Interesting findings in simulated offenses

[vgunn]

Well in the ongoing attempt to create accurate statistics when games are quickly simulated I have discovered the following:

Taking a look over a number of seasons at select programs.

The percentage of Pass vs. Run will vary even if the slider numbers remain the same. Example: USC had more passing attempts using the West Coast offense than the Spread or Balanced. The same was found for South Carolina.

The completion percentage was nearly the same for all teams, despite the type of offense with a slight edge going from Balanced to West Coast to Spread.

INT numbers were highest on Spread, lowest on Balance.

Passing TD's were highest on Balanced, followed by Spread and then West Coast.

I believe the Spread offense is more risk/reward and should be used by only true 4 and 5 wide offenses such as Texas Tech and New Mexico State.

In the Spread offense the ball was thrown the most to WR's. The highest distribution to the HB was with the West Coast, with Balanced and Spread about even.

Distribution to the TE was highest on West Coast, then Balanced and lowest on Spread. However FB distribution was highest on Balanced, with West Coast and Spread nearly the same.

As for running Balanced will give the ball more to the #1 HB. The West Coast offense give the most carries to the FB followed by Balanced. Interestingly the Spread offense will give more carries to the #2 HB than either Balanced or West Coast.

Conclusions -- I believe more teams should be moved to West Coast from Balanced or Spread. These should be teams which pass catching TE's (such as Miami). Teams with pass catching FB's should actually use Balanced. Teams running the Spread should be very limited, only those with real wide open attacks with QB's that DO NOT run. Teams running the Shotgun Spread Option type offenses (Urban Meyer) should be set to Option Run. Teams with scrambling QB's such as Texas and Texas A&M such be changed to Run Option as well.

I will compare the Spread vs. Option Run numbers in my next post for teams like Florida, Utah, and Bowling Green.

[vgunn]

By the numbers:

Bowling Green Spread vs. Bowling Green Option Run

SPR QB -- 259-373-3440-31-4-69%
OPT QB -- 243-335-3117-35-5-72%

Spread Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 183
QB #1 -- 54 (-10 yards)
HB #2 -- 18
HB #3 -- 14
FB #1 -- 6

Option Run Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 126
QB #1 -- 125 (222 yards)
HB #2 -- 34
HB #3 -- 17
FB #1 -- 8

Spread Receptions:
WR #1 -- 78
WR #2 -- 51
WR #3 -- 48
HB #1 -- 29
WR #4 -- 19

Option Run Receptions:
WR #1 -- 78
WR #2 -- 51
WR #3 -- 48
TE #1 -- 25
WR #4 -- 21

[vgunn]

By the numbers:

Texas Balanced vs. Texas Option Run

BAL QB -- 166-252-2355-18-5-65%
OPT QB -- 187-264-2674-25-5-70%

Balanced Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 186
QB #1 -- 64 (36 yards)
HB #2 -- 50
HB #3 -- 43
FB #1 -- 10

Option Run Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 148
QB #1 -- 139 (459 yards)
HB #2 -- 40
HB #3 -- 14
FB #1 -- 8

Balanced Receptions:
WR #1 -- 64
WR #2 -- 57
WR #3 -- 24
WR #4 -- 21
HB #1 -- 20

Option Run Receptions:
WR #1 -- 63
WR #2 -- 55
TE #1 -- 35
WR #3 -- 31
HB #1 -- 28

BTW -- V. Young won the Heisman w/ Option Run

[vgunn]

By the numbers:

Florida Spread vs. Florida Option Run

SPR QB -- 200-300-2547-22-6-66%
OPT QB -- 219-320-3088-31-2-68%

Spread Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 223
HB #2 -- 41
QB #1 -- 37 (-25 yards)
FB #1 -- 15
HB #3 -- 13

Option Run Rushing Attempts:
HB #1 -- 181
QB #1 -- 93 (17 yards)
HB #2 -- 17
HB #3 -- 16
FB #1 -- 11

Spread Receptions:
WR #1 -- 68
WR #2 -- 41
WR #3 -- 39
TE #1 -- 29
HB #1 -- 28

Option Run Receptions:
WR #1 -- 67
WR #2 -- 57
TE #1 -- 34
WR #3 -- 31
HB #1 -- 25

[vgunn]

Conclusions:

The passing numbers are actually improved when switching to Option Run from Spread or Balanced (only BG was slightly lower in numbers). TD to INT ratio is improved and completion percentage is higher.

Rushing attempts are increased for the QB as well as a dramatic jump in rushing yards. HB rushes drop with the increase in QB carries. The FB numbers are similar.

Receiving numbers add an increase to TE receptions and a minimal drop in HB receptions.

So I believe ALL teams using a Shotgun Spread offense with a scrambling QB should switch to the Option Run setting. Teams with a scrambling QB should also switch to the Option Run as well. This will lead to much more accurate statistics.

Again this is done in the coach settings. The pass/run sliders are not a factor (use default or adjusted). Under offense type there is Spread; West Coast; Balanced; Option Run and Flexbone.

Remember when a game is quick simmed the offense will default to one of the following listed above. It will not used a team specific playbook. A team specific playbook is only used when the game is actually played out human v. human / human v. CPU / CPU v. CPU.

Hope this helps!

[spacez53]

Quote: Originally Posted by vgunn

Remember when a game is quick simmed the offense will default to one of the following listed above. It will not used a team specific playbook. A team specific playbook is only used when the game is actually played out human v. human / human v. CPU / CPU v. CPU.

REALLY?? I didn't think this was the case.

Great work BTW. I will have to think about this.

[vgunn]

Quote: Originally Posted by spacez53

REALLY?? I didn't think this was the case.

As I mentioned this is only when games are quick simmed. For instance, if you get the chance switch every team to Flexbone and take a look at the numbers at the end of the season.

[spacez53]

Is there a difference between simming and quick simming? Like if I play my game and sim all the other games of the week is that simming or quick simming?