Building a better draft value chart

[swaldo]

A good read is the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus. In it they have a modified draft value chart based on their research. They note how the teams that draft down have ended up better than teams that draft up. These teams have seemed to figure out the Johnson chart is flawed because there is an absurd overvaluation placed on eary picks.

During the last 5 years the top two teams that have drafted down are Green Bay and New England. The top two that drafted up are Detroit and Oakland. It also includes and analysis of big trades this year such as JAX trading away four picks to BAL - only to watch them squander away their great fortune to Houston.

Example: Another poster here wanted to coach Denver and trade up with Miami to get the #1 overall in the draft. In return he would give Miami Champ Bailey + his #1 pick (12th overall.) According to the ESPN draft value chart the #1 pick is worth 3000 and the number 12 is worth 1200 points. This leaves a difference of 1800 points which is comparable to a round 1 (4th overall pick.) This is probably not a good deal for Miami because Champ is of course an aging veteran.

The Prospectus modified ADV chart values the #1 pick at 3000 and the #12 at 2665. This is a difference of 335 points - which is the comparable value of a 4th round pick (#131 overall.) If I were Miami that would be a very tempting offer because Lord knows they need bodies.

The book also has an article titled "The injury effect" and lists the total number of injuries - for example there were 9046 players listed as probable from 2001-2007. 89% played and 11% did not play. Out of the 12762 players listed as OUT/IR/PUP only 0.4% played.

This book is chock full of interesting numbers and articles - a recommended read for fans of this game and devs alike. It reminds me of the classic books "The hidden game of football" and "The thinking mans guide to pro football." The Prospectus costs only $14 at overstock.com - the retail price is $22.

http://www.overstock.com/Books-Movie...i_sku=11094847

2008prospectus.jpg

[slingblade73]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

I have read it cover to cover, well worth the cash.

[x1Blumpkin1x]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

I think I might pick this up. Thanks for the heads up.

[JRod]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

What's Boar Jackson rated?

[slingblade73]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

What's Boar Jackson rated?

Boar Jackson only averaged 73.2 yards per game and never cracked a thousand yards in a season.

[swaldo]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

What's Boar Jackson rated?

It's not a historical reference, but a look into the future with team previews etc. They even have OL/DL rankings and stats. Beware it's as big as a telephone book - almost 500 pages!

[JRod]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

It's not a historical reference, but a look into the future with team previews etc. They even have OL/DL rankings and stats. Beware it's as big as a telephone book - almost 500 pages!

Um I was kidding because isn't Boar Jackson, supposed to be Bo Jackson in Josh's created draft class?

[thesimulator]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

A good read is the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus. In it they have a modified draft value chart based on their research. They note how the teams that draft down have ended up better than teams that draft up. These teams have seemed to figure out the Johnson chart is flawed because there is an absurd overvaluation placed on eary picks.

During the last 5 years the top two teams that have drafted down are Green Bay and New England. The top two that drafted up are Detroit and Oakland. It also includes and analysis of big trades this year such as JAX trading away four picks to BAL - only to watch them squander away their great fortune to Houston.

Example: Another poster here wanted to coach Denver and trade up with Miami to get the #1 overall in the draft. In return he would give Miami Champ Bailey + his #1 pick (12th overall.) According to the ESPN draft value chart the #1 pick is worth 3000 and the number 12 is worth 1200 points. This leaves a difference of 1800 points which is comparable to a round 1 (4th overall pick.) This is probably not a good deal for Miami because Champ is of course an aging veteran.

The Prospectus modified ADV chart values the #1 pick at 3000 and the #12 at 2665. This is a difference of 335 points - which is the comparable value of a 4th round pick (#131 overall.) If I were Miami that would be a very tempting offer because Lord knows they need bodies.

The book also has an article titled "The injury effect" and lists the total number of injuries - for example there were 9046 players listed as probable from 2001-2007. 89% played and 11% did not play. Out of the 12762 players listed as OUT/IR/PUP only 0.4% played.

This book is chock full of interesting numbers and articles - a recommended read for fans of this game and devs alike. It reminds me of the classic books "The hidden game of football" and "The thinking mans guide to pro football." The Prospectus costs only $14 at overstock.com - the retail price is $22.

http://www.overstock.com/Books-Movie...i_sku=11094847

[ATTACH]9915[/ATTACH]

Very interesting post swaldo, thanks for the tip. I have always felt that the value chart is the best way to manipulate the draft. It comes down to how much value I as a coach put on the player. Does anyone recall how Jimmy Johnson let the cat out of the bag in regards to his chart?

