Looking into the future: UFC Heavyweight division

[Rau71]

I don't see how Cain or Carwin can grind out Mir. Mir is a wonder ground specialist who is learning out to strike. Cain showed against Congo that he leaves himself open in the stand up game. Mir will exploit that. Mir will also be able to defend a takedown if he wanted to, he might want it on the ground, where is BJJ would be supreme.

[SHO]

Quote: Originally Posted by mgoblue

I guess I don't really see how someone with zero ground game would survive against Lesnar, Mir, or other top HW's...

I still have faith in Kongo. You should, too.

[DTX3]

Quote: Originally Posted by mgoblue

I guess I don't really see how someone with zero ground game would survive against Lesnar, Mir, or other top HW's...

Exactly. Lesnar and Mir would kill Kongo.

[Wet Bandit]

Quote: Originally Posted by Rau71

Cain showed against Congo that he leaves himself open in the stand up game. Mir will exploit that.

Outside of the Big Nog fight, when has Mir ever exploited anyone in the stand up game?

Mir's legend as a striker has been built solely based on that Nog fight, despite years of fights telling us otherwise. And Nog looked terrible in that fight. No head movement, no angles, no footwork, no elusiveness, no leg kicks, no takedown attempts. All Nog basically did was stand still and occasionally paw a jab.

All Mir had to do to outstrike him was to get off first against an aging 32 year old who had been in 10 years worth of wars who was never a great striker to begin with (Big Nog has only won twice by KO/TKO in 37 fights).

Quote: Originally Posted by Rau71

Mir will also be able to defend a takedown if he wanted to...

Maybe in the first round (although Lesnar took him down immediately). But in the second, third, fourth rounds? Mir's cardio has never been even average, and we know Velasquez's cardio is great and we've got every reason to suspect Carwin's is as well. Is Mir going to be able to defend takedowns from powerful wrestlers after the first round?

The biggest thing Mir has going for him is he's got legit jiu jitsu. His submissions are very dangerous, which is why he's got a good chance to beat both Carwin and Velasquez. But the idea that he's gonna exploit their striking or stop them from taking him down whenever they want, that's not Frank Mir.

[DueceDiggla]

The biggest threat to Brock IMO is Nog. Mir to me is not a threat at all, and people are putting way too much stock into him because he beat up a sick Nog.

Cain needs more work and Kongo wouldn't stand a chance against Lesnar.



I think the guys are Nog and Carwin with Mir a distant third.

[Scoop_Brady]

The guy who will beat Lesnar will have very good standup and very good takedown defense. Until there's a contender with great wrestling skills that is his size I don't see any other style winning. Maybe a BJJ guy like Mir who can throw a submission at him that he's never seen before.

What is Carwin's takedown defense like? He's definitely got the power to stop a guy like Brock but he'd have to keep it standing. Also, we still don't know much about Lesnar's striking ability but judging from Heath Herring rolling across the octagon I'd say he has some power so if his striking improves that makes him even more dangerous.

[baumy300]

When Brock gets a little more MMA experience/practice he will be unstoppable until he ages too much to perform at a high level or until some total phenom emerges.

[Keith121212]

These are my thoughts on the contenders in the HW division as it is now. I was initially making a post on Shane Carwin and it just expanded from there. It's long and I'm not the best writer but here are my thoughts:

Shane Carwin is overrated and his win against Gonzaga really wasn't that impressive to me. Gabriel Gonzaga consistently makes mental mistakes in the Octagon that costs him fights. That is his M.O. and he did it in his fight against Carwin. He had Carwin rocked on the verge of getting ko'd and he inexpicably decided to take Carwin down instead of logically finishing him off standing which allowed Carwin to recover then he walked in swinging wildly with his hands down after Carwin got up and got dropped. When Gonzaga doesn't do something stupid, he's a force but his problem is he does something stupid in every loss that ended up costing him. It is what he does.

As for Carwin, his sole bright spot outside of his wrestling is his power. However he's slow in every aspect and his defense is suspect. I don't see him as the future of anything. He's only going to get slower since he's in his mid to late 30's if I recall correctly.

Cain Velasquez has the goods but unfortunately he has that wrestling mentality. Hold them down and don't take chances. At least thats what the "wrestling mentality" looks like to me. Too many wrestlers have problems finishing fights. He faced his first true contender in Cheik Congo and the holes in his stand up got exposed. He had a distinct advantage on the ground but that wrestler came out of him. He should have been able to submit Kongo at the least. I also think he could have knocked him out on the ground if he went all out with the ground and pound but he didn't. He's going to be good but who knows if he'll ever become elite. If you want to be considered elite, you have to be able to finish fights against opponents who you dominate. Bottom line. He still has a lot of potential but his win over Kongo was as disappointing as it was dominant.

Frank Mir is unathletic and his stand up has never been impressive. His sole bright spot is his submission skills which are significant but one can't be one dimensional in MMA and really be successful against elite competition. I personally think his fight against Brock Lesnar is going to go the same way as the first one did except the ref won't save him and he will not be able to catch Lesnar again.

Brock Lesnar has power and explosiveness that can't be taught or developed. As long as he keeps working and improving, its going to take someone with great skills in at least two areas or a fighter as physically imposing as him to beat him. He's too powerful, big and explosive to get beat any other way imo.

Cheik Congo needs to work on his ground game significantly or at at least get to the point where taking him down and holding him there takes a great amount of energy. The way he got taken down and held there in his last fight was just not good at all.

Who else is there? Pat Barry is athletic and a very good striker but his last loss was just an embarassment. He'll come back but just making the mistake he made is almost inexcuseable.

A great prospect or two should come out of TUF 10.

Right now Brock is on top and I personally don't see who is going to beat him if he works hard and he doesn't Pat Barry himself. It'll be interesting to see how Nog comes back. If he looks anything like he did against Mir then its probably time for him to retire.

I wrote way more then I intended to. Thoughts? Comments?