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TheGamingChef · 12-05-2006, 06:17 PM

The BCS sucks.

We all know it's true. We'll never have a true national champion until we let the best teams fight it out in a playoff. So I decided to take my playoff system, plug it into NCAA 07, and simulate through the playoffs to see who NCAA 07 would crown the National Championship Playoff Series #1 team.

How's the playoff work?

Well, first I had to decide how many teams to include in the playoff. After analyzing other major sports with playoffs, I decided four teams most certainly would not cut it. Too many title winners from, say, the NFL - Pittsburg, New England, etc. - were wild-cards for me to justify leaving the #5-#8 best teams out of the playoff. So eight teams would be the way to go, right?

Well, in a word... no. How could you tell a 2 loss SEC team (Auburn) that they're out when a 2 loss Pac 10 team is in (USC) and a 2 loss independent (ND)? Who's to decide that Auburn is less deserving than that same Notre Dame team? It should be settled on the field. Which is why I chose to go with the largest practical field for the playoffs, a set up including 16 teams.

It works like this: A system quite similar to our current BCS ranking system is created. Following the last games of the season, the top 12 teams from the BCS rankings are in, automatically, seeded 1-12. Then, to determine the #13-16 teams, we take a wide sampling of human polls (in this case, I used AP, USA Today, and Harris, but ideally I'd use more) and select the four overall highest-ranked teams that are not already in the playoffs. Those four teams are in the playoffs as well. Finally, to determine their seeding, we go back to those BCS rankings and place them in order of how they are ranked in the computer rankings.

For example, this season the four best teams according to the human polls that aren't in the BCS top 12 are West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Rutgers. But, when we plug them back into the BCS, Wake Forest would jump ahead of Virginia Tech in seeding.

I think this is the best way to ensure that humans remain firmly in charge of the teams in the playoffs, & that a computer-overlooked team would qualify for the playoffs but a team overranked by humans would be lower seeded.

Where would they play?

We'll work backwards. In the title game, semifinal games, and one of the quarterfinal matchups, the "Big Four" bowls would choose their matchups just like they do now, on a rotating basis: Title game, quarterfinal game of your choosing, "leftover" semifinal game, and your choice of semifinal. For the other three quarterfinals, other major bowls (Capital One, Cotton, Gator, etc.) would have the ability to bid on the bowl slot each season. The highest paying bowl would get to choose its matchup first, 2nd highest second, and etc. In the first round of the playoffs, the game is played at the home stadium of the higher seed.

Allright... who we got?

Using my system, here's our 2007 National Championship Playoff Series top sixteen:

16. Rutgers @
1. Ohio State

9. Auburn @
8. Boise State
---
13. West Virginia @
4. LSU

12. Arkansas @
5. USC
---
11. Notre Dame @
6. Louisville

14. Wake Forest @
3. Michigan
---
10. Oklahoma @
7. Wisconsin

15. Virginia Tech @
2. Florida

I will be using an edited version of the rosters (to boost Ray Rice's numbers, among others.) Post interest/predictions here! And get ready to crown a 2007 NCPS title winner!

TheGamingChef · 12-06-2006, 04:53 PM

The first round of the 2007 NCPS is completed!

Out of the eight games, three of them were won by the lower seed. (See why a 16 team playoff is a good idea?) Without any further ado, let's get straight to the results.

#1 Ohio State 51
#16 Rutgers 14

We all knew this one wasn't going to be close. The Scarlet Knights actually were shut out in the second half in this one. Teel was 7-16 with 2 INTs, and Ray Rice was a non-factor, as he ran for just 76 yards. Ohio State, on the other hand, had three rushers over 80 yards, including Pittman with 166 yards on 23 carries. OSU advances on to face...

#9 Auburn 34
#8 Boise State 3

Another blowout. However, at the end of the first quarter, Boise State was ahead 3-0. They must've been satisfied at that point, because Zabranksy ended up throwing 3 INTs, Johnson was held to only 21 - yes, 21 yards rushing, and Auburn's Irons whittled off a whopping 191 yards on the ground.

#13 West Virginia 24
#4 LSU 21

The final score of this close battle was also the halftime score, as somehow, someway, West Virginia's defense was able to stop somebody for two quarters straight. The stats for this game were nearly identical - both starting QBs threw two picks.

#5 USC 31
#12 Arkansas 7

This one looks like a blowout, but at the half, it was only 14-7. Booty had an average game, and Dick was injured early on. The freshman Mustain stepped in and went 14-31 with 2 INTs. Arkansas could not capitalize on McFadden's 196 yards rushing.

