The HC09 All-Unwanted Team

[ebongreen]

Here's a thread for us all to tell the stories of the awesome players you can't believe hit free agency and had no-one bid on them but you. I'll start with a couple.

*

You all know that there are certain personality types of which I'm not fond. I do my best to avoid drafting these players in the first place, and generally trade them away early when I do, to let some other hapless GM attempt contract negotiations. But there are times - there are times - when even I will pick up a free-agent headcase whose talent-to-price-tag ratio is too high to ignore.

The first instance was early on in my current career - I believe the 2010 free agent period. I was already set, IIRC, with Nnamdi and Juran Riley as my starting CBs, but as I was doing my research on free-agent prices I looked at every free agent with an OVR >= 80 that came up for bid, to see how high a price he got relative to the desired contract-ask. (I've done this for every off-season now in my current career. I'm a nerd doing research. Don't judge me. )

Imagine my surprise when Antonio Cromartie is not only on the market, but gets *crickets* for bidders. Not a single team bothers to even show up for the auction other than me. In-game Cromartie is the very definition of diva - Promoter personality, I think, which has no redeeming features whatsoever - but he's a talented SOB nonetheless. Tall, fast, great hands, nothing not to like from a performance factor. So after checking my salary cap and staring wide-eyed for a while ("Really? Really?"), I pull the trigger and sign him.

*

Fast-forward to the 2015 off-season, which is now for me. I'm busy creating another draft guide for Kaven Duncan et al, which will probably get posted sometime in September. Cromartie just turned 30 and served my Packers well. Yet with one year left on his contract, it's time for him to go play on some other team - I cut him before the Senior Bowl.

The research on all the 2015 rookies-to-be involves multiple reloads of the pre-draft off-season to get my numbers correct and make sure I know what the LRN and POT values are for the class. After a couple rounds, my routine involves redoing Pro Days over and over again to accurately capture enough potentials, and then redoing Individual Workouts to catch the last few on the fringe. That means I see the entire free agent period multiple times.

At the head of this year's free agent class? With no bidders? A 26-year-old in-his-prime former-Charger pass-rusher-extraordinaire...

... defensive end Xavier Cox (OVR 95). As the only bidder - and I've simulated this several times - he can be had for a mere $8M in the first year of his contract.

Are you effing KIDDING ME?

The cap numbers for Jared Allen and Chris Long are $10-13M in 2015. Kibo Bakari (who is an awesome player, but not nearly as good as Cox) has a higher cap figure in this career. That's stupid-cheap money for a player of Cox's caliber.

I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but when I make my real run-through of this offseason I probably will. Just too good a player/deal to pass up.

What are your most awe-inspiring deals on unwanted players? Share!

[Mike3207]

I see Qbs and WRs go for the minimum more than anyone else. Sweetney is a good example of this, because the teams sign everyone inseason 85 overall and up, but it leads to cap problems later.

QB Josh Johnson-5-32
WR Earl Bennett-5-27
LE Patrick Kerney-92 overall DE-2-17, after no bids twice.
QB Chad Gunn-5-20-to Saints, where he put up big numbers.
QB Cole Roberts-5-23-where he got Motivated, and became 92 overall QB.
ROLB Shawne Merriman-5-30-he was 30 though.
QB Ben Roethlisberger-No bids twice, then 2-12.

[Byron Yatch]

I believe the reasons someone is not picked up are 2 fold. One is the attitude, as we all know, which can affect how they react to your emotional and calm choices or if they get benched.

But the BIGGER reason is the fact that if NO ONE bids on him and he gets past the draft into the preseason, he can be signed for the league minimum at that overall for the year. That tends to be 2.5 mill instead of 8 million. So they are in effect hoping because no one else is going after him now, no one will untill after the draft.

You always see players cut as dead weight when the team cant afford them anymore if they want to keep others with better attitudes or fit their philosophy better. Granted Cox is a beast thats practically unparalled, but in the wrong philosophy, he may only be great instead of legendary....

I know its splitting hairs In this scenario but the cpu has to choose whats best for itself based on the philosophies and playbooks of the head coach.... They may have had someone they felt might fit better(even if I cant think of anyone who would be better than cox).

Ive seen dravanti jordan and plenty of other top 50 players from the prima guide go into free agency with no bids.... He may have also gotten injured too much for the team that he played for at the start because of their crappy trainer.... Look at his career stats and find the team that drafted him. Highly unlikely you're gonna be able to find out who their trainer was but if they didnt fire their first trainer i can tell you who it was and if it was his fault...

[ebongreen]

Byron, those are all reasonable ideas on why elite players go unsigned. Personally, I think it's a bug/feature in the AI regarding the size of the contract these players reasonably expect, and the available cap room for any given team. Most teams do not have 10%oC they can devote to potentially signing a single free agent, so they just don't even bother - leaving treasures like Cox to bargain hunters like me. I don't think the AI is smart enough and long-range-planning enough to forecast pre-camp signing opportunities. A human player may, but I don't think the AI is that long-term.

As for injuries, Cox is virtually fresh off the factory floor: not a scratch on him. It would take a near act-of-God to hurt him anyway - his injury resistance is in the upper 90s, I think.

[rdnk]

I've seen Cromartie as a FA before with no bidders on him. I was all over him; big CBs are tough to find. Later I figured out the whole preseason business, so unless I want them on a long term deal (Cromartie was reasonable), I let them slip.

I have seen a few other 80s OVA players get no bids, but not anyone as good as Cox.

[Skarecrow]

Quote: Originally Posted by rdnk

Later I figured out the whole preseason business, so unless I want them on a long term deal (Cromartie was reasonable), I let them slip.

care to elaborate rdnk? what do you mean by "figured out the whole preseason business"?

[bblack1207]

Don't Even Want To ***-U-Me A Reason Why They End Up There But My List Of "Cheap Thrills" Who Learn Well And Get Over 90 Overall Through Two (2) Three (3) Year Stints With Two (2) Different Teams Thus Far(Colts, Eagles Respectively,):

QB - John Johnson, Andre Woodson
RB - Joseph Addai, Darren Sproles, Michael Turner, Ray Rice
FB - Carl Stewart, Brian Zeller, Peyton Hillis, R.D. Spurlock
WR - Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, Braylon Edwards, Wes Welker,
Devin Hester, Donnie Avery, Marvin Harrison, Roy Williams
TE - Antonio Gates, Ben Watson, Kevin Boss, Fred Davis

Not To Bore You With the Defensive Players I Have Nabbed Cheaply Through Free Agency, Particulary Through Cheap 1 Year Signings Initially, But - Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, Lawrence Timmons, Antonio Cromartie, Antonio Boxx, Bobby Bailey, Dominique Barber, Lito Sheppard.

[Mike3207]

Quote: Originally Posted by Skarecrow

care to elaborate rdnk? what do you mean by "figured out the whole preseason business"?

If I had to guess-I'd say it's the fact that teams figure out after a couple of years it's a lot cheaper to get QB's and WR's on a 1 year deal in preseason. Players that ask for 6-8 million and 5-6 years in FA-can often be signed in training camp and preseason for 600K, 720K and otherwise. Not just those psoitions, but others as well. Sometimes those players will be signed in season; more likely not and enter FA again.