The Kaven Duncan (English 2015) Draft

[ebongreen]

I've completed a preliminary survey of the group, including comparisons, pre-draft learning and Balanced Potential. My new spreadsheet isn't fleshed out with all the notes I want, so it will be posted later when it's "finished". With that in mind, here's some general information.

It's not a very good year at QB, HB, DE, or any linebacker group. It's also a bad year if you want a tall press-man corner who's not a headcase. On the other hand, it's a pretty good year at safety, DT, and WR, though the wideouts have a high diva factor.

There are 29 players with Bal POT >= 90. The highest potential in the class belongs to a developmental punter, annoyingly enough, and he's a p!$$ant.

Among the top 12 players by potential, another is a developmental kicker, and seven are knuckleheads. One is a very good cover CB with stone hands (CTH 10), and another is a Ath 78 DE with a possible LRN 99 score (O!VER!RATED! *clap clap clap-clap-clap*). Two are high-round diva receivers. The best and sanest of the batch are: Kaven Duncan, who might not be as durable as you'd like in a #1 overall pick; TE Teondre Mann, who is a hybrid of Karron Cousins and Storm Stewart with nearly Will Kirby's run-blocking skills; star RT Michael Foster, a much better pass protector than run blocker, with athleticism reminiscent of Joe Staley; and a 6' late-round/undrafted sleeper WR from Alcorn State (shades of Donald Driver).

More later, probably by September's end. If you have particular questions before I post the in-depth review and master sheet, let me know.

[tarek]

ebon,

Did you ever get around to doing an analysis of the 2015 draft?

[ebongreen]

I'm back - a little.

I've been busy for months in a variety of ways, both gaming and otherwise, and I don't think I'll ever post here the way I used to. But HC09 remains one of my favorite games, and I haven't quit on my current career. I finished off the '15-'16 year and just completed my English '16 draft this weekend, with a spreadsheet for that draft under construction.

I haven't forgotten about the old business of this one, however, so here we go.

