$125.5M, proving that the trade above was way more than his value (as I initially thought)

So something like Camargo and a lotto ticket prospect would be more acceptable? Camargo could step into the starter role for the Dodgers next year if they elect not to bring back Justin Turner (I'm personally considering resigning Josh Donaldson to a two year contract, so Camargo is still stuck in limbo on my roster).

[MrSerendipity]

Quote: Originally Posted by SwampFox

ah, I knew I was forgetting something. Time to recalculate a bit, I did think it was kind of high for him. So I'll still hold him at about $150M before subtracting salaries. He's due to make 3.5M this year, leaving him at 146.5M in surplus. After this season, he has three years of arbitration, and I'm not very good at calculating how much he'll make in that time, but he'll make at least 3.5M in all of those years which equals at least $10.5M over those years. I'm sure he'll earn close to double that in arbitration, so I'd say he'll make around $21M over his arbitration years. So subtracting that, he'll be worth ~$125.5M, proving that the trade above was way more than his value (as I initially thought)

I worked the math out for him. He's worth about 88.8M in surplus. Not as high as the value you found but still fairly valuable.

[SwampFox]

I like your value better

To be honest, I'd believe he is less valuable than Camargo in game anyways, as Camargo is an A rated prospect and Taylor is a B.

Thanks for the help. I'm unlikely to make the trade, but it's good to know the value of him if I do indeed decide to go for a bigger bat at SS at the trade deadline. It's too early in my season (24 games) to give up on Dansby yet.

[Buccosback]

Looking to possibly make a trade to secure some depth. had a few injuries at shortstop and Cole Tucker is doing fine but need Utility infielder. Mariners outfield has been terrible aside from Haniger and Smith. Also would open a spot for JP Crawford. Mariners sit just below .500 at 33-35. Pirates sit at 32-31.

Mid-June trade proposal:

Pirates Receive:
SS Tim Beckham .223avg .677OPS

Mariners Receive:
OF Lonnie Chisenhall .125avg .537OPS
C Jacob Stallings .227avg .591OPS or RP Brandon Maurer who is in the minors

[SwampFox]

Quote: Originally Posted by Buccosback

Looking to possibly make a trade to secure some depth. had a few injuries at shortstop and Cole Tucker is doing fine but need Utility infielder. Mariners outfield has been terrible aside from Haniger and Smith. Also would open a spot for JP Crawford. Mariners sit just below .500 at 33-35. Pirates sit at 32-31. Mid-June trade proposal: Pirates Receive: SS Tim Beckham .223avg .677OPS Mariners Receive: OF Lonnie Chisenhall .125avg .537OPS C Jacob Stallings .227avg .591OPS or RP Brandon Maurer who is in the minors

According to the chart, Beckham is worth about $12M in surplus, while Chisenhall is worth $5.7M

From what I researched, Jacob Stallings average WAR for the last three years is 0.3 and Brandon Maurer has a career WAR of -3.4 and a career ERA of over 5. I don't think either of these players would be tempting enough along with a struggling Chisenhall for a SS who is at least playing league average.

IMO a more realistic trade (as the Mariners may be considering rebuilding) would be trading a strong prospect for a better haul from the Mariners. Maybe sending a prospect that is top 8-15 in your organization? I'm struggling to actually create a trade as full rosters aren't in front of me, but I would start there. Or if you want Chisenhall to be a piece of the trade, do him and a B or C rated prospect that has a few years before he's league-ready.