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Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

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Old 09-14-2019, 12:30 AM   #1
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Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

So here are my sliders. If you want a very detailed explanation of the challenges, weaknesses, strengths, and logic behind them see page two.

They can be found on PS4 under the ID Comdukakis999 and name Com P/R sliders. Note there is in no L in my online ID like my OS screenname.

I shall also post the numbers for those who wish to type them in or have XBOX.

Salary Expectations:

Min Rating: 60
Max Rating: 60
Salary Curve: 25
Player Potential: 25
Player Durability: 40
Player Minutes: 50
Player Fame: 0
Player Non-Financial Ambitions: 60

I also set contract negotiation difficulty at 50 and CPU Re-signing Aggressiveness at 75

Progression:

Player Progression rate 45
Player Regression rate 60

Attribute Progression: The first number will be for Growth phase, the 2nd for Peak, the 3rd for decline

Driving Layup 75, -5, -25
Post Fade 75, 15, -25
Post Hook 75, 15, -25
Post Moves 75, 15, -25
Draw foul 75, 0, -20
Close shot 30, 15, -12
Mid-Range shot 75, 15, -20
Three point shot 75, 15, -20
Free throw 38, 15, -2
Ball Handle 75, 0, -15
Pass IQ 75, 22, 5
Pass Accuracy 75, 22, 0
Offensive Rebound 75, 0, -20
Defensive Rebound 75, 0, -20
Interior Defense 75, 15, -15
Perimeter Defense 75, 0, -25
Lateral Quickness 12, -5, -38
Pass Perception 75, 15, 5
Block 75, 0, -25
Steal 75, 0, 25
Defensive Consistency 75, 15, 0
Help Defense IQ 75, 15, 5
Standing Dunk 50, 0, -20
Driving Dunk 50, 0, -30
Speed 12, -5, -30
Speed with Ball 38, 0, -30
Acceleration 12, -5, -30
Vertical 12, -5, -30
Strength 75, 15, 0
Stamina 75, 0, -25
Hustle 15, 0, -30
Shot IQ 75, 15, 5
Offensive Consistency 75, 15, -10
Pass Vision 75, 22, 0
Pick and Roll Defense IQ 75, 15, 5
Hands 75, 0, -20
Shot Contest 75, 0, -25
Reaction Time 75, 0, -35


Edited 9/20/19 10:48 PM EST




I'm trying to work out a set for the most realistic sliders for myleague simulation for progression/regression and contracts. I did this some last year and had some success in creating some sliders that worked for me.

One of the challenges in doing contract sliders is the G-league glitch which is apparently back, although maybe less pronounced this year.

So I simmed one season with defaults to get a baseline for where we are at. Aside from the G-league glitch, progression/regression was not half bad. The elite players in their 30s didn't regress much and probably should (for example LeBron had an all 1st team season and didn't regress at all). Otherwise though almost all regression was in players age 30 and up. I liked that it hit some "speed" type players harder at younger ages too. Guys who rely on getting in the lane saw physical attributes such as acceleration go down significantly at age 30 and older.

The progression was across the board. Not ideal, but not a game breaker. In reality some guys never really get better after year 2 or 3. But on default almost anyone under age 29 is moving up 1-2 OVR. Top young players jump more although I think Zion moved up the most of any non-G League glitch player at 5 (Two g league glitch guys moved up more, one 7 and one 9, with most going up 4 to 5).

I'm going to try to find some slider sets that reduce progression for everyone while maintaining growth for high potential players. Also looking to cap growth in non basketball IQ categories for those who hit 24/25ish. It's rare a player gets faster or jumps higher once they have been the league 3 or 4 years. Athleticism should already peak in year 1-3.

Trades continue to be an issue and I don't know that it can be solved. Like years past the AI doesn't offer deals like the real NBA. No one is trying to ditch big contracts, trade expiring deals, horde draft picks, etc. Almost all CPU trades offered are player for player, often at the same position. For example one trade was Garrett Temple for Seth Curry. That simply isn't a common NBA trade these days. At the same time the trades offered to my team (I controlled the Pistons just for fun) were pretty lopsided. The CPU was treating me like an older brother treats his younger brother in a baseball card trade.

