Although no where near as huge as 40 points in seven minutes, I had the Pistons score 45 points in the 4th quarter to beat me just recently. I lead the ENTIRE game, I was up by 20 going into half time, the 45 they scored in the 4th was more than they had in the first half combined.
A few nights later I dismantled the Heat. The difference, I believe is not only keeping up with your P.O.E's and making defensive adjustments (the PF shouldn't always guard the PF, etc.) but also, playing a slower paced game.
I rarely, if ever jump out on the break in this game, unless it's a 100% guarantee that my player will receive the pass and finish at the rim. On a missed shot from the CPU, I always hold onto the ball, wait and bring it up court with one of my guards. And I ALWAYS run a play, regardless if the play breaks down or not, it keeps your CPU teammates moving, and not just standing in the corners and on the blocks. Doing this, I've had a lot more success since that Pistons game. I'm not saying the fast break, or getting out in transition doesn't work at all, it just doesn't work for me, so I just don't do it unless I get into the passing lane/steal the ball.
I think a lot of players are aware it's the 4th quarter, and they know the CPU is going to make a run, so they get thrown off of the game that they've been playing for the first 3 quarters. When you start trying to go shot for shot with the CPU in this game, you're finished. The frustration will lead to you running down the court and chucking up 3's with Thaddeus Young, knowing damn well dude can't shoot the trey. The "momentum" factor in this game is HUGE, probably to a fault, once somebody like LeBron James or Stephen Curry get hot, it's nearly impossible to stop. Drawing fouls, playing a slow, deliberate offense, getting (and knocking down) good looks, and of course calling time outs all help slow that down, I can attest to that. Sometimes you're going to have to let the stars "get theirs" and shut down the rest of the team. Learning how to play good on-ball defense in this game is an absolute must.
These are some of the things that have helped me when playing against the CPU in 2K.