OVR Player Progression Study for NCAA 14

[Warren Piecee]

I realize that OVR player progression studies have been done before but I have not seen one done for some time, I do not recall any being completed for NCAA 14 and the search feature on this board makes any that have been completed not at all easy to locate. I therefore decided to do one of my own.



I played/simulated four seasons with Virginia Tech. The average in-season OVR increase was .3 of an OVR point per player per season. The average off-season training OVR increase was 4.7 OVR points per player per off-season. The combined in-season and off-season total of 5 OVR points per player per year matches the figure that others have posted on this board over the last five years or so.



I had thought that all players on all teams progressed at the same average rates because I have never read anything to make me think differently. However, I discovered just recently that available on XBox Live is an NCAA 14 game add-on that allows all players to progress as they do on those teams with a high. level of football prestige. Three questions spring to mind: Do players on teams with a lower level of football prestige progress less early in their college careers and progress more later in their football careers but still progress the same combined total OVR points as do players on teams with high football prestige for their entire college football career? Is the combined total college career OVR point progression of players on teams with high football prestige higher than players on teams with lower football prestige for their entire college football career? Is it possible that it is only the off-season training progression that is different for teams with higher and lower levels of football prestige?



I should note that I am not certain what the game considers a high level of football prestige and what it considers a low level of football prestige. Virginia Tech is given by the game a fairly high but not the highest level of football prestige. I assume the combined in-season and off-season total of 5 OVR points per player per year has to be the highest level the game allows.



I would appreciate a post from anyone who can help shed more light on this subject. Perhaps someone familiar with how progression works with the colleges with less football prestige can explain it to us.

[PocketScout]

In season progression is different for CPU and Human controlled teams. Human players will progress more as they will have a much greater increase in AWR over the course of a season. CPU Post Season and Hum Post Season progression is all done on bell curves.

The game uses an empirical rule bell curve to determine how much each team should progress in the off season. The mean of the curve is adjusted by the prestige of the team. So the mean of the curve would be higher for high prestige team and lower for a lower prestige team, but a lower prestige team (say 3*) could fall 2 standard deviations to the top end of the curve one year while a 5* team could fall close to 2 standard deviations to the bottom of their curve and the 3* team might progress a little better than the 5* for that year. Most of the time though (68%) the teams will fall with in one standard deviation of the mean.


This is just an image with 3 bell curves on it. The numbers are not important to the concept of how the game progression works. Think of the mean of the first curve as being for a 3* team, the second curve being 4* and the last being 5*. You will see an over lap area when the highest of a previous curve might be higher than the low side of next curve. In the game the means of the curves are more spaced with a little less overlap of each bell curve than what is shown in this graphic.





Also you might want to check out my thread on NCAA 2013 on how player ratings effect the overall of a player. Here. Based on where each team falls on the curve the players ( based on what his position is) will get boosts to certain skills that will raise his overall. How much of a boost to each still is based on where the team falls on the curve and which curve they are on.

I hope this has been clear enough to help give you a better understanding of how the progression works.

[Warren Piecee]

Quote: Originally Posted by PocketScout

In season progression is different for CPU and Human controlled teams. Human players will progress more as they will have a much greater increase in AWR over the course of a season. CPU Post Season and Hum Post Season progression is all done on bell curves. The game uses an empirical rule bell curve to determine how much each team should progress in the off season. The mean of the curve is adjusted by the prestige of the team. So the mean of the curve would be higher for high prestige team and lower for a lower prestige team, but a lower prestige team (say 3*) could fall 2 standard deviations to the top end of the curve one year while a 5* team could fall close to 2 standard deviations to the bottom of their curve and the 3* team might progress a little better than the 5* for that year. Most of the time though (68%) the teams will fall with in one standard deviation of the mean. This is just an image with 3 bell curves on it. The numbers are not important to the concept of how the game progression works. Think of the mean of the first curve as being for a 3* team, the second curve being 4* and the last being 5*. You will see an over lap area when the highest of a previous curve might be higher than the low side of next curve. In the game the means of the curves are more spaced with a little less overlap of each bell curve than what is shown in this graphic. Also you might want to check out my thread on NCAA 2013 on how player ratings effect the overall of a player. Here. Based on where each team falls on the curve the players ( based on what his position is) will get boosts to certain skills that will raise his overall. How much of a boost to each still is based on where the team falls on the curve and which curve they are on. I hope this has been clear enough to help give you a better understanding of how the progression works.

Thanks. This was both very interesting and very helpful. Do you have any data on average yearly progression?

[PocketScout]

I did one back for NCAA 2012 but have not for 14. You can do one really easy if you want. Here is a dataset of mine that has 19 seasons. It is a pretty big chore but the data is there for you to figure out everything would would like to know about the game. Also if you are looking to get an easy csv of the team roster for that season you can find them under teamrosterXX.csv This one was for Florida State (team id 28).

[Warren Piecee]

Thanks. I appreciate it.