This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

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  • DigiMich
    Rookie
    • Nov 2012
    • 50

    #1

    This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

    So from what I understand......hot zones do one of two things. Either they slightly boosting the percentage of shots that go in overall...or they slightly diminishes the affects of mistimed jumpshots. Meaning its easier to make a poor shot with good defense if you are inside a hot zone.

    Sounds good right? Until you realize that many of the top players in the league have virtually no hot zones what so ever. Making it slightly harder to make open shots with them compared to lesser players who have more hot zones.

    For example...everyones favorite player Steve Novak has more hot zones than Kevin Durant. Why? We know he is a lock down shooter but does he deserve a artificial boost for him that is more than someone like Melo? KD? Lebron? Nick Young? I would trust Melo to hit a mid range jumpshot on a more consistent basis than Novak.

    The only thing I can think of here is if they thought giving melo more hotzones would make him completely unstoppable (although he is now anyway) because hotzone plus stats would mean 99% success but I would say I would rather have Melos shots be more successful with lesser user input than a role players because what is the use of having a star if I can be just as effective with a role player?

    I think this is what attributes to many of the head scratching moments of how a lesser player can hit in more situations than a star player. (Or so it seems many times) Depending on how strong the hot zones work you could in theory build a team around hot zones and be more offensively productive than if you built a team around stats because you would have the game slightly boosting/forgiving all of your shots leading to more of them going in. Especially since online is on All-Star settings.

    Example, it would be easier to be more offensively productive on the user if they had Korver and Novak on the floor instead of someone like Durant and Melo. Since the former would have 99% of the court covered in hotzones and the latter would only have 20%

    For a video example of what I mean take a look here. Thoughts? And remember the question isnt whether or not the person is a lock down shooter or not. I am asking does a role player deserve to have an easier time hitting shots than a superstar. Melo makes everything he puts up already...but so does Korver.....one of them is unlike the other.





    <iframe src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/B8yG3FkFsv8?feature=player_detailpage" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" width="640"></iframe>
    Last edited by DigiMich; 01-17-2013, 12:08 PM.
  • Optik
    MVP
    • Aug 2012
    • 1025

    #2
    Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

    Yeah but neither Korver nor Novak can make heavily contested fadeaway 3s consistently like Durant can, can they?

    EDIT: I guess this is the reason there is a trend online of people to just run to the elbow 3 point line, regardless of whether they are being defended or not, and just fire away.

    EDIT 2: Nice vid.
    Last edited by Optik; 01-17-2013, 12:50 PM.
    Originally posted by Dogslax41
    Most people that are asking for a simulation game don’t really want a simulation game because its too hard.

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    • Vni
      Hall Of Fame
      • Sep 2011
      • 14833

      #3
      Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

      It's wrong.

      It's not overpowered like you make it sound. It just increases the chances a shot has to go in depending on ratings and defense. It's not like you make it sound as if a bad mid range shooter becomes a beast all of a sudden just because he's in a hot zone. No, he just gets a little boost.

      zones make sense because they represent real life player's confort zones.

      Besides wide open shot missed happen every games from every players, you shoudn't be surprised.

      Comment

      • StraightBaylien
        MVP
        • Jan 2012
        • 2120

        #4
        Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

        Maurice Sprites is my favorite player.

        Comment

        • DigiMich
          Rookie
          • Nov 2012
          • 50

          #5
          Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

          Originally posted by Vni
          It's wrong.

          It's not overpowered like you make it sound. It just increases the chances a shot has to go in depending on ratings and defense. It's not like you make it sound as if a bad mid range shooter becomes a beast all of a sudden just because he's in a hot zone. No, he just gets a little boost.

          zones make sense because they represent real life player's confort zones.

          Besides wide open shot missed happen every games from every players, you shoudn't be surprised.

          But this is what I am saying. Certain players have many more chances to increases the rate in which jumpshots go in correct? Those chances translate to more jumpshots being made on a more consistent level than others.


          Plus a bad mid range shooter wouldnt have a mid range hotzone would they? I dont know what you are getting at there. I am assuming both players have good stats with the only difference being the hot zone.

          I never said that you could take the worst player and put them in a hot zone and make 100 jumpshots.

          Comment

          • Rockie_Fresh88
            Lockdown Defender
            • Oct 2011
            • 9621

            #6
            Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

            He actually has a point. I sold Durant because of all the missed open shots. Guess that's why Steph Curry doesn't miss lol. Red all over.

            Meanwhile Korver doesn't miss open. It's a thought provoking thread I gotta say.
            #1 Laker fan
            First Team Defense !!!

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            • Vni
              Hall Of Fame
              • Sep 2011
              • 14833

              #7
              Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

              Wait... I doubt Durant has blue zone all over the place so if you miss open shots with Durant that's because of something else.

              Gray zone are neutral so only the ratings play and Durant's are very high.

