Sonicmage's SportsCrunch Ratings

[SonicMage]

Foul tendency has been added to both the post-2000 and pre-2000 sheets.

And, as promised, comparison shots of sim stats with 2k's ratings vs. my own. These were taken using my WIP 2015-16 roster.

Mine:



2K:




2K's teams average about 18 fouls per game, whereas mine are about 19 fouls per game. The real teams average about 20 fouls per game, so we're halfway there! The extra missing fouls would be accounted for when the points in the paint problem gets resolved with the shot distance tendencies.

One thing to notice is several players set at 100. This is because 2k's sim engine hardly ever gives players more than 5.1 fouls per 36 minutes. But in history, even recently, there are several cases of players averaging much more than that, getting as high as 12 fouls per 36. The other weird part is the lower end, where players average about 1.7 fouls if they're set anywhere between zero and 25. It's too bad 2K couldn't set the range a little wider to take advantage of these wasted values and get more fouls.

[SonicMage]

More updates for you all: Shoot From Post, and Roll Vs Pop! These help further distinguish players who like to play closer to the basket vs those who like to do their damage from beyond the arc.

Happy opening week!

P.S. I'm also working to have 2016-17 ratings done, and hope to do weekly updates based on all stats from games played up to that point. Unfortunately, one of the sites I heavily rely on to get data is missing some important info for this season, so I've contacted them; hopefully it'll be resolved soon.

[SteboSSK]

Have you noticed any real increase in FTA for players like Harden or Cousins with your foul tendency discovery? I once applied an increase to foul tendency so I could get fouls for teams to 20-21 per game but didn't see any real increase in FTA's for those players.

[SonicMage]

Quote: Originally Posted by SteboSSK

Have you noticed any real increase in FTA for players like Harden or Cousins with your foul tendency discovery? I once applied an increase to foul tendency so I could get fouls for teams to 20-21 per game but didn't see any real increase in FTA's for those players.

I've been tracking Harden in this regard. He increased slightly but still not to the levels of his real-life self. There's more work to be done though, like fixing points in the paint which I think will go a long way. Even with my shot tendencies, there are too many shot attempts from close and mid range and not enough from under the basket (in sim, not in gameplay). I'll be doing more adjustments to the shot tendencies soon-ish which will hopefully help with this free throw problem as well.

The couple guys that'll be very difficult to fix for free throw attempts are Howard and Deandre. Sim doesn't really account for those Hack-A-Howard FTA's.

[SonicMage]

Quote: Originally Posted by SonicMage

P.S. I'm also working to have 2016-17 ratings done, and hope to do weekly updates based on all stats from games played up to that point. Unfortunately, one of the sites I heavily rely on to get data is missing some important info for this season, so I've contacted them; hopefully it'll be resolved soon.

In regards to this, apparently basketball-reference.com's support request email bounces back. Hopefully they figure out the problem soon and get us some updated stats!

[Ryan Bruhh]

Can you please just post all your formulas for ratings or explain them in one place? I really want to make a legends roster but don't know how to make or where to find a good formula.

[janmagn]

Quote: Originally Posted by Ryan Bruhh

Can you please just post all your formulas for ratings or explain them in one place? I really want to make a legends roster but don't know how to make or where to find a good formula.

Why use the formulas when you have the ratings?

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[SonicMage]

Hey all, just got back from a little mini-vacation, and basketball-reference has finally posted their game-to-game stats. Which means I now have some ratings for players for the 2016-17 season! These are based on stats from games up through November 3rd, and thanks to extended summaries, it uses last season's stats to fill in the blanks wherever applicable. Pretty cool to see how well players are performing based on games from just a couple days ago.

You'll notice quite a few N/A's so far, and there's a couple reasons for that: 1) Rookies. They haven't played enough minutes or taken enough shots in the NBA yet. As more games are played, their numbers will start to fill in. 2) Durability ratings. Players haven't played enough games yet this season. What my system does is look for a minimum of 100 games played, between this season and last season. So therefore on this update you will see a few Durability ratings for players from last season's Warriors and Cavs teams because they played over 100 games.

My plan is to be able to do an update every week for 2016-17 players based on the latest stats. This will all depend on how frequently the stats websites I use update their data.