It was me that was thinking about trading Champ to Miami and the 12 for their number 1. Its an idea I floated around, especially since Champ will start the downhill slide soon. I may still pull the trigger depending on the salary cap repercussion.

[ahunter5]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

Prospectus is always a great read. I buy the baseball version every year. I'm probably going to pick up the football version this year, as well.

Having said that, I'm more than pleased to see HC using the exact same coach as the NFL teams. ProFootballTalk.com mentioned that some teams started using a newer chart that gave fewer points to the top picks due to the massive contracts.

[swaldo]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

Actually, Cowboys executive Mike McCoy created the chart for Johnson - although Johnson "helped." Not sure how or when it was leaked.

I always thought trading down was the better idea and this book pretty much confirms it. I look forward to testing that strategy in the game since the rumour I heard is that Head Coach uses the Johnson chart for it's trading AI. If the game is realistic I bet coaches will have fun in the off season testing their own strategies as well.

[Step2001]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

<TABLE id=table558 cellSpacing=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000080">

Draft Pick Value Chart by pick and points

</TH></TR><TR><TD><TABLE class=arial12DkBlue id=table603 cellSpacing=4 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=arial11White align=middle bgColor=#08092a><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 1</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 2</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 3</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 4</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 5</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 6</TD><TD bgColor=#000080 colSpan=2>Round 7</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>1</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>3,000</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>33</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>580</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>65</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>265</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>97</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>112</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>129</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>43</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>161</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>27</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>193</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>14.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>2,600</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>34</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>560</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>66</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>260</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>98</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>108</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>130</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>42</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>162</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>26.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>194</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>13.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>3</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>2,200</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>35</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>550</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>67</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>255</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>99</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>104</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>131</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>41</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>163</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>26.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>195</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>13.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,800</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>36</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>540</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>68</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>250</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>100</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>100</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>132</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>40</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>164</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>25.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>196</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>13</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>5</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,700</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>37</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>530</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>69</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>245</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>101</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>96</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>133</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>39.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>165</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>25.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>197</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>12.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,600</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>38</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>520</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>70</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>240</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>102</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>92</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>134</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>39</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>166</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>25</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>198</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>12.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>7</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,500</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>39</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>510</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>71</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>235</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>103</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>88</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>135</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>38.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>167</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>24.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>199</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>11.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,400</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>40</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>500</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>72</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>230</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>104</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>86</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>136</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>38</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>168</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>24.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>200</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>11.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>9</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,350</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>41</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>490</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>73</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>225</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>105</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>84</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>137</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>37.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>169</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>23.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>201</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>11</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>10</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,300</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>42</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>480</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>74</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>220</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>106</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>82</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>138</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>37</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>170</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>23.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>202</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>10.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>11</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,250</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>43</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>470</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>75</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>215</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>107</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>80</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>139</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>36.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>171</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>23</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>203</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>10.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>12</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,200</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>44</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>460</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>76</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>210</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>108</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>78</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>140</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>36</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>172</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>22.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>204</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>9.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>13</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,150</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>45</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>450</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>77</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>205</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>109</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>76</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>141</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>35.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>173</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>22.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>205</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>9.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>14</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,100</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>46</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>440</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>78</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>200</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>110</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>74</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>142</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>35</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>174</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>21.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>206</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>9</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>15</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,050</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>47</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>430</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>79</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>195</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>111</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>72</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>143</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>34.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>175</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>21.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>207</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>8.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>16</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>1,000</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>48</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>420</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>80</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>190</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>112</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>70</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>144</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>34</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>176</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>21</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>208</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>8.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>17</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>950</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>49</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>410</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>81</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>185</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>113</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>68</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>145</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>33.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>177</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>20.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>209</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>7.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>18</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>900</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>50</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>400</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>82</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>180</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>114</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>66</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>146</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>33</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>178</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>20.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>210</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>7.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>19</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>875</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>51</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>390</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>83</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>175</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>115</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>64</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>147</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>32.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>179</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>19.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>211</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>7</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>20</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>850</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>52</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>380</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>84</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>170</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>116</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>62</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>148</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>32.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>180</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>19.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>212</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>6.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>21</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>800</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>53</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>370</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>85</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>165</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>117</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>60</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>149</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>31.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>181</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>19</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>213</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>6.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>22</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>780</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>54</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>360</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>86</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>160</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>118</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>58</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>150</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>31.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>182</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>18.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>214</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>5.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>23</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>760</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>55</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>350</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>87</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>155</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>119</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>56</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>151</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>31</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>183</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>18.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>215</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>5.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>24</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>740</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>56</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>340</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>88</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>150</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>120</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>54</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>152</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>30.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>184</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>17.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>216</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>5</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>25</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>720</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>57</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>330</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>89</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>145</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>121</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>52</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>153</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>30.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>185</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>17.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>217</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>4.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>26</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>700</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>58</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>320</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>90</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>140</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>122</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>50</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>154</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>29.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>186</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>17</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>218</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>4.2</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>27</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>680</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>59</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>310</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>91</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>136</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>123</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>49</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>155</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>29.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>187</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>16.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>219</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>3.8</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>28</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>660</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>60</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>300</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>92</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>132</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>124</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>48</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>156</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>29</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>188</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>16.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>220</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>3.4</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>29</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>640</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>61</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>292</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>93</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>128</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>125</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>47</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>157</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>28.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>189</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>15.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>221</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>3</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>30</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>620</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>62</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>284</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>94</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>124</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>126</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>46</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>158</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>28.2</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>190</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>15.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>222</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>2.6</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>31</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>600</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>63</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>276</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>95</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>120</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>127</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>45</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>159</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>27.8</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>191</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>15</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>223</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>2.3</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ededee>32</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>590</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>64</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>270</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>96</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>116</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>128</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>44</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>160</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>27.4</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>192</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>14.6</TD><TD bgColor=#ededee>224</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Step2001]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

