Young players and player progression

[darkknightrises]

Quote: Originally Posted by Pandetta

This is where we just have to agree to disagree. Historical PER trends back up a much earlier career prime. Either way, as I said i was primarily concerned about steep decline, rather than early decline - which you also mention. I'm not interested in 33 year olds that were superstars, suddenly in the 60s. Of course they shouldn't be 95 either.

There are so many players that have been just has good at 27-28 compared to 30-31. Kobe, James, Duncan, drik, nash, Malone, Jordan ect. I don't know where you got that got get worse at 28-29. But its not just that guys decline at a young age its that to many guys decline over all young or older. You see teams that have like 9 guys on there roster decline in 1 season. Also I have seen sever guys go down even at like 24-25 years of age. While yeah I don't want a guy that is 33 and say a 90 to still be a 90 or 89 by the time they are 37 but with the way things are right now you see just about ever player that is only 30-32 droping at least 2 points and a lot of them 6 points.


With the way it is right now you are going to see guys that are a 90 at age 30 go down to like an 80-77 by age 32 or maybe even worse. There should be more of a verity in players. Example would be Iverson went form being close to his prim to shell of his self in like 1 year where a guy like Kobe and Duncan didnt. Some players should have a slow decline and others should just drop off quik. They also lose points in things they shouldn't really lose points in like IQ. I had a sim where Kobe's IQ went down 1 and you see players jump shooting go down. Guys shouldn't get worse at shooting if any thing guys shooting should go up and things like speed and jumping should go down instead. That is why guys like kobe, Jordan, Malon, ect where able to play at all star levels has they got older has there athecisim went down they found ways to score in different ways and jump shooting was a big reason for it. look at Kobe even though he is way less athlectic then he used to be his jump shoot is way better then it was when he was say 21,22. Black griffen even though he is young and still in his prim his jump shooting has started to get better. So the first thing players should start to go down in is speed, jumping dunking not things like shooting and IQ.

[annan]

You're basing your argument on HOF players, they aren't the norm. I would have no problem if guys regress earlier than 28-32, many players do. I would want it to be flexible though not something where someone automatically goes down once they hit a certain age. It should be based on a number of factors (age, potential, usage, system, injuries, etc)

I agree that IQ shouldn't decline though. I've never heard of a basketball player becoming less aware, their bodies just don't hold up.

Don't have the game though so I can't comment on what is going on.

[darkknightrises]

Quote: Originally Posted by annan

You're basing your argument on HOF players, they aren't the norm. I would have no problem if guys regress earlier than 28-32, many players do. I would want it to be flexible though not something where someone automatically goes down once they hit a certain age. It should be based on a number of factors (age, potential, usage, system, injuries, etc) I agree that IQ shouldn't decline though. I've never heard of a basketball player becoming less aware, their bodies just don't hold up. Don't have the game though so I can't comment on what is going on.

Its not just HOF players though. Even look at a guy like kyle lowry he is getting better and he is 28. Injures have a lot to do with how good players are and how long they can stay good and most players if they decline before 30 it is because of injures. Most guys that stay healthy do not drop off before 30 and even if they do normal it is a very small drop off. With the way it is right now guys at 30 are dropping off like they are 30 year old RB in the NFL or something. In the NFL a RB being 30 is like a NBA player being 35-37 with the way they drop off.


Now if some guys where droping off at 28 and other guys 30 and other guys 32 ect that wouldn't be to much of a problem but when ever guy that is 30 is droping off and when a lot of guys that are 27 even guys that are 25 are getting worse that is messed up and you are having guys drop off like I said before even after having a good or great season.

[briggm]

Quote: Originally Posted by annan

You're basing your argument on HOF players, they aren't the norm. I would have no problem if guys regress earlier than 28-32, many players do. I would want it to be flexible though not something where someone automatically goes down once they hit a certain age. It should be based on a number of factors (age, potential, usage, system, injuries, etc) I agree that IQ shouldn't decline though. I've never heard of a basketball player becoming less aware, their bodies just don't hold up. Don't have the game though so I can't comment on what is going on.

Unfortunately it's not a case of this guy getting better and that guy getting worse; it's simply a broken system they've tried to implement that needs fixing. Somebody said in another thread that they ran a sim and by the year 2021 there were only 2 players over the age of 32 signed to rosters(!)

Has anybody tested whether potential affects player decline? Would, say, Andrew Bogut with a potential of 99 decline slower than what he does with his current potential rating?

[darkknightrises]

Quote: Originally Posted by briggm

Unfortunately it's not a case of this guy getting better and that guy getting worse; it's simply a broken system they've tried to implement that needs fixing. Somebody said in another thread that they ran a sim and by the year 2021 there were only 2 players over the age of 32 signed to rosters(!) Has anybody tested whether potential affects player decline? Would, say, Andrew Bogut with a potential of 99 decline slower than what he does with his current potential rating?

Yeah like I said I did a sim and only 3 guys above 29 did not get worse in the whole league now that is messed up. The thing is to that a guy can have a good year and then they still go down. I don't know about the potential thing but so many guys go down there has got to be more then just like 3 guys with an 80 or higher potential right?

[mullhouse]

Do draft class quality and player progression rate help this problem?

[pacers101]

Quote: Originally Posted by Pandetta

This is where we just have to agree to disagree. Historical PER trends back up a much earlier career prime. Either way, as I said i was primarily concerned about steep decline, rather than early decline - which you also mention. I'm not interested in 33 year olds that were superstars, suddenly in the 60s. Of course they shouldn't be 95 either.

I agree with you that the peak ages probably aren't a million miles off. But it is the severity of the decline which is the concern. From around age 28, most players start dropping at around 4 OVR points per season, with quite severe drops across the board.


You end up with a situation where there are actually very few players aged over 31/32 in the league (only the guys who were superstars in their mid 20s). The overall quality of the league reduces significantly, which affects the balance of contracts and managing the cap. And you would be crazy to give a guy over 28 years old more than a 1 year contract, because you can nearly guarantee that he will be demanding significantly less next season when he has declined further.


I haven't messed around with the sliders to see whether the declines can be slowed a little. But its definitely something that 2k ought to look at sorting, because it is definitely not right.

[Aestiux]

It has to be patched. It has totally ruined the whole MyLeague experience.