First, let me say: We seem to be on the same page in our thinking (including Monroe being underrated).
Cauley-Stein is supposed to be the most NBA-ready big in this year's draft so I see him going sooner than later. With that being said: GM's are enamored with potential more than not so I see the Towns/Okafor picks more likely than Cauley-Stein.
New York seems intent on win-now mode so if they keep their pick I see them possibly avoiding whichever guard they are left and taking Cauley-Stein then doing some horse-trading.
One of the sleepers I see is Frank Kaminsky. He has the developed skills to spread the floor and he has heart. There is also the fact that the NBA is a copy-cat league and with the success of the SA system this year he can fit in a lot of programs and line-ups personality-wise.
I think the big steal for the Lakers will be the 27th pick. They can target a "Kobe-clone" here and develop him within the next couple of years. A lot of potential guards in this range of the dradt are available this year.