Prospect Progression?

[rickpersak]

Just curious if you guys have ever seen a prospect with "A" potential just not really hit well at all in the minors?

I have Victor Victor Mesa in my Marlins franchise and no matter which minor league system I put him in, he always hits like .217 with like 5 home runs and very minimal RBIs by the end of the season. He has "A" potential too which makes me curious as to why he wouldn't be mashing in the minors. I understand he's not a power hitter in real life as I've done some scouting but I'd expect him to be hitting closer to .300 or even over it.

If he's not going to hit well in the minors it makes me very hesitant to promote him to the majors.

[kinsmen7]

Quote: Originally Posted by rickpersak

Just curious if you guys have ever seen a prospect with "A" potential just not really hit well at all in the minors? I have Victor Victor Mesa in my Marlins franchise and no matter which minor league system I put him in, he always hits like .217 with like 5 home runs and very minimal RBIs by the end of the season. He has "A" potential too which makes me curious as to why he wouldn't be mashing in the minors. I understand he's not a power hitter in real life as I've done some scouting but I'd expect him to be hitting closer to .300 or even over it. If he's not going to hit well in the minors it makes me very hesitant to promote him to the majors.

I've got Mesa in my franchise as well. First season, I've got him in AA and he's hitting .244 in June after a very slow start.

I have no intention of pushing him to the majors until at least May-June 2020, and only if he's on a hot streak in AAA.

Important to remember that in real life, sometimes prospects hit their potential, but often times they don't.

I think Mesa's scouting report re: his offense, really reflects what both of us are seeing:

"Scouts are less certain about Mesa's offensive upside. He makes consistent contact, but he doesn't drive the ball much with a relatively flat right-handed swing and he puts the bat on the ball so easily that he doesn't walk much. He could wind up as a faster version of Albert Almora and may not require much time in the Minors."

He's also hitting .227/.273/.247 in high A IRL.

[rickpersak]

Quote: Originally Posted by kinsmen7

I've got Mesa in my franchise as well. First season, I've got him in AA and he's hitting .244 in June after a very slow start. I have no intention of pushing him to the majors until at least May-June 2020, and only if he's on a hot streak in AAA. Important to remember that in real life, sometimes prospects hit their potential, but often times they don't. I think Mesa's scouting report re: his offense, really reflects what both of us are seeing: "Scouts are less certain about Mesa's offensive upside. He makes consistent contact, but he doesn't drive the ball much with a relatively flat right-handed swing and he puts the bat on the ball so easily that he doesn't walk much. He could wind up as a faster version of Albert Almora and may not require much time in the Minors." He's also hitting .227/.273/.247 in high A IRL.

Yeah good point. I think I might be too impatient sometimes with these prospects and just expect them to be MLB ready within the first 2 years of them being drafted.

[Therebelyell626]

I have had tons of top propsects just not hit therefore not progress. I have also had tons of C and B prospects turn into the best players in the organization. With a guy like Mesa I would stick him in single A for a little while until he is double A ready. Single A is perfect for this because players will progress a bit without regressing since the games are not played.

That way he can improve over the first year and be ready for double A hopefully by year 2. I like to wait until a propsects contact stats are at least 50 against at least one handedness other wise they have a good chance of never progressing. The progression is much more production based then years past and prosoects really can get stuck in the minors if they don't hit.

[rickpersak]

Quote: Originally Posted by Therebelyell626

I have had tons of top propsects just not hit therefore not progress. I have also had tons of C and B prospects turn into the best players in the organization. With a guy like Mesa I would stick him in single A for a little while until he is double A ready. Single A is perfect for this because players will progress a bit without regressing since the games are not played. That way he can improve over the first year and be ready for double A hopefully by year 2. I like to wait until a propsects contact stats are at least 50 against at least one handedness other wise they have a good chance of never progressing. The progression is much more production based then years past and prosoects really can get stuck in the minors if they don't hit.

Thanks for the advice man. I'll pick your brain for a few more questions if you don't mind.

Do you happen to know if Single A and Double AA progress slower when players are there than Triple AAA does?

Another question I have is when you move a player from AAA to AA and also from AA to A, does that impact their progression in a negative way at all since they're technically being demoted? Because obviously when you demote a player from MLB to the minors their morale is affected in a negative way.