#11 Notre Dame 24
#6 Louisville 17

Typical ND. Just when we count them out for good, Charlie Weis brings 'em right back. Notre Dame was ahead 17-0 at halftime (Looks like good old Notre Ame finally got their D back) until Brady Quinn was injured early in the 3rd quarter. The length of his injury time is 10 weeks, meaning he will be unable to play the remainder of the NCPS. Louisville's comeback was stopped short, however.

#3 Michigan 42
#14 Wake Forest 7

Geez, another blowout. (Must be this Momentum thing.) Michigan dominated WF in every way, as Skinner was held to 10 of 26 with no TDs, while Henne went 23-35, 5 TDs, and no INTs. His favorite target was Arrington, who had 10 catches for 121 yards and 2 TDs. However, WF's defense keyed on Hart - he was held to only 76 yards all game. (He was probably out of the game pretty early, though.)

#7 Wisconsin 21
#10 Oklahoma 14

This was an exceptionally tight game. Tied 7-7 at halftime, locked in a defensive battle, the two teams traded TDs bang-bang at the end of the 3rd quarter and headed into the fourth all knotted up. The game saw no further scores until Wisconsin caught a 23 yard TD pass with 2 minutes remaining, and they were able to hold off OU. Peterson, in his return from injury, was held to only 56 yards rushing.

#2 Florida 24
#15 Virginia Tech 20

Florida received a mighty scare in this matchup. Down 20-14 to begin the 4th quarter, UF managed to score a TD on a 61 yard pass to Baker early in the quarter to take a 21-20 lead. A short FG by Hetland with 4 minutes left stretched the lead to beyond a field goal, and VT was unable to get back on the board. Florida survives!

So, following the first round of games, here are our Quarterfinal matchups, and the bowl sites that will host the games:

#1 Ohio State vs. #9 Auburn - Cotton Bowl

#13 West Virginia vs. #5 USC - Rose Bowl

Winners of above two games will meet in the Orange Bowl for the Semifinal Round.

----

#11 Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Gator Bowl

#7 Wisconsin vs. #2 Florida - Capital One Bowl

Winners of above two games will meet in the Sugar Bowl for the Semifinal Round.

TheGamingChef · 12-07-2006, 02:42 PM

Doesn't look like anyone is reading this... but I'm going to continue anyways. Please post here if you actually are reading this. I'm lonely!

Two quarterfinal matchups of the 2007 NCPS are completed. The results may surprise you, let's see...

#1 Ohio State 38
#9 Auburn 31

Auburn put up one of the most valiant efforts I've seen a long time. Down 24-7 at halftime, Auburn rattled off 24 unanswered 3rd quarter points to pull ahead 31-24 at the start of the 4th. Ohio State scored a TD with 10 minutes remaining in the game to tie it up, and the gamewinner with 1:45 remaining. An Irons fumble at the OSU 30 with 50 seconds remaining sealed the deal for the Buckeyes. Projected Heisman winner Smith had a subpar game, going 8-22 with zero TDs. Pittman had a huge game however - 142 yards and 3 TDs. Irons, ironically, was Auburn's lifeblood, running for 98 yards and scoring 2 TDs himself. Ohio State will advance on to face...

#13 West Virginia 39
#5 USC 29

West Virginia?!? In most playoff systems, they wouldn't even be here, and now they're in the semifinals? Believe it or not, this is the way it happened over in the Rose Bowl. In fact, the Mointaineers were ahead 39-15 at the start of the 4th. USC punched in a quick TD, forced a stop, got another TD with 4 minutes remaining, and recovered an onside kick. Booty, however, threw an interception around midfield with 3 minutes remaining on a pass to the end zone, and WVU was able to run out the clock with Slaton. Speaking of Slaton, he was on fire in this one, running for a grand total of 162 yards and 3 TDs.

So now we have your Orange Bowl semifinal matchup: Who will advance on to the Fiesta Bowl? The #1 favorite Ohio State, or the #13 underdog West Virginia? We'll just have to wait and see.

Results from the remaining two quarterfinal games will either be posted later today or tomorrow.

saxyel28 · 12-07-2006, 07:14 PM

Very entertaining thread... I've done these types of simulations in the past. Can be very fun.. Question for you..

What system are you simming on and what are your settings??

TheGamingChef · 12-07-2006, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saxyel28


	Very entertaining thread... I've done these types of simulations in the past. Can be very fun.. Question for you.. What system are you simming on and what are your settings??

I'm using current-gen Xbox, using a slightly modified version of FistofRage's Heisman sliders (FistofRage's PS2 Heisman Sliders) with 6 min. quarters. I'm setting the games up in Play Now, and just watching the teams battle it out. Except for the blowout games - on those I just left and came back later usually.

Expect the other quarterfinal results sometime tomorrow.