So the goal of trade sliders is to somehow get teams to try to rebuild by ditching contracts and getting picks back.

As far as contract sliders, I can't say it was horrific. I've certainly seen far worse. The biggest problems was overpaying for guys that would sign for much less, and I think as a result leaving some talent in the FA pool. For example:

HernanGomez 2/11.32m
JaVale McGee 2/10.71m
Whiteside 1/10.93m
Noel 1/7.39m
Okafor 1/8.26m
Dwight Howard 1/15.29m (!!!!)
MKG 2/16.67m
Mudiay 1/8.94m
JaMychal Green 3/32.3m


This left some quality players in the FA Pool such as:

Tristan Thompson
Myers Leonard
Austin Rivers
Kris Dunn
Kent Bazemore
Isiah Thomas (coming off a 16 ppg season)
Pat Connaughton
Maurice Harkless
Noel Vonleh
Alec Burks
Andre Iguodala
Iman Shumpert
Rajan Rondo (coming off another 8 assist plus year and leading the Lakers to the finals)

Other notable contracts to give a baseline for default settings
Marvin Williams 1/1.67m (oh how the overpaid have fallen)
Aaron Baynes 2/4.51m
Jeff Teague 1/3.42m (turned down a 1/8m offer from Detroit before the actual signing period)
Jae Crowder 2/18.13m
Rodney Hood 2/17.62m
Serge Ibaka 3/47.47m
Fred Van Vleet 3/43.97m
Marc Gasol 2/36.97m
Marcus Morris 3/31.28m
Kelly Olynyk 3.41.57m
Demarcus Cousins 3/79.39m (coming off a 20/10 season)
Joe Harris 3/33.14m
Derrick Favors 3/50.08m
Sabonis 3/73.72m
Montrez Harrell 4/96.12m
Anthony Davis 5/180.11 (resign with Lakers)
DeMarcus DeRozan 5/193.69 (resign with spurs)
Brandon Ingram 4/121.28m (resign with Pelicans)
Pascaal Siakam 5/155.29 (resign with Raptors)
Buddy Hield 4/112.72m (resign with Kings)
Jaylen Brown 3/86.76m
Andre Drummond 5/169.88m (resign with Pistons after an attempt at AD)
Gallinari 4/78.48m


So the goal of contract sliders will be to reduce length of contract for the mid range guys. No need to be tossing two year deals at JaVale McGee, Jae Crowder, MKG, or 3 year deals at JaMychael Green.

I think the guys who got paid at the top were pretty accurate. Maybe an eyebrow raised at Harrell, but we see teams throw big money at some strange names each year (Pistons are still paying Josh Smith)

I will continue to sim seasons and tweak the sliders to see if I can get better results.

If anyone else is working on something similar, let me know and maybe we can split up the work or at least have more data to narrow down the best slider sets

Last edited by Comduklakis; 09-20-2019 at 11:49 PM.
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Old 09-14-2019, 06:43 AM   #2
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

Looking forward to trying these sliders


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Old 09-16-2019, 10:38 AM   #3
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

I had a fiddle too and really messed things up, looking forward to seeing what you can make happen!

Funny you mentioned the trade offer thing, I was being offered some terrible trades, teams like Phoenix offering me Saric for Aaron Gordon

How do the discount sliders work?
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Old 09-16-2019, 11:57 PM   #4
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

Still fiddling with sliders. Making some progress. I've managed to reduce the number of vets in free agency somewhat. Still some work to do but as I noted in the original post, I think part of that issue is teams overpaying on other talent, leaving not enough money to sign some vets. They also are asking for a bit too much money.

Moving sliders around doesn't seem to effect who signs an extension (consistently only Lowry, Clarkson and Reggie Jackson) and who turns down player/team options. Can't seem to get Sexton and Porter Jr. to get their options picked up for some reason, which is of course highly unrealistic, then they turn around and sign for far more on a different team. Other than those two the player/team options are fairly logical. I'd argue Drummond and DeRozan might take their player options but since the AI always pays them out with big 5 year deals I guess it makes sense. Not sure they get that much IRL (although Pistons owner Tom Gores loves Drummond).

