UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare v Hermansson

[johnmangala]

[johnmangala]

■■■■■

John Lineker (-145|$1.6x|6/10) < Cory Sandhagen (+135|$2.3x|4/10)

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SL/m: 5.22 < 8.89
S Acc: 40% < 51%
SSA/m: 3.95 < 2.73
SD: 56% < 65%
TD Avg: 0.52 < 1.64
TD Acc: 60% < 66%
TDD: 69% > 0%
SUB Avg: 0.6 < 1.6

W: Striking, power, body, hooks, pressure, chin; Mix, accuracy, dynamic, subs, TD, brawl
x
L: Cardio, range, evasion; Experience, competition, power, brawl

I expected more people to buy into Sandhagen's hype but he is the underdog in this fight. The line is understandable given the context of their careers so far tho. Lineker is 8-2 in his last 10 and those 2 losses are only to two fighters caught for EPO. That's quite a streak considering only fighters caught for EPO later beat him during that run. It suggests Lineker is in or reaching his prime. That said, I think Sandhagen is a great underdog pick with better a chance to win than most other underdogs tonight. He will likely look to dictate location and pace to wear Lineker out.

Prediction: Sandhagen by SUB, R3
⭑⭑
Result: Sandhagen by SD (29-28)

[Good Grappler]

Okay I had to sign on to EA forums just to say that was fantastic. Glover is the MAN!

[Good Grappler]

Something oddly satisfying about seeing Ion Cutelaba get that *** beat.

Wait now we got Oliveira vs Perry?!!! Are you ****ting me???! This fight card is crazy good!

Definitely gonna switch over to Bellator for the Fitch vs Macdonald fight though. That’s more interesting to me than Souza Hermansson. I’ve been interested in seeing Macdonald vs Fitch for a looong time. For some reason I always had this hunch that Fitch could beat Mac (I actually favor Fitch vs anyone aside from like 4 or 5 guys).

[johnmangala]

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Greg Hardy (-270|$1.3x|7/10) > Dmitry Smoliakov (+250|$3.5x|3/10)

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SL/m: 5.63 > 1.63
S Acc: 50% > 43%
SSA/m: 2.07 > 3.35
SD: 64% > 56%
TD Avg: 0 = 0
TD Acc: 66% < 75%
TDD: 0% = 0%
SUB Avg: 0 = 0

W: Striking, power, pressure, brawl, clinch; Wrestleboxing, mix, TD, overhand, tough
x
L: Experience, TDD, temper, confidence, adversity; Damage, hooks, power

Hardy probably would've been the biggest favorite on this card had he won his last fight. That performance curbed some of the enthusiasm. Smoliakov is a grappling test, being set up to build up Hardy. There are adjustments made according to Hardy, lessons learned from his first loss. Expect him to be more patient and measured.

Prediction: Hardy by KO, R1
⭑⭑
Result: Hardy by TKO (Uppercut & GNP), R1 (2:15)

[johnmangala]

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Jacare Souza (-210|$1.4x|7/10) > Jack Hermansson (+190|$2.9x|3/10)

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SL/m: 2.61 < 4.90
S Acc: 46% < 56%
SSA/m: 2.46 < 1.77
SD: 63% < 64%
TD Avg: 3.01 > 2.38
TD Acc: 41% < 47%
TDD: 53% < 73%
SUB Avg: 1.7 > 0.9

W: Grappling, subs, gnp, power, TD; Grappling, subs, accuracy, combos
x
L: Wear, chin, cardio; Pressure, experience, competition

Most people have Jacare winning this fight. He is a sizable favorite. I think it's a fair line, it opened closer but Jacare has made the spread. Hermansson is taking a big step up in competition and Jacare has beaten all lesser names so far.

Prediction: Jacare by TKO, R2
⭑⭑⭑
Result: Hermansson by DEC (48-47)

[johnmangala]

Impressive performance by Hermansson, showed a lot of resiliency. First fighter to be a submission threat to Jacare in the UFC too.

[p_rushing]

Loved watching that and seeing Jacare get beat. His great BJJ got shut down with a competent opponent and he almost got caught himself. You would have thought the "best" submission fighter would have put up some offense on the ground.

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