Mesa, for me, is already in AA and I'd hate for him to be "angry" in the game if I demote him to Single A and not progress as fast in Single A because of this.

Also, do you happen to know if you leave a prospect in AAA for too long, does that hinder his progression at all? I have a stud 3B at 80 overall in AAA and I just don't have the space for him on my MLB team yet until after the current year when a few players leave for Free Agency.

[MightyMaxxx13]

Quote: Originally Posted by rickpersak

Thanks for the advice man. I'll pick your brain for a few more questions if you don't mind. Do you happen to know if Single A and Double AA progress slower when players are there than Triple AAA does? Another question I have is when you move a player from AAA to AA and also from AA to A, does that impact their progression in a negative way at all since they're technically being demoted? Because obviously when you demote a player from MLB to the minors their morale is affected in a negative way. Mesa, for me, is already in AA and I'd hate for him to be "angry" in the game if I demote him to Single A and not progress as fast in Single A because of this. Also, do you happen to know if you leave a prospect in AAA for too long, does that hinder his progression at all? I have a stud 3B at 80 overall in AAA and I just don't have the space for him on my MLB team yet until after the current year when a few players leave for Free Agency.

If a prospect starts to regress you should demote him. If he plays better in the lower level it will begin to reverse the regression. Morale doesn’t affect prospects until they’ve been promoted to the majors during the regular season. Like others have said, leaving a guy in Single-A until his offensive stats are usable is a good way to guard against top prospects washing out in AA/AAA

[Therebelyell626]

Quote: Originally Posted by MightyMaxxx13

If a prospect starts to regress you should demote him. If he plays better in the lower level it will begin to reverse the regression. Morale doesn’t affect prospects until they’ve been promoted to the majors during the regular season. Like others have said, leaving a guy in Single-A until his offensive stats are usable is a good way to guard against top prospects washing out in AA/AAA

I'll piggy back off of what max said. The only time a demotion hurts morale is when it's a 40 man roster player who has a told expectation that's major league proportionate. If a guy is not hitting in triple A or double A and they have potential to be good, I have no problem sending them down a level as to not ruin them. In some cases if a guy continues to under perform their potential will drop. For some reason potentials drop more frequently then they go up.

I have noticed no negative effects of sending a prospect down to single A. Sometimes I will pick up a prospect in a trade who was on another teams triple or double A team that had no business being there after I acquire them. I have seen. I negative effects.

As a rule of thumb I try and keep all 18 and 19 year olds in single A unless they are significantly better than everyone else I have at the next level. Also, once a prospect hits 22 I put them at least at double a regardless of ratings. It's almost a crap or get of the pot situation. They either hit and improve quickly or they flame out. At that point t they are old enough that I have nothing to lose if they flame out so to speak.

The only time I have seen a prospect becomes disengaged or angry for being left in the minors to long is if there expectation is a major league role in the morale screen.

[rickpersak]

Quote: Originally Posted by Therebelyell626

I'll piggy back off of what max said. The only time a demotion hurts morale is when it's a 40 man roster player who has a told expectation that's major league proportionate. If a guy is not hitting in triple A or double A and they have potential to be good, I have no problem sending them down a level as to not ruin them. In some cases if a guy continues to under perform their potential will drop. For some reason potentials drop more frequently then they go up. I have noticed no negative effects of sending a prospect down to single A. Sometimes I will pick up a prospect in a trade who was on another teams triple or double A team that had no business being there after I acquire them. I have seen. I negative effects. As a rule of thumb I try and keep all 18 and 19 year olds in single A unless they are significantly better than everyone else I have at the next level. Also, once a prospect hits 22 I put them at least at double a regardless of ratings. It's almost a crap or get of the pot situation. They either hit and improve quickly or they flame out. At that point t they are old enough that I have nothing to lose if they flame out so to speak. The only time I have seen a prospect becomes disengaged or angry for being left in the minors to long is if there expectation is a major league role in the morale screen.

If/when you draft a prospect who is already 21 or 22, do you typically put them in AAA right away since they're older or do you still stick them in AA or A to build up their stats first?

I typically tend to stay away from the 22 year olds, obviously, since they're older to begin with but sometimes you see one that you can't pass on in the draft.