• Quarterbacks: Kaven Duncan is good but lacks elite durability. [USF] is short-ish at 6'0", but tougher and is probably a better bet if you need at least a stop-gap starter between elite talents at the position. [Ga. Southern] will win you games as a fill-in, and break when sacked.
• Halfbacks: Cashmere Scott has potential, but won't stay healthy: though he won't cost you approval, he'll cost you cash and a high pick as a bust-in-effect. [Rutgers] is also highly overrated - weak athletically and with poor stamina. [Oregon State] is damaged goods. [Massachusetts] is short, isn't strong and only has the stamina to be a complimentary back, but is better suited to that role than [Nebr.-Omaha]. Of the two entries from [Richmond], the Lamont Jordan comp is best due to his personality, and is easily the best value at halfback for this draft.
• Fullbacks: The top fullback is an oaf, and the next man up may not have the learning to cope with your playbook. Not a good year.
• Wideouts: Finally a position of depth and strength. Both Natrick Jackson and [Wake Forest] will make a coach happy on the field while aging you with their personalities. Jackson is more-or-less Nate Jameel with a bad attitude: an elite talent and a headcase. [Wake Forest] isn't elite, but he's pretty close; [S. Illinois] is in that same next tier, and a little less durable. [Auburn] I feel is likely to underperform due to durability, CIT and fumbling concerns; the sleeper at [Alcorn St.] is a better bet IMO, and the one receiver from this class that made my roster. That's five guys with POT >= 90, followed by a parade of ten more guys with POT between 89 and 80. The best of the rest are probably the Cotchery comparisons from [Texas Tech] and [Cincinnati].
• Tight Ends: Teondre Mann is a taller Storm Stewart, and in serious competition with Karron Cousins for the best TE so far in the English path. In fact, he may end up replacing Cousins on my team when KC's second contract expires. [Southern Miss] is a short receiving-type TE; I think I'd favor [Rutgers] instead, if you're into H-back types. [Delaware St.] brings up the rear - or the middle, if you want a TE that's taller than 6'2".
• Offensive Tackles: Another "meh" year at left tackle. [Michigan] is the best, but not particularly durable or fast, and a knucklehead to boot. I'd avoid him. [UCLA] is an adequate starter, but probably better suited to RT (in some version of reality) where he can get help and doesn't need the speed of a LT. In-game, he's probably right where he should be.
  At right tackle, things are much better, and you can fill both tackle spots with guys from this group. Michael Foster has the size, speed, and skills to pass-protect on the right, and [SW Miss St] is talented enough to bookend on the left side. Neither are incredible run-blockers, but by this point in your career you should have coaches with special skills to help with that - and these days most tackles get paid to pass-protect.
  Beyond the top four, there are three Langston Walkers with speed enough to be decent backups if you need them in that role, and a couple could move inside to guard.
• Guards: One gem and several rough-cuts. The best is RG [Valparaiso], who can also move to center - he's my backup LG. LG [Oregon State] isn't as fast as I like, but he'll do on a zone-scheme team. Likewise RG [Oklahoma St.], who's even slower. The remainder are fit mostly as backups, and not fast ones.
• Centers: Two noteworthy centers, with sleeper [Canisius] being the prize. [Wash. St.] is marginally more talented, but also slower and a PITA.
• Defensive Tackles: A good group, but not full of prototypes. Josh Campbell is a short fast wide-bodied pass-rusher. If you run a Tampa-2 and are looking for a Warren Sapp-ish talent, he's your man. He will go high, however, as in top-eight. [Maine] is taller and slightly slower, but is otherwise a similar fit-to-scheme. [USC] is this year's big man at 6'5 320+, but you shouldn't expect him to be your top DT - he's a great complement, though, as a 4-3-style NT. [Illinois St.] seems more like a 3-4 DE than a DT with his build, speed and skills - you may consider converting him. If you need them, another pair of Chris Hovans and a couple of Marcus Tubbs-alikes can fill out the low end of your depth chart.
• Ends: Another vomitous group of right ends, including bust Levon Kramer. [Buffalo] is the best of a bad group, and a 4-3 only end at that. There's a relative trove at LE, by contrast. Rod Jenkins was available to me in the 2nd half of the first round, and he can hold serve on either side and is a great guy as well. [Saginaw Valley] and [UNLV] are the next step down, both primarily suited for 4-3 play. [Florida] is a poor athlete.
• Outside Backers: One star and not much else. If you don't already have a starter at ROLB, Troy Wakins will do the job (especially in a 3-4 scheme) if you can get him in the middle of Round 1. Three backup-class 'backers, ROLB [Texas Tech] and [Texas State], and LOLB [Murray State], none as I recall with fabulous athleticism.
• Inside Backers: This batch is even worse than the OLBs. [VMI] easily tops the list; probably the next best is [Notre Dame], who by draft position is a bust IIRC. Avoid.
• Cornerbacks: It's the year of the short cranky cornerback! Of the top four, none are over 6', and three are knuckleheads. The fourth is sleeper [Akron], who at 5'9" is suitable almost exclusively for Tampa-2 or nickel/dime work. [Notre Dame] has stone hands; both he and [USC] are gone in the top-half of Round 1, as I believe is [Oklahoma]. None of the three Charles Tillman clones can really press, which makes me very sad. For my preferences - tall press-man corner - the best buy is [Miami Univ.], who languished for nearly the entire season on my inactive list every gameday. If you're a Tampa-2 team or you're hurting for backups, [Akron]'s your man - otherwise good luck finding real value in this batch.
• Safeties: Good safeties, but they go at a high price. Both starting strong safeties, [Georgia] and [Wisconsin] go by around the end of Round 1. Of the lesser lights at SS, [TCU] is probably the best. In free safeties, [Miami] and [Kent State] are the starters, with Kent State being the more desirable of the two in my eyes. Neither are trained killers as far as HPW goes, but both will do the job given development time. [Central St Ohio] is a short marginal starter or backup.
• Kickers/Punters: The best punter is clearly [Southern], and he's a knucklehead. Your best bet for sanity and ease of maintenance is probably [Robert Morris], if you must have a punter this year. In kickers, either [VMI] or [S.C. State] will serve.

Conclusions: Outside the wide receiver and offensive line on offense, and the left end and safety sets on defense, this is not a talent-rich draft, much like the previous year. Talent, such as it is, is stacked in the first round with late sleepers few and far between. Get what you can, and wait for better years.

Players with Balanced POT >=90: 29