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12-05-2006, 06:17 PM	#1
TheGamingChef MVP OVR: 18 Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In between Big 10 and Big XII country	The 2007 National Championship.... Playoff Series?!? The BCS sucks. We all know it's true. We'll never have a true national champion until we let the best teams fight it out in a playoff. So I decided to take my playoff system, plug it into NCAA 07, and simulate through the playoffs to see who NCAA 07 would crown the National Championship Playoff Series #1 team. How's the playoff work? Well, first I had to decide how many teams to include in the playoff. After analyzing other major sports with playoffs, I decided four teams most certainly would not cut it. Too many title winners from, say, the NFL - Pittsburg, New England, etc. - were wild-cards for me to justify leaving the #5-#8 best teams out of the playoff. So eight teams would be the way to go, right? Well, in a word... no. How could you tell a 2 loss SEC team (Auburn) that they're out when a 2 loss Pac 10 team is in (USC) and a 2 loss independent (ND)? Who's to decide that Auburn is less deserving than that same Notre Dame team? It should be settled on the field. Which is why I chose to go with the largest practical field for the playoffs, a set up including 16 teams. It works like this: A system quite similar to our current BCS ranking system is created. Following the last games of the season, the top 12 teams from the BCS rankings are in, automatically, seeded 1-12. Then, to determine the #13-16 teams, we take a wide sampling of human polls (in this case, I used AP, USA Today, and Harris, but ideally I'd use more) and select the four overall highest-ranked teams that are not already in the playoffs. Those four teams are in the playoffs as well. Finally, to determine their seeding, we go back to those BCS rankings and place them in order of how they are ranked in the computer rankings. For example, this season the four best teams according to the human polls that aren't in the BCS top 12 are West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Rutgers. But, when we plug them back into the BCS, Wake Forest would jump ahead of Virginia Tech in seeding. I think this is the best way to ensure that humans remain firmly in charge of the teams in the playoffs, & that a computer-overlooked team would qualify for the playoffs but a team overranked by humans would be lower seeded. Where would they play? We'll work backwards. In the title game, semifinal games, and one of the quarterfinal matchups, the "Big Four" bowls would choose their matchups just like they do now, on a rotating basis: Title game, quarterfinal game of your choosing, "leftover" semifinal game, and your choice of semifinal. For the other three quarterfinals, other major bowls (Capital One, Cotton, Gator, etc.) would have the ability to bid on the bowl slot each season. The highest paying bowl would get to choose its matchup first, 2nd highest second, and etc. In the first round of the playoffs, the game is played at the home stadium of the higher seed. Allright... who we got? Using my system, here's our 2007 National Championship Playoff Series top sixteen: 16. Rutgers @ 1. Ohio State 9. Auburn @ 8. Boise State --- 13. West Virginia @ 4. LSU 12. Arkansas @ 5. USC --- 11. Notre Dame @ 6. Louisville 14. Wake Forest @ 3. Michigan --- 10. Oklahoma @ 7. Wisconsin 15. Virginia Tech @ 2. Florida I will be using an edited version of the rosters (to boost Ray Rice's numbers, among others.) Post interest/predictions here! And get ready to crown a 2007 NCPS title winner!