They have talked about the chart and the top five to ten selections and how they need to be re-evaluated and given new lower point totals for those selections.

That's based on the salaries those spots tend to bring. That's why teams shy away from trading up. Not at the talent in the top of the round.

If teams did not have to cough up a mighty chunk of money & then cough up major draft picks. The possibility of trading up would be more enticing.

If you are a team that is ONE RB away and this Boar Jackson is in the incoming draft class. Do you try and trade up and get him?
Noting that this is the last piece to the puzzle you think you need.

Teams that are set are more likely to trade up for that one player then they are to trade down for extra picks.
Yeah, NE has done it re-stocking their team. But they did not exactly drop far in the first rd. before selection the LB, Mayo!

Dallas would have gone after the possibility of trading up for McFadden, but the cost was to high (Draft picks/Players & Money).

[Mike3207]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

Thought about putting this in my Knowledge thread, but thought it might be better to bump it. Keep in mind things will vary a bit with regard to future picks and how good a team estimates the other team to be.I'd have to guess 224 has a value of 2.0, unless it really does have no value, being the last pick.

[Skarecrow]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

Thought about putting this in my Knowledge thread, but thought it might be better to bump it. Keep in mind things will vary a bit with regard to future picks and how good a team estimates the other team to be.I'd have to guess 224 has a value of 2.0, unless it really does have no value, being the last pick.

from my point of view, round 7 in general has little-to-no value, simply due to contract concerns. rounds 2-6 give me 3 year contracts, where if my guy is a diamond-in-the-rough, I've got a season to turn him into a starter, and then a season-and-a-half where he'll play dirt cheap. If I pick him up during round 7, we go into contract re-negotiations right as he realizes he's going to become something in this league after all... and suddenly he wants a monster contract (compared to his draft position).

I would have no problem doing something like, say, trading picks 193 and 196 for pick 191.

[Mike3207]

Re: Building a better draft value chart

from my point of view, round 7 in general has little-to-no value, simply due to contract concerns. rounds 2-6 give me 3 year contracts, where if my guy is a diamond-in-the-rough, I've got a season to turn him into a starter, and then a season-and-a-half where he'll play dirt cheap. If I pick him up during round 7, we go into contract re-negotiations right as he realizes he's going to become something in this league after all... and suddenly he wants a monster contract (compared to his draft position).

I would have no problem doing something like, say, trading picks 193 and 196 for pick 191.

Well, if they had no value, you couldn't trade 2 7th round picks for 6-191 You make a good point about contracts, although I have seen 7th round picks get 3 year contracts. For example, in my most recent 2008 draft both Reggie Corner and Jack Ikegwuonu received 3 year deals. I'm not sure how the Game AI determines which 7th round picks get 2 vs. 3 years, but if I had to guess it would be number of draft picks.I will admit 7th round picks are a bit of a crapshoot, whereas rounds 3-6 are surefire RFA contracts.