Running game is BUSTED!

[swaldo]

I watched both of the complete Head Coach game movies that were posted by EA and tracked the rushing stats. It appears NFL Head Coach has a problem that has plagued many, many football games in the past – TOO MANY NEGATIVE YARDAGE RUSHES!

The NFL average negative yard rushes (not counting kneel downs) is 9% of total rushes. In the two full games EA posted there was a whopping 29% negative yard rushes. This dropped the average yards per rush from an NFL average of 4.06 to 2.78 in Head Coach.

Here are the five main problems in regards to the rushing engine, the last two being a bit subjective and predictive on my part.

1. Average yards per rush – LOW
2. Negative yard rushes – HIGH
3. Rushes of 20+ yards – LOW
4. Poor teams can’t run AT ALL
5. Good running teams will only have average numbers.

Obviously not having a running game is frustrating and effects everything you do. As a matter of fact, 39 plays or 53.4% of rushes gained negative to plus 2 yards. There is not much of a reward in choosing a run play so it appears everyone will have to set up an “Air Coryell” style offense. To me, this is a game breaker and I think after the game is released there is going to be some real flaming over this issue - just try playing the Chargers vs Patriots.

Here are the numbers from the games. Please note if the QB got tackled trying to hand off the ball I counted that as negative rushing yards rather than a sack (it happened once if I remember correctly.)


NEW ENGLAND:
20/83 Carries/yards
4.15 Average yards per rush
3 negative rushes = 15% of total rushes
9 rushes of 4+ yards = 45%
2 Rushes of 10+ yards = 20%
1 Rushes of 20+ yards = 5%

MIAMI:
16/17 Carries/yards
1.06 Average yards per rush
8 negative rushes = 50% of total rushes
6 rushes of 4+ yards = 37.5%
0 Rushes of 10+ yards = 0%
0 Rushes of 20+ yards = 0%

TOTAL NE/MIA:
36/100 Carries/yards
2.77 Average yards per rush
11 negative rushes = 30.5% of total rushes
15 rushes of 4+ yards = 41.7%
2 Rushes of 10+ yards = 5.5%
1 Rushes of 20+ yards = 2.8%

NY GIANTS:
21/47 Carries/yards
2.23 Average yards per rush
7 negative yardage rushes = 33.3% of total rushes
7 rushes of 4+ yards = 33.3%
3 Rushes of 10+ yards = 14%
0 Rushes of 20+ yards = 0%

DALLAS:
16/56 Carries/yards
3.5 Average yards per rush
3 negative yardage rushes = 19% of total rushes
7 rushes of 4+ yards = 43.7%
2 Rushes of 10+ yards = 12.5%
0 Rushes of 20+ yards = 0%

TOTAL NYG/DAL:
37/103 Carries/yards
2.78 Average yards per rush
10 negative yardage rushes = 27% of total rushes
14 rushes of 4+ yards = 37.8%
5 Rushes of 10+ yards = 13.5%
0 Rushes of 20+ yards = 0%

TOTAL – ALL 4 TEAMS COMBINED:
73/203 Carries/yards (Team average = 18/51)
2.78 Average yards per rush
21 negative yardage rushes = 29% of total rushes
29 rushes of 4+ yards = 39.7%
7 Rushes of 10+ yards = 9.5%
1 Rushes of 20+ yards = 1.3%

NFL AVERAGE:
27/111 Carries/yards
4.06 Average yards per rush
Negative yardage rushes = 9.3% of total rushes (non kneel downs)
Rushes of 4+ yards = 41.6%
Rushes of 10+ yards = 10.5%
Rushes of 20+ yards = 2.2%

As you can see the only team that was in range of the NFL average was the Patriots – and that was because they were playing the worst team who was on their heels the whole game from an aggressive passing attack.

I’m not trying to criticize this game. I really want to see this thing fly and I did this research to hopefully enlighten the dev team to make this a priority to fix. After seeing the lackluster NCCA 09 effort I wasn’t planning on buying Madden unless it got rave reviews. Then I started looking into Head Coach and said heck I’ll just buy the combo pack and get it with Madden early. Now after seeing this I’m afraid I will have to take a wait and see approach. There are always issues with games but I just can’t play a game with only half my offense being usable. The devs ran the ball an average of 18 times per game (the NFL average is 27) so they have to know this is an issue.

Also, I would like to see more of a “Fog of War” effect in this game with more penalties, fumbles, dropped passes, and poor throws. Interceptions and sacks seem ok (maybe sacks a little high?) I’m not positive these are issues though because of the small sample. However, getting realistic numbers across the board with a nice balance of pass & run is vital for this game to succeed. I would like to see the dev’s take a year to just work on the on field AI – forget the extra stuff that Madden packs in every year which sacrifices the core gameplay. Fans of the Head Coach series are not going to be picky about having the latest, greatest graphics. I’m happy playing text based football games such as ‘Second and Ten’ because it offers realism and I would cream my pants if that game would play out with the graphics of Head Coach.

[broncos24]

thats why their are sliders

[swaldo]

For anyone who wishes to crunch the numbers: Here is the rush tracking from my Excel sheet. Each number reflect the amount of rush yards gained on that play.

NE: 6, 1, 6, 9 ,2, -1, 7, 21, 3, 0, 2, 3, -4, 2, 7, 4, 4, 14, -4, 1

MIA: -1, -2, -3, 6, -3, -2, -1, 5, 6, -3, -5, 3, 5, 5, 2 (TD), 5

NYG: -2, 2, 1 (TD), 3, -4, 11, -6, -2, 1, 1, -2, 4, 11, -3, 4, -3, 1, 6, 2, 7, 15

DAL: 8, 0, -3 (FUMBLE), 3, 4, 4, -2, 2, 4, 7, 12, 1, -1, 0, 15, 2

Also, I forgot to mention how nice it is to see the dev team in the forums. I think they are doing a great job on Head Coach - for them to take over this game from scratch and build it to where it is now in one year is remarkable. I think the future is bright and I can see a day where the kids will buy Madden and the older farts like me will buy Head Coach.

[broncos24]

also i think the computer runs more if they are more sucessful running.

like when i usually play if the computer cant run they just abandon it. So if no changes are made hopefully with fair slider settings the running game should be better and result in the computer to run more.

[bcruise]

I'm not going to agree or disagree with anything you said, but that looks like a very well thought out argument. I'll just add that APF suffers from the same problem - and that game actually counts tackles for losses as a stat.

I think it's a little too early to call anything "broken", but I guess we're all just bored.

[swaldo]

Quote: Originally Posted by broncos24

thats why their are sliders

Well....If they work. I'm getting to the point where I think sliders were a mistake. If the devs were pushed to make a proper playing game then we would'nt have to get all flustered trying to find a slider set every year. For goodness sakes, there are multiple reverse slider threads in the NCAA forum.

[MizzouRah]

This game SHOULD NOT need sliders... I mean, you're not even controlling the players!

Much like NCAA, I'm changing my mind and getting my pre-order cash back and will hold off until I can read some reviews and impressions.

I'm really looking forward to the game, but I'm not plunking down my cash until I see what others think.

[madrob]

what game dont have issues besides they can patch it. or build off past mistakes you sim fans like me need to buy the game no matter what otherwise there will be no head coach 2010. and sorry to say madden will never totally satisfy you. these cats seems to put extra effort on making the game fun and easy to navigate the other stuff will get worked out like others have said this is year one of the game.