Not a lot of movement at the the top level either. Drummond has moved on a couple times. AD always resigns with the Lakers, DeRozan with the spurs, and young players like Hield and Siakam sign extensions.

So the biggest names moving around are guys like Portis, Joe Harris, Galinari, Millsap, Van Vleet, and Marc Gasol. Then again it's not a banner FA crop. If Drummond, AD, Lowry, and DeRozan all resign, there is a STEEP drop after that.

The other issue I ran into is the teams seem to like to give bigs too much money. Even with fame way down, Dwight Howard continues to get monster contracts. Other somewhat obsolete bigs who struggle in the PnR D are still also getting overpaid. Not sure that this issue is solvable as the game seems to overvalue the attributes of bigs.

As far as progression/regression it still isn't too terrible. My goal is to eliminate any drops in IQ categories as a player ages. Players don't get dumber. I want the regression to be in athletic categories, shooting, etc. I have the progression close to where I want it. Players over 24 aren't seeing any increase in their physical categories (except strength which can grow and often does as a player ages), are seeing growth in skills and in IQ categories. So my two biggest concerns in progression/regression is eliminating IQ drops for older players while still having them regress and to see a bigger gain for high potential players while not dragging everyone else along with larger progressions.

I will say that sim stats obviously effect contracts and progression/regression. What I've discovered consistently is that upper echelon players are shooting FAR too high of a percentage, particularly from three. I think most of the uptick is from a higher 3%. Volume 3 shooters like Lillard and Harden are shooting a 100 percentage points higher, simmed season after simmed season than they do in real life. And I think the issue isn't ratings but badges. The reason I say that is the average NBA player isn't shooting much higher, nor are the bigs. Those are almost all in line with their historical norms in their career. What is causing the large increase in shooting percentages is stars shooting ridiculously high, which of course is adding more points per game so league wide scoring is too high.

Sadly I think the only answer is downloading a quality draft class (or making your own) that tears apart the badge system and relies more on ratings. I think this would help in reducing star player shooting. Just reducing the effectiveness sliders will result in star players shooting lower but also rank and file now shooting far too low. So I really do think this is roster related and can't be fixed with sliders effectively. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news if you care about accurate sim stats.

So please be patient, could be a couple more weeks of simming to get to where I'm comfortable with contracts and progression/regression. At that point I will take a stab at trades, but I'm not optimistic in the slightest and just suggest everyone force their own trades in their franchise.

Hopefully by the time opening day rolls around I'll have a good slider set, a quality roster to download (although I doubt CelticsLg will be that quick, but he's does good work on the ps4) and the option bug in Franchise will be fixed because it's a mode killer.

Last edited by Comduklakis; 09-17-2019 at 12:09 AM.
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Old 09-17-2019, 03:57 PM   #5
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

Good work so far. I remember last year there were always some problem contracts in free agency no matter what you did. Last year it was guys like Dwight, Melo, and Paul Millsap that caused most of the problems. If you adjusted things too far one way it could potentially mess up something else so you just had to go with the lesser of the two evils.

Outside of Dwight and probably Green, I don't think that most of those are too bad... Plus, most of them are for just one year so you can kind of look at them like those those Laker contracts where they overpaying guys for taking short deals so they can conserve their cap for the next offseason... either that or one-year "prove it to me type" of deals. I don't really mind the two year deals because some vets do sign two year deals and their salaries aren't bad.

I'm interested to see your further testing but I think this is a decent starting point.
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Old 09-18-2019, 06:29 PM   #6
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

Quote:
Originally Posted by Comduklakis
Still fiddling with sliders. Making some progress. I've managed to reduce the number of vets in free agency somewhat. Still some work to do but as I noted in the original post, I think part of that issue is teams overpaying on other talent, leaving not enough money to sign some vets. They also are asking for a bit too much money.

Moving sliders around doesn't seem to effect who signs an extension (consistently only Lowry, Clarkson and Reggie Jackson) and who turns down player/team options. Can't seem to get Sexton and Porter Jr. to get their options picked up for some reason, which is of course highly unrealistic, then they turn around and sign for far more on a different team. Other than those two the player/team options are fairly logical. I'd argue Drummond and DeRozan might take their player options but since the AI always pays them out with big 5 year deals I guess it makes sense. Not sure they get that much IRL (although Pistons owner Tom Gores loves Drummond).

