Player Progression in Franchise

[misterawesome]

How reliable are "A" potential ratings in prospect progression, especially as they're close to MLB?


Relatedly, does user input have a negative impact on player progression?


I'm playing a franchise with the White Sox, using mkharsh33's rosters, where I simmed ahead to 2021. Luis Robert had a bad first season (.180ish, <10hr), and is off to a slow start in 2021.



I'm wondering - is there random chance that he becomes a bust in my save? Or does a high-pedigree prospect progress "automatically" to realize their potential?

[JoseJoseph9119]

Yes, there is a chance that he will bust. His OVR might still increase, but he will still put up poor stats compared to another player. I believe there's some correlation between a player's "completed development "(Potential-OVR) and the stats they put up on the field. So a 80 OVR 26 year old Robert would likely put up worse numbers than a 77 OVR C potential guy.

There's also a chance he turns it around and becomes a beast. It's baseball.

[misterawesome]

Quote: Originally Posted by JoseJoseph9119

Yes, there is a chance that he will bust. His OVR might still increase, but he will still put up poor stats compared to another player. I believe there's some correlation between a player's "completed development "(Potential-OVR) and the stats they put up on the field. So a 80 OVR 26 year old Robert would likely put up worse numbers than a 77 OVR C potential guy. There's also a chance he turns it around and becomes a beast. It's baseball.

Is that developmental variance baked into the game logic? Or would that be coming from the 3rd party rosters I've downloaded? I realize that the creator of the rosters may have adjusted Robert's potential, as well.



I'm somewhat surprised by your example. I presumed that a 77 (OVR C) player would have already reached their potential. Roughly, I figured that A=85+ OVR; B=80-85; C=75-80, etc. I would not expect a 77 OVR/C potential to have any further upside from that 77 OVR rating.


To back to a question from the OP, would my own involvement also impact the player reaching their potential? I hit better with some players/stances than others. I have been thinking that a lower OVR / higher POT player would incrementally improve over time...and, in turn, my performance with that player. But is it possible, if (For example) I'm a free swinger, for me to drive down a players contact ratings?

[tessl]

Stamina and speed always regress at a rate of -1 per year.

Everything else is just an educated guess. It seems performance and potential have an impact.

[JoseJoseph9119]

Quote: Originally Posted by misterawesome

Is that developmental variance baked into the game logic? Or would that be coming from the 3rd party rosters I've downloaded? I realize that the creator of the rosters may have adjusted Robert's potential, as well. I'm somewhat surprised by your example. I presumed that a 77 (OVR C) player would have already reached their potential. Roughly, I figured that A=85+ OVR; B=80-85; C=75-80, etc. I would not expect a 77 OVR/C potential to have any further upside from that 77 OVR rating. To back to a question from the OP, would my own involvement also impact the player reaching their potential? I hit better with some players/stances than others. I have been thinking that a lower OVR / higher POT player would incrementally improve over time...and, in turn, my performance with that player. But is it possible, if (For example) I'm a free swinger, for me to drive down a players contact ratings?

Yes, the 77 guy has reached his potential, so he (anecdotally) performs better. His OVR may not improve, but he might hit .280 with 20 HRs to Robert's .260 and 15, for example. Again, I have no actual PROOF of this, just something I tend to see across years of simmed franchises.

And yes, your performance with them counts just like a sim would. If a guy hits 50 bombs, his power will go up whether you hit them yourself or not. Subsequently, if a guy doesn't get hits because you sucked with him then he won't(dramatically) improve.

I played a whole month of straight cheesing with my AA team. Whole starting lineup hit 20+ HRs. Most guys discipline dipped 2 or 3 points though because I never took a walk.

[Cycloniac]

Quote: Originally Posted by tessl

Stamina and speed always regress at a rate of -1 per year. Everything else is just an educated guess. It seems performance and potential have an impact.

Stamina regresses -1 about every other year, from what I've seen

It's not always -1 every year

[TheWarmWind]

There are no guarantees in progression in this game, and yes, performance can have an impact (but not always).

You usually need to chart a couple years to see if a prospect is truly blue chip, but that doesn't mean the volalite ones aren't worth the time.

My current started SS spent all three of his option years playing in AA and single A, because in spite of half decent attributes and A potential, he could never perform well and never really found his footing.

Once he ran out of options though, he finally flourished. He went straight from playing nearly the entire last season playing A ball to my starting SS, and now is the best SS in all MLB.

You just never know what's going to work with some of these guys, or how they'll progress.

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