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Originally Posted by Pogo27 |
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Something still isn't quite right.
Look at GJ Kinne. He has just 67 awareness, and while he hasn't had the best completion percentage or stats, he's an outlier. You can look at the top end all you want, but I don't think it's a complete hard and fast rule, unless you feel like simming 100+ first season to show that these two GJ Kinne results are flukes.
I don't know how many of these you've done, and while the conclusion you've drawn can be generally applied, I think saying "ONLY" awareness matters is certainly incorrect.
I mean, if you're REALLY interested in exploring this, I'm down for helping you look at the data, but I'm not really interested in sitting around simming. And if you really want to try drawing conclusions, at the minimum, I think you need at least 100 seasons simmed (first season, every time, so that we're using identical rosters every time).
It would also be nice if these could be sorted with descending THP, THA, AWR, and Completion percentage.
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My premise isn't that there is a linear progression for success based on AWR. I'm saying that 81 AWR is the line right now. Anyone at 81+ will have success, and anyone below that, it will basically be a crapshoot.
Last year in the NCAA there were 43 QBs at 60% or better. Out of the top 100 QBs in Yards/Game, not one of them was below 50%.
Now, as for how much data we have so far. I've simmed 2010 twice and 2011 once. In those 3 years, there have been 53 total players who have had an AWR at 81+. There were 19 players for both 2010s and 15 players for 2011. During every sim, the ONLY players who have had a comp% over 60% are these 53 players. Every other player with an AWR under 81 also had a comp% under 60%.
So, just using the starters, there are 120 starting QBs per season, so over 3 seasons, that's 360 guys. This may not be pure science, but this is enough data for me. There has not been one QB in 3 years of simming to fail at this rule. 81 AWR is the number.
QBs Tested | AWR 81+ | AWR <81 | Comp% >60% | Comp%<60% |
320 | 53 | 267 | 53 | 267 |
These numbers do not include Martez Wilson who was >60% twice. It also doesn't include backup QBs who also have fallen into the same pattern.
In EVERY season I've simmed where Texas Tech's Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield both play, Potts is >60% and Sheffield is <60%.
My premise is that 81 AWR is the minimum threshold.