Because I am a huge nerd (which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone on this board anymore), I decided to run some numbers on what sort of money draft picks expect to receive in HC09. It's helpful to me for planning how much salary cap I need to allocate to new players in a given year, and can be useful information for new or long-time GMs.
Here's a general list of what I found, looking at an instance of the 2009 English draft.
Every year, your team's second- through seventh-round picks - the six you get, not any for which you trade - will cost you at least about 2%oC. Adding your first round pick to that, your annual base draft will run from about 3-4%oC for a Superbowl champ to about 12-15%oC for the worst team in the league.
IMO, the "money" picks - most valuable relative to cap figures - are second-round picks: any and all of them. Every player signs four years at a very affordable figure (~0.5%oC) for a potential starter. Next best are #17-32 in the bottom of the first round, also generating very affordable starters, all of whom sign for five years.
One question I'm trying to answer is with information like this is, "How much money do I have to re-sign veterans or pick up free agents?" Let's pretend that you keep on your roster all your picks for the duration of their rookie contract. You'll have three each from rounds 3-7 (fifteen players, for ~ 4%oC), four 2s (total ~2%oC), and five 1s (assuming you're not picking in the top three). Suppose your 1s all cost about 2%oC each, for ~10% total. That's twenty-four players, about half your roster, all of whom cost you about 16%oC. Note: generally, draft picks are very affordable labor, and the more of them you have on your roster, the better your cap situation will be. Suppose that due to trading & cuts, you have about 5% of your cap tied up in dead money: you're left with a pool of nearly 80% of the cap to use on retaining RFAs, veteran contracts and free agents, an average of nearly 3%oC per player.
Real GMs and number-crunchers on NFL teams have run these numbers, and information is power. Why should you be any less prepared to run your franchise?
If anyone would like to see the spreadsheet I used with the draft and contract figures, let me know and I'll post it here.
Here's a general list of what I found, looking at an instance of the 2009 English draft.
- Contract duration: The top three picks in each draft ask for six-year contracts; everyone else in the first round asks for five years. Second-rounders get four-year deals. Third-round and below get three years and are eligible for restricted free agency when that comes around.
- Signing bonus: First and second round picks always get a bonus. Third rounders or below may or may not settle for a bonus during contract negotiations. Year-to-year signing bonus (how much of a player's bonus is paid in each year of the rookie contract) is generally significant (>1% of the cap, abbreviated %oC) only in the top 10 picks, but becomes very significant in the top five picks.
- Cut/Trade Signing Bonus Cap Penalty: If you screw up a first-round pick and want to cut or trade that player in year one of his contract, it will cost you at least 1%oC in dead money. [Generally, second-round and below can be cut/traded without significant cap consequences due to the low signing bonus (< $1M) most receive.] Again, the penalty gets much stiffer as the pick number gets closer to #1 overall; blowing the #5 pick will cost you over 10% of your cap in dead money. (For the mathematically-inclined, it's an exponential curve.)
- First-Year Cap %: First-round picks will cost you at least 1%oC. PIcks above #20 overall will be at least 2%oC; #11 and above will be at least 3%oC. The top five picks will cost you at least 5%oC, with the top pick running close to 10%oC. Second-round picks will run about 0.5%oC; third-rounders cost about 0.4%oC. Fourth-rounders get about 0.33%oC, fifth-rounders about 0.25%oC, sixths and sevenths cost about 0.2%oC.
Every year, your team's second- through seventh-round picks - the six you get, not any for which you trade - will cost you at least about 2%oC. Adding your first round pick to that, your annual base draft will run from about 3-4%oC for a Superbowl champ to about 12-15%oC for the worst team in the league.
IMO, the "money" picks - most valuable relative to cap figures - are second-round picks: any and all of them. Every player signs four years at a very affordable figure (~0.5%oC) for a potential starter. Next best are #17-32 in the bottom of the first round, also generating very affordable starters, all of whom sign for five years.
One question I'm trying to answer is with information like this is, "How much money do I have to re-sign veterans or pick up free agents?" Let's pretend that you keep on your roster all your picks for the duration of their rookie contract. You'll have three each from rounds 3-7 (fifteen players, for ~ 4%oC), four 2s (total ~2%oC), and five 1s (assuming you're not picking in the top three). Suppose your 1s all cost about 2%oC each, for ~10% total. That's twenty-four players, about half your roster, all of whom cost you about 16%oC. Note: generally, draft picks are very affordable labor, and the more of them you have on your roster, the better your cap situation will be. Suppose that due to trading & cuts, you have about 5% of your cap tied up in dead money: you're left with a pool of nearly 80% of the cap to use on retaining RFAs, veteran contracts and free agents, an average of nearly 3%oC per player.
Real GMs and number-crunchers on NFL teams have run these numbers, and information is power. Why should you be any less prepared to run your franchise?
If anyone would like to see the spreadsheet I used with the draft and contract figures, let me know and I'll post it here.
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