12-06-2006, 04:53 PM	#2
TheGamingChef MVP OVR: 18 Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In between Big 10 and Big XII country	Re: The 2007 National Championship.... Playoff Series?!? The first round of the 2007 NCPS is completed! Out of the eight games, three of them were won by the lower seed. (See why a 16 team playoff is a good idea?) Without any further ado, let's get straight to the results. #1 Ohio State 51 #16 Rutgers 14 We all knew this one wasn't going to be close. The Scarlet Knights actually were shut out in the second half in this one. Teel was 7-16 with 2 INTs, and Ray Rice was a non-factor, as he ran for just 76 yards. Ohio State, on the other hand, had three rushers over 80 yards, including Pittman with 166 yards on 23 carries. OSU advances on to face... #9 Auburn 34 #8 Boise State 3 Another blowout. However, at the end of the first quarter, Boise State was ahead 3-0. They must've been satisfied at that point, because Zabranksy ended up throwing 3 INTs, Johnson was held to only 21 - yes, 21 yards rushing, and Auburn's Irons whittled off a whopping 191 yards on the ground. #13 West Virginia 24 #4 LSU 21 The final score of this close battle was also the halftime score, as somehow, someway, West Virginia's defense was able to stop somebody for two quarters straight. The stats for this game were nearly identical - both starting QBs threw two picks. #5 USC 31 #12 Arkansas 7 This one looks like a blowout, but at the half, it was only 14-7. Booty had an average game, and Dick was injured early on. The freshman Mustain stepped in and went 14-31 with 2 INTs. Arkansas could not capitalize on McFadden's 196 yards rushing. #11 Notre Dame 24 #6 Louisville 17 Typical ND. Just when we count them out for good, Charlie Weis brings 'em right back. Notre Dame was ahead 17-0 at halftime (Looks like good old Notre Ame finally got their D back) until Brady Quinn was injured early in the 3rd quarter. The length of his injury time is 10 weeks, meaning he will be unable to play the remainder of the NCPS. Louisville's comeback was stopped short, however. #3 Michigan 42 #14 Wake Forest 7 Geez, another blowout. (Must be this Momentum thing.) Michigan dominated WF in every way, as Skinner was held to 10 of 26 with no TDs, while Henne went 23-35, 5 TDs, and no INTs. His favorite target was Arrington, who had 10 catches for 121 yards and 2 TDs. However, WF's defense keyed on Hart - he was held to only 76 yards all game. (He was probably out of the game pretty early, though.) #7 Wisconsin 21 #10 Oklahoma 14 This was an exceptionally tight game. Tied 7-7 at halftime, locked in a defensive battle, the two teams traded TDs bang-bang at the end of the 3rd quarter and headed into the fourth all knotted up. The game saw no further scores until Wisconsin caught a 23 yard TD pass with 2 minutes remaining, and they were able to hold off OU. Peterson, in his return from injury, was held to only 56 yards rushing. #2 Florida 24 #15 Virginia Tech 20 Florida received a mighty scare in this matchup. Down 20-14 to begin the 4th quarter, UF managed to score a TD on a 61 yard pass to Baker early in the quarter to take a 21-20 lead. A short FG by Hetland with 4 minutes left stretched the lead to beyond a field goal, and VT was unable to get back on the board. Florida survives! So, following the first round of games, here are our Quarterfinal matchups, and the bowl sites that will host the games: #1 Ohio State vs. #9 Auburn - Cotton Bowl #13 West Virginia vs. #5 USC - Rose Bowl Winners of above two games will meet in the Orange Bowl for the Semifinal Round. ---- #11 Notre Dame vs. #3 Michigan - Gator Bowl #7 Wisconsin vs. #2 Florida - Capital One Bowl Winners of above two games will meet in the Sugar Bowl for the Semifinal Round.

12-07-2006, 02:42 PM	#3
TheGamingChef MVP OVR: 18 Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In between Big 10 and Big XII country	Re: The 2007 National Championship.... Playoff Series?!? Doesn't look like anyone is reading this... but I'm going to continue anyways. Please post here if you actually are reading this. I'm lonely! Two quarterfinal matchups of the 2007 NCPS are completed. The results may surprise you, let's see... #1 Ohio State 38 #9 Auburn 31 Auburn put up one of the most valiant efforts I've seen a long time. Down 24-7 at halftime, Auburn rattled off 24 unanswered 3rd quarter points to pull ahead 31-24 at the start of the 4th. Ohio State scored a TD with 10 minutes remaining in the game to tie it up, and the gamewinner with 1:45 remaining. An Irons fumble at the OSU 30 with 50 seconds remaining sealed the deal for the Buckeyes. Projected Heisman winner Smith had a subpar game, going 8-22 with zero TDs. Pittman had a huge game however - 142 yards and 3 TDs. Irons, ironically, was Auburn's lifeblood, running for 98 yards and scoring 2 TDs himself. Ohio State will advance on to face... #13 West Virginia 39 #5 USC 29 West Virginia?!? In most playoff systems, they wouldn't even be here, and now they're in the semifinals? Believe it or not, this is the way it happened over in the Rose Bowl. In fact, the Mointaineers were ahead 39-15 at the start of the 4th. USC punched in a quick TD, forced a stop, got another TD with 4 minutes remaining, and recovered an onside kick. Booty, however, threw an interception around midfield with 3 minutes remaining on a pass to the end zone, and WVU was able to run out the clock with Slaton. Speaking of Slaton, he was on fire in this one, running for a grand total of 162 yards and 3 TDs. So now we have your Orange Bowl semifinal matchup: Who will advance on to the Fiesta Bowl? The #1 favorite Ohio State, or the #13 underdog West Virginia? We'll just have to wait and see. Results from the remaining two quarterfinal games will either be posted later today or tomorrow.

12-07-2006, 07:14 PM	#4
saxyel28 Rookie OVR: 3 Join Date: Jul 2002	Re: The 2007 National Championship.... Playoff Series?!? Very entertaining thread... I've done these types of simulations in the past. Can be very fun.. Question for you.. What system are you simming on and what are your settings??

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The 2007 National Championship.... Playoff Series?!?