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Originally Posted by thekodinator |
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I'm in year 8 of my Ty Detmer coaching dynasty (all at BYU). I joined the Big 12 back in year 2, but this past season (2020) I came up with a new conference alignment and method for selecting teams for the 4-team playoff. To this point, I was just using the top 4 teams according to the BCS rankings.
Here's my conference alignment:
As for selection criteria for the 4-team CFP, I wanted to make it rules-based and add extra importance to conference championships.
Using the final BCS rankings, qualification into the 4-team CFP goes as follows, filling as many teams as qualify in each step until 4 are selected:
CFP Qualification
step 1- Any undefeated teams ranked in the top 4 of the BCS standings automatically qualify, regardless of conference. (This is the only way for a G3 team to qualify for the CFP)
step 2- P5 conference champions or Notre Dame ranked in the top 6 of the BCS rankings. Must have 2 or fewer losses. Higher-ranked teams qualify first.
step 3- MM conference champions ranked in the top 6 of the BCS rankings. Must have 2 or fewer losses. Higher-ranked teams qualify first.
step 4- P5 conference champions or Notre Dame ranked between 7-10 of the BCS rankings. Must have 2 or fewer losses. Higher-ranked teams qualify first.
step 5- MM conference champions ranked between 7-10 of the BCS rankings. Must have 2 or fewer losses. Higher-ranked teams qualify first.
step 6- Highest ranked P5 or MM teams in the BCS top 12 with 2 or fewer losses (conference title not required).
Running this in 2020 for the first time, it all came out very clean.
Final BCS Rankings:
1-Ohio State (11-2) *Big Ten Champs
2-Texas (12-1) *Big 12 Champs
3-Tennessee (11-2) *SEC Champs
4-Miami (11-2) *ACC Champs
5-Michigan State (10-2)
6-Notre Dame (11-1)
So in this scenario, 1-4 all made it to the CFP. If at least two teams above Notre Dame hadn't won their conference, then the Irish would've gotten in instead.
Major Bowls & Semi-Finals
The last thing that I've done is changed around the major bowl structure for the semi-finals. The major bowls are the Rose (B1G & Pac12 champs), Cotton (Big 12 champs), Fiesta (Notre Dame or non-P5 team), Sugar (SEC champ), and Orange (ACC champ).
The semi-finals are played at the corresponding bowl tie-in associated with the #1 and #2 ranked teams. So in the example above, #1 Ohio State would play #4 Miami in the Rose Bowl, and #2 Texas plays #3 Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl. This means that there is no official bowl rotation for the semi-finals every year.
Really happy with this set-up, and excited to see how it goes for a few years.
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I just got through my 2nd season with this set up, and the results were much more controversial than season 1, so I thought I'd share.
Keeping in mind that I'm running a 4-team playoff with CFP Qualification criteria in the quoted post above, year 1 was very straight forward. The top 4 ranked teams were all P5 conference winners with 2 or fewer losses, so they all made it into the CFP.
In year 2, it got a little more interesting. Here are the final BCS rankings (top 10):
Final BCS Rankings:
1-BYU (13-0) *Big 12 Champs
2-Auburn (12-1) *SEC Champs
3-Florida State (11-2) *ACC Champs
4-LSU (10-2)
5-Ohio State (10-3) *Big Ten Champs
6-Tennessee (11-2)
7-Notre Dame (9-3)
8-Penn State (9-3)
9-Miami (10-3)
10-Pitt (11-2) *AAC Champs
Based on my CFP Qualification criteria, the #1 BYU qualified via 'Step 1', and Auburn and Florida State qualified via 'Step 2'. After that, the only other P5 conference champ was #5 Ohio State. But with 3 losses, they didn't satisfy 'Step 2'. So it came down to #10 Pitt being a Mid-Major conf champ making it into the CFP via 'Step 5'! Had they not climbed a couple spots in the rankings the previous week to get into the top 10, LSU would've made it via 'Step 6'.
I don't know if it's a perfect system or not, but I really like the added emphasis on conference champs. The '2 or fewer loss' rule is kind of arbitrary, but I don't like the idea of a 3-loss team making it into the CFP, and it keeps it a little more realistic in that way as the rankings can get janky. (I've seen a 4-loss team ranked 3rd before. wild).
Sorry for the long post but this is a new system for me and I'm having a BLAST finding out how it works in practice.