(Draft pick <-> salary cap) analysis

[ebongreen]

Yep. Bonuses are fixed across the length of the contract - same amount is paid out every year - so the amount of the bonus decreases as a %oC each year. But it's easiest to see in a player who signed for no bonus.

For instance, Patrick Lopez was drafted in 2009; his salaries are $300K, $330K, and $360K in the three years of his contract. He's now played two years - 09-10, and 10-11. His salary cap figure displayed as $300K during the 10-11 season and now displays as $330 in the current offseason. WTF?

By all means, check it in your own franchise if you don't believe me.

[sketch22]

Thats not really what I meant. If you sign a player with the biggest bonus then his actually salary (not the bonus) will fluctuate less each year. It ends up costing more in the beginning but saves money at the end of the contract. I was just wondering if you had taken into account the difference in variation between the smallest bonus and the biggest one.
The best way to see this is to look at an expensive player you are in negotiations with and click the right thumbstick to see the year to year value difference between the biggest bonus and the smallest one.

[ebongreen]

Umm, I wouldn't think that's so. If the salary is the same but the bonus is different, I expect the same amounts will be paid each year - just the portion of bonus/guaranteed money vs. salary will change. The salary would still increment the same amount - it would just be smaller overall. There would be no reason for a different amortization schedule.

And naturally, the downside to spending lots of money on signing bonus(es) is that it restricts your options in trading/cutting players without killing your cap. YMMV, but I keep my bonuses small overall.

If you've got the time and interest to collect the data, by all means do so and post.

[sketch22]

Example: Darren McFadden Raiders Rookie Contract Negotiation
Smallest Total Contract = 36.57 for 5 years

Smallest Bonus = 8 Million
Year 1 = 4.7 million salary + 1.6 mil bonus = 6.3 Million Total
2 = 5.2 + 1.6 = 6.8
3 = 5.7 + 1.6 = 7.3
4 = 6.2 + 1.6 = 7.8
5 = 6.9 + 1.6 = 8.5
Cap Difference Between Year 1 and 5 = 2.3 million

Largest Bonus = 18 Million
Year 1 = 3 million salary + 3.6 mil bonus = 6.6 Million Total
2 = 3.4 + 3.6 = 7
3 = 3.7 + 3.6 = 7.3
4 = 4.1 + 3.6 = 7.7
5 = 4.5 + 3.6 = 8.1
Cap Difference Between Year 1 and 5 = 1.5 Million

The disparity gets bigger with more years and larger contract values.

Largest Contract = 42.57

8 mil bonus
1 = 5.7 + 1.6 = 7.3
2 = 6.2 + 1.6 = 7.8
3 = 6.9 + 1.6 = 8.5
4 = 7.5 + 1.6 = 9.1
5 = 8.3 + 1.6 = 9.9
Difference = 2.6 mil

18 mil Bonus
1 = 4.0 + 3.6 = 7.6
2 = 4.4 + 3.6 = 8
3 = 4.9 + 3.6 = 8.5
4 = 5.4 + 3.6 = 9.1
5 = 5.9 + 3.6 = 9.5
Difference = 1.9 mil

[ebongreen]

So - if you add bonus money to a contract of a given length and amount, you can essentially "front-load" a contract in %oC a little. Good find!

I suppose you might want to do that drafting/re-signing a player when you've got a lot of cap space to spare and you know you'll have other signings coming up in future years.

Looking at it, I would also note that in both of your examples, the only year in which you actually save more than $100K with the larger bonus is the final year of the contract, when it's time to re-negotiate anyway.

Forgive me, but I'm a little skeptical of the utility of this strategy - especially with the weird accounting display I found, the last year might not ever "count"! But it's still good to know.