Not a lot of movement at the the top level either. Drummond has moved on a couple times. AD always resigns with the Lakers, DeRozan with the spurs, and young players like Hield and Siakam sign extensions.

So the biggest names moving around are guys like Portis, Joe Harris, Galinari, Millsap, Van Vleet, and Marc Gasol. Then again it's not a banner FA crop. If Drummond, AD, Lowry, and DeRozan all resign, there is a STEEP drop after that.

The other issue I ran into is the teams seem to like to give bigs too much money. Even with fame way down, Dwight Howard continues to get monster contracts. Other somewhat obsolete bigs who struggle in the PnR D are still also getting overpaid. Not sure that this issue is solvable as the game seems to overvalue the attributes of bigs.

As far as progression/regression it still isn't too terrible. My goal is to eliminate any drops in IQ categories as a player ages. Players don't get dumber. I want the regression to be in athletic categories, shooting, etc. I have the progression close to where I want it. Players over 24 aren't seeing any increase in their physical categories (except strength which can grow and often does as a player ages), are seeing growth in skills and in IQ categories. So my two biggest concerns in progression/regression is eliminating IQ drops for older players while still having them regress and to see a bigger gain for high potential players while not dragging everyone else along with larger progressions.

I will say that sim stats obviously effect contracts and progression/regression. What I've discovered consistently is that upper echelon players are shooting FAR too high of a percentage, particularly from three. I think most of the uptick is from a higher 3%. Volume 3 shooters like Lillard and Harden are shooting a 100 percentage points higher, simmed season after simmed season than they do in real life. And I think the issue isn't ratings but badges. The reason I say that is the average NBA player isn't shooting much higher, nor are the bigs. Those are almost all in line with their historical norms in their career. What is causing the large increase in shooting percentages is stars shooting ridiculously high, which of course is adding more points per game so league wide scoring is too high.

Sadly I think the only answer is downloading a quality draft class (or making your own) that tears apart the badge system and relies more on ratings. I think this would help in reducing star player shooting. Just reducing the effectiveness sliders will result in star players shooting lower but also rank and file now shooting far too low. So I really do think this is roster related and can't be fixed with sliders effectively. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news if you care about accurate sim stats.

So please be patient, could be a couple more weeks of simming to get to where I'm comfortable with contracts and progression/regression. At that point I will take a stab at trades, but I'm not optimistic in the slightest and just suggest everyone force their own trades in their franchise.

Hopefully by the time opening day rolls around I'll have a good slider set, a quality roster to download (although I doubt CelticsLg will be that quick, but he's does good work on the ps4) and the option bug in Franchise will be fixed because it's a mode killer.
Take all the time you need man, you're doing a great job!

In my roster I lowered Dwight financial security from 75-100 to 0 or 25 (same thing for Tyson Chandler, DMC and other good players that signed for vet minimum) and he will sign more decent deals, not the contracts that we may want but at least is not a 3-years $60 million dollar.
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Old 09-19-2019, 04:28 PM   #7
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

If I start a MyLeague and change the contract and/or progression sliders during it, will that affect progression and contract demands during the offseason or would I have to adjust the sliders prior to beginning the save?
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Old 09-20-2019, 05:50 PM   #8
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Re: Regression/Progression and Contract sliders

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mackrel829
If I start a MyLeague and change the contract and/or progression sliders during it, will that affect progression and contract demands during the offseason or would I have to adjust the sliders prior to beginning the save?
When you change the contract sliders, it will effect things from that day forward. You may actually see contract extensions change as teams offer more money and players become more inclined to sign or vice versa.

As for progression/regression, I also assume that changing the settings will make sure that those settings create the progression/regression for the offseason, but I don't promise. I doubt that anything is "under the hood" for progression/regression during the season, but I can't say I'm 100% sure. Just mostly sure.

Progression/regression seems to be based on performance, sliders, injuries, and ratings. I don't know if the new sliders would wash away prior performance or injuries that are factored in, but I would assume so. My assumption would be that progression/regression is simply figured at that time in the off-season based on the sliders that are active at that time and then factor all the in season stuff based on those current sliders.
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