              Comment

              • Rockie_Fresh88
                Lockdown Defender
                • Oct 2011
                • 9621

                #8
                Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                Originally posted by Vni
                Wait... I doubt Durant has blue zone all over the place so if you miss open shots with Durant that's because of something else.

                Gray zone are neutral so only the ratings play and Durant's are very high.
                Yeah I've missed crazy good looks all A+ releases to the point I sold him. I know players miss in real life but I couldn't take it. Sold him got OJ Mayo he doesn't miss open shots often. Maybe it's the momentum thing.

                Edit: don't get me wrong I still was beast with him. He doesn't miss contested shots too often tho. Those open are just head scratchers . Especially when the guy is playing zone and doubling everybody.
                Last edited by Rockie_Fresh88; 01-17-2013, 12:52 PM.
                #1 Laker fan
                First Team Defense !!!

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                • DigiMich
                  Rookie
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 50

                  #9
                  Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                  Originally posted by Vni
                  Wait... I doubt Durant has blue zone all over the place so if you miss open shots with Durant that's because of something else.

                  Gray zone are neutral so only the ratings play and Durant's are very high.

                  Again....thats what I am saying. Durant as I show in the video has gray all over the place...making him technically a worse shooter than Korver because he is not being boosted by hot zones.

                  That is the point I am trying to make.

                  Superstars seem to make less jumpshots because they have no hot zones compared to random mcrandom guy and his 10 hotzones.

                  What I am finding is that its far better to have hotzones than stats.


                  I am going to make up some percentages here just to clarify my point. I would rather have Korver and his 10 hot zones who would make 90% of every open shot than to have KD with his 1 hot zone and make 80% of every shot. You get me?

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                  • Vni
                    Hall Of Fame
                    • Sep 2011
                    • 14833

                    #10
                    Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                    Yeah but if you're missing with Durant that's not because of his zones. I'am gona check but I really doubt he has a lot of blue zones.

                    Would be interesting to know how much zones affect the chance of making a shot though.

                    Comment

                    • Rockie_Fresh88
                      Lockdown Defender
                      • Oct 2011
                      • 9621

                      #11
                      Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                      Originally posted by Vni
                      Yeah but if you're missing with Durant that's not because of his zones. I'am gona check but I really doubt he has a lot of blue zones.

                      Would be interesting to know how much zones affect the chance of making a shot though.
                      I'm not saying missing to the point he's a scrub lol. I was beast with him lol. But I think I hit more contested shots than clear open shots with Durant. On the flip side Oj Mayo is a beast of a open shooter for me.
                      #1 Laker fan
                      First Team Defense !!!

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                      • Vni
                        Hall Of Fame
                        • Sep 2011
                        • 14833

                        #12
                        Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                        But yeah, if you take two players with the same shooting ratings and one has hot zones and the other one doesn't, the second one is gona shoot better.

                        Korver is probably a better shooter than Durant though... has to be really close.

                        Durant though can make shot in traffic and off the dribble.

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                        • Rockie_Fresh88
                          Lockdown Defender
                          • Oct 2011
                          • 9621

                          #13
                          Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                          Originally posted by Vni
                          But yeah, if you take two players with the same shooting ratings and one has hot zones and the other one doesn't, the second one is gona shoot better.

                          Korver is probably a better shooter than Durant though... has to be really close.

                          Durant though can make shot in traffic and off the dribble.
                          Maybe Durant shoots better in traffic/contested/ off dribble than open set shots? Idk let me check out Mayos hot zones
                          #1 Laker fan
                          First Team Defense !!!

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                          • DigiMich
                            Rookie
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 50

                            #14
                            Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                            Originally posted by Vni
                            Yeah but if you're missing with Durant that's not because of his zones. I'am gona check but I really doubt he has a lot of blue zones.

                            Would be interesting to know how much zones affect the chance of making a shot though.
                            EDIT: Whoops you got it after I posted it.


                            I think you are getting caught on the wrong thing. Its not really about missing shots with Durant its about making more similar shots with non superstar players.

                            A boost is a boost is a boost. I would rather have a boost than not have one correct? So if KD has a 90 midrnage shot and Korver has a 84 midrange shot with a hotzone....I find that Korver is a better option because of the hotzone.

                            Thats what I am saying. I also would like to know what the hotzones actually do...and why Korver/Novak have FAR more than someone like Durant.....all Durant does is hit jumpshots how could he not have any hotzones?

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                            • Vni
                              Hall Of Fame
                              • Sep 2011
                              • 14833

                              #15
                              Re: This is why you are missing open jumpshots.

                              I think zones are fair. They probably picked a %age for every players like say, if a player has a zone where he shots more than 54% it will be a hot zone and will get a boost in the game if he shots from there.

                              That's just fair if it's the same %age for every players and not based on the player's average %age of field goal. Does that male sense?

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