[Mike3207]

Quote: Originally Posted by ebongreen

Because I am a huge nerd (which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone on this board anymore), I decided to run some numbers on what sort of money draft picks expect to receive in HC09. It's helpful to me for planning how much salary cap I need to allocate to new players in a given year, and can be useful information for new or long-time GMs. Here's a general list of what I found, looking at an instance of the 2009 English draft. Contract duration: The top three picks in each draft ask for six-year contracts; everyone else in the first round asks for five years. Second-rounders get four-year deals. Third-round and below get three years and are eligible for restricted free agency when that comes around. Signing bonus: First and second round picks always get a bonus. Third rounders or below may or may not settle for a bonus during contract negotiations. Year-to-year signing bonus (how much of a player's bonus is paid in each year of the rookie contract) is generally significant (>1% of the cap, abbreviated %oC) only in the top 10 picks, but becomes very significant in the top five picks. Cut/Trade Signing Bonus Cap Penalty: If you screw up a first-round pick and want to cut or trade that player in year one of his contract, it will cost you at least 1%oC in dead money. [Generally, second-round and below can be cut/traded without significant cap consequences due to the low signing bonus (< $1M) most receive.] Again, the penalty gets much stiffer as the pick number gets closer to #1 overall; blowing the #5 pick will cost you over 10% of your cap in dead money. (For the mathematically-inclined, it's an exponential curve.) First-Year Cap %: First-round picks will cost you at least 1%oC. PIcks above #20 overall will be at least 2%oC; #11 and above will be at least 3%oC. The top five picks will cost you at least 5%oC, with the top pick running close to 10%oC. Second-round picks will run about 0.5%oC; third-rounders cost about 0.4%oC. Fourth-rounders get about 0.33%oC, fifth-rounders about 0.25%oC, sixths and sevenths cost about 0.2%oC. Every year, your team's second- through seventh-round picks - the six you get, not any for which you trade - will cost you at least about 2%oC. Adding your first round pick to that, your annual base draft will run from about 3-4%oC for a Superbowl champ to about 12-15%oC for the worst team in the league. IMO, the "money" picks - most valuable relative to cap figures - are second-round picks: any and all of them. Every player signs four years at a very affordable figure (~0.5%oC) for a potential starter. Next best are #17-32 in the bottom of the first round, also generating very affordable starters, all of whom sign for five years. One question I'm trying to answer is with information like this is, "How much money do I have to re-sign veterans or pick up free agents?" Let's pretend that you keep on your roster all your picks for the duration of their rookie contract. You'll have three each from rounds 3-7 (fifteen players, for ~ 4%oC), four 2s (total ~2%oC), and five 1s (assuming you're not picking in the top three). Suppose your 1s all cost about 2%oC each, for ~10% total. That's twenty-four players, about half your roster, all of whom cost you about 16%oC. Note: generally, draft picks are very affordable labor, and the more of them you have on your roster, the better your cap situation will be. Suppose that due to trading & cuts, you have about 5% of your cap tied up in dead money: you're left with a pool of nearly 80% of the cap to use on retaining RFAs, veteran contracts and free agents, an average of nearly 3%oC per player. Real GMs and number-crunchers on NFL teams have run these numbers, and information is power. Why should you be any less prepared to run your franchise? If anyone would like to see the spreadsheet I used with the draft and contract figures, let me know and I'll post it here.

Couple of things I've noticed recently: You will occasionally get a 1st rounder drafted out of the top 3 who will ask for a 6 year contract(I've seen it with Dane Morrow several times). As far as 2nd rounders go, you will occasionally sign a 2nd round pick to their rookie contract with 0 signing bonus. Don't know how this effects your salary cap analysis, but I thought I'd mention it.

[Mike2001]

thanks alot for the information, this would of really helped me in my two seahawks career. somehow i always ended up with not alot of cap space (i hardly ever trade or cut players)

[ebongreen]

Quote: Originally Posted by mrs844224

Couple of things I've noticed recently: You will occasionally get a 1st rounder drafted out of the top 3 who will ask for a 6 year contract(I've seen it with Dane Morrow several times). As far as 2nd rounders go, you will occasionally sign a 2nd round pick to their rookie contract with 0 signing bonus. Don't know how this effects your salary cap analysis, but I thought I'd mention it.

Good to know. I've never seen those behaviors, but I may be drafting the wrong players.

I doubt it affects the overall math and trends too much. If Morrow gets chosen at #20, I don't imagine he can require a top-five deal. The overall curve of salary increasing exponentially as you approach the first picks in the draft is pretty clear, and a no-bonus-money second-rounder is icing on the cake.

When those have happened to you, did the overall salary remain in line with the pick rank and round?