Shot Success Rate

[ksuttonjr76]

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We need more videos like this that REALLY dives into the numbers of a "successful" shot. While watching this video, all I kept thinking was "72.5% success rate on ONE badge with a 75 3PT rating NO excellent release".

[ksuttonjr76]

Re: Shot Success Rate

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And this video basically says that you have 100% probability of hitting your shots with a 86+ 3PT rating on certain bases....keep in mind that no badges have been applied to increase the probability of the shot going in.

[2kVetRespect]

Re: Shot Success Rate

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6GELE4wtmjs" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>

And this video basically says that you have 100% probability of hitting your shots with a 86+ 3PT rating on certain bases....keep in mind that no badges have been applied to increase the probability of the shot going in.

Very misleading. You have to have perfect timing and be open.

Most people either shoot contested shots or have poor timing.

This thread should be closed. Very pointless and misleading

[ksuttonjr76]

Re: Shot Success Rate

Very misleading. You have to have perfect timing and be open.

Most people either shoot contested shots or have poor timing.

This thread should be closed. Very pointless and misleading

Do the math, and it's not misleading.

On just two criterias alone (open and perfect), you can hit 100% on certain bases. In my mind, why IS it 100%, and why should it be possible? The fact that this is even a possibility is a crime against basketball. Then comes the next question...how much of a penalty are you getting when you don't get a perfect release? A typical 2K player (presumably) will get slightly late/early releases if they don't hit the green window. For sake of argument, let's just say late/early release gives you a 72% probability of hitting your shot before badges. To me....that's STILL too freaking high.

I posted in another thread where boost percentages were given for various badges. The original Corner Specialist gave you 5% boost under certain conditions. The original Dimer gave you boosts of 10% on 2PTs and 4% on 3PTs. The original Spot-Up Shooter (now Catch and Shoot) decreased the early/late release by 30%. With the above 72%, you'll maintain 80% probability of hitting a shot before any other badges are activated. I couldn't find the percentage boosts for PnR Mastero and Pick and Pop/Fade. I'm running the numbers in my head, and most combinations of badges and situations will maintain shooting probabilities easily above 80% unless the defense is able to get a smothered/heavily contest The high probability of success is consistent with the high shooting percentages of people who abuse the the pick and roll game or who are badged up.

To me and I might be rambling since I'm calculating numbers on the fly, but it's no wonder why people complain so much about the 3PT shooting. Bigs are shooting pure ratings while feeling the affects of most contests and being forced into "poor shot animations", since they're only getting a boost on a handful of badges. Sharps, Stretch Bigs, and 3PT abusers are not feeling the same effect, because the defense is NOT having a strong enough impact to force those players into "poor shot animations".

That has to change.

EDIT: CLEARLY layups are not getting 100 probability of shot success, since there are more than enough videos out there showing people getting excellent releases, but the player still misses what should be the easiest shot in the game. Second, what badge do post players possess that works the SAME as the Deadeye badge?

[OrlandoTill]

Re: Shot Success Rate

I actually believe in a 100% green window at least in the non-NBA modes (where we are not completely simulating real life) as I think you should be rewarded for the skill of shot timing.

So not PlayNow or MyLeague/MLO and maybe not Pro-Am.

The problem is that if you have such a mechanic you NEED to make getting open a very hard and strategic(but rewarding) skill.

Wraps being in the game(contact animations where off-ball players truncate their entire momentum chasing an off-ball target by bumping into an on-ball character), the current speed of sharps(either unchanged or barely changed from 2K18 where the mechanic did not exist) and speedboosting(having only certain dribble animations in the entire game give you the fastest forward momentum)make having that mechanic unforgiveable and unfair to defenders.

Also the off-ball cut options from past 2Ks aren't in the game which make the whole thing of getting open too simple and unrewarding for the defense and offense.