One of the articles I read before posting went through all the math-a-ma-jazz for an NFL team. They put the value of going for 2 after every TD over the course of the season at 3 points. I can see why a coach would find more important things to work on. Time is, after all, one of the resources he must budget!
That really wasn't what I wanted to discuss and on reflection wish I had not included that last paragraph in my post.
What do you do if you are 14 points down and you score with 3:00 to play. Whatever your conversion choice, the rest of the plan is to get the ball back without your opponent scoring and with enough time left on the clock to give you a chance to score another TD. It's the conversions that are interesting.
No one goes for it after the second TD when they need 1 to tie the game and 2 to win (Actually Herman Edwards did with KC against the Chargers in 2008.). As you pointed out, the perception of the ignorant becomes the reality of the pink slip!
But to go for it after the first TD gives you one chance to win and another chance to tie if the first doesn't work out. Sigh.
I will share a story of how this strategy did and didn't work out in the same game. In another post I related that I recovered from a 42-14 deficit. When it was 42-28 and I scored a TD, I went for 2 and made it. I later took a 43-42 lead providing a just reward for my superior planning.
Then my opponent returned my KO for a TD and went for 2 to go up 50-43. There is no justice!
There was more but that's a different story!
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A similar intellectual problem is when to go for 2 if you are 15 points down and score a TD. I need to know if I'm going to make the 2 point conversion so I can plan for one score or two. I need to know now. But they always put off going for two as long as possible. I suppose real football players might get discouraged and give up if you failed.
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Here's another. Fourth and goal at the one yard line with ample time on the clock. I've seen coaches go both ways but I've never seen anyone explain why going for it should be the only logical choice.
Never mind, here's an interesting article that covers it better than I did.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008...urth-down.html