I looked at this in the debugger and saw what is causing this.
The defender first decides what direction he wants to push the receiver. In the case of a streak he wants to push the receiver inside since that's where his help is. The calculation of who wins looks like this:
Random Range = Defender Press rating (0 to 1) + Neutral buffer (1.0) + Receiver Release Rating (0 to 1)
Random number in range is picked:
Rand < Defender Press = defender win
Rand < Defender Press + Neutral Buffer = neutral
Rand > Defender Press + Neutral Buffer = Receiver win
The problem arises from the fact that if the receiver is on the opposite side of where the defender wants to push him, he gets a bonus that multiplies his release rating by up to 2 times. In the case of Ginn vs. Asamougha the final chances were a 1.0 for Asamougha and a 1.16 for Ginn because of the positional bonus.
Asamougha 1.0/3.16 ( 31% chance of win )
Neutral 1.0/3.16 chance of win (31% chance of neutral)
Ginn 1.16/3.16 chance of win (Ginn 36% chance of win)
I made the following changes:
1. Remove the positional bonus, users aren’t going to understand why a crappy guy consistently beats a good guy over a 1 and a half foot difference in x-position.
2. Increase the size of the neutral buffer to 2.0, since our wins and losses are super dramatic. A "neutral" in essence can count as a win for a defender since he stays right with him.
The end result is this:
Asamougha 1.0/3.67 ( 27% chance of win )
Neutral 2.0/3.67 chance of win (.54 chance of neutral)
Ginn .67/3.67 chance of win (Ginn 18% chance of win)
This now means that in the case of Asamougha vs. Ginn, Asamougha will stay right with Ginn step for step 82% of the time, with 1/4 of those times having him stopping Ginn right in his tracks with a good press. This felt like a really good balance but sliders will also effect this if the folks on the forums wanted to see them even more dominant. Pressing a guy is obviously a risky proposition in the NFL so you don't want someone to be able to hold a guy at the line every single time.
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