Where did you get those numbers? According to VGChartz, College Hoops 2k8 moved 462,604 copies in its first 20 weeks alone. Also, at the time of release 2k8 wasn't really considered "special" by most review outlets. Actually, Madden 08 for 360/PS3 had a higher Metacritic score. Kind of similar to NFL 2k5, people seemed to appreciate it a lot more once it was "gone".
Just FYI, Tiger Woods 11 sold a little over half-a-million sold across all platforms so far and numbers are dropping FAST. Seems unlikely to reach a million.
Maybe in
your opinion. I think if 2k used their resources wisely, assigned a good team (NFL2k5/APF2k8?) to it, made a quality product, and marketed as well as they did for NBA 2k, they could definitely compete with EA's NCAA Football offering.
Regardless, if EA doesn't renew the exclusive license, I doubt 2k would put any serious effort into developing it until they purchase a license. Assuming this is the case, they'd only have 6 months until the normal NCAA football game release "window" so I doubt we'd see their game until 2012 (so NCAA College Football 2k13).