The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
Disclaimer: I had some difficulty in selecting a forum to put this in, but I figured it is more about Madden than actual football so I've placed it here; if that's taboo, I apologize.
Who else does this? I've set up a franchise with the latest roster update (I know, it's not wholly accurate) and I adjust the depth charts based on the inactive lists for each week. Some preface.... Earlier this year, I used NHL 09 to make predictions that fell just shy of being wholly accurate for the Cup Finals. I blame that goof on my own interference in the "science" of EA Sports; the game froze and I had to restart it--prior to the reset, the Pens won, but the Wings won the second game, which was the one I went with as the prediction. The game was 6-0 prior to that prediction goof. The precedent... Every year since '04, EA has run Super Bowl simulations using the newest edition of Madden. The results...
They say that Madden NFL 10 is the most authentic football game there ever has been, so I want to see how accurate it is. Week 1 Prediction results: 10-6 Most accurate prediction: Dallas/Tampa Bay (1 point difference) Madden: Steelers - 20, Titans - 10 Reality: Steelers - 13, Titans - 10 (OT) CORRECT! Madden: Ravens - 23, Chiefs - 9 Reality: Ravens - 38, Chiefs - 24 CORRECT! Madden: Texans - 27, Jets - 24 Reality: Jets - 24, Texans - 7 INCORRECT! Madden: Browns - 27, Vikings - 24 Reality: Vikings 34, Browns - 20 INCORRECT! Madden: Panthers - 24, Eagles - 7 Reality: Eagles - 38, Panthers - 10 INCORRECT! Madden: Jaguars - 28, Colts - 21 Reality: Colts - 14, Jaguars 12 INCORRECT! Madden: Broncos - 20, Bengals - 17 Reality: Broncos 12, Bengals 7 CORRECT! Madden: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 20 Reality: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 21 CORRECT! Madden: Saints - 17, Lions - 7 Reality: Saints - 45, Lions 27 CORRECT! Madden: Falcons - 31, Dolphins - 28 (OT) Reality: Falcons 19, Dolphins - 7 CORRECT! Madden: Seahawks - 22, Rams - 3 Reality: Seahawks 28, Rams - 0 CORRECT! Madden: Giants - 20, Redskins - 13 Reality: Giants - 23, Redskins - 17 CORRECT! Madden: Cardinals - 27, 49ers - 24 (OT) Reality: 49ers - 20, Cardinals - 16 INCORRECT! Madden: Bears - 23, Packers - 21 Reality: Packers 21, Bears 15 INCORRECT! Madden: Patriots - 27, Bills - 3 Reality: Patriots - 25, Bills - 24 CORRECT! Madden: Chargers - 20, Raiders - 13 Reality: Chargers - 24, Raiders - 20 CORRECT! Thoughts? Suggestions to improve the accuracy of this great guessing game? The methodology behind the first week's sims was simple and I'm looking for some refinement: 15 minute quarters with a 15 second runoff on very slow with the difficulty (not sure how much of a difference this makes in simulated games) set to All-Madden. I'm looking into using some of the sliders schemes I've seen set up by people to get more realistic stats. |
I don't think the clock settings (such as Q length or runoff) make any difference in simulated games.
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
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It went 10-6 in its first week so I'm hoping to at least get that for Week 2. |
Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
Are you simming or CPU-vs.-CPU?
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
Simming each game. I tried to go CPU v CPU and let it play out while I did other things, but the game I tested that for (Buffalo/New England) was absurd--the Patriots won 98-6. Any suggestions on how to prevent that?
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Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
Week 2
Prediction results: 9-7 Most accurate prediction: Carolina/Atlanta (3 pt difference) Madden: Oakland 23, Kansas City 18 Reality: Oakland 13, Kansas City 10 CORRECT! Madden: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 28 Reality: Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17 CORRECT! Madden: Minnesota 20, Detroit 13 Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13<o></o> CORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 10 Reality: Cincinnati 31, Green Bay 24<o></o> INCORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7 Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31<o></o> INCORRECT!<o></o><o></o> Madden: Washington 28, St Louis 21 Reality: Washington 9, St Louis 7<o></o> CORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Atlanta 26, Carolina 21 Reality: Atlanta 28, Carolina 20<o></o> CORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: New England 20, New York Jets 13 Reality: New York Jets 16, New England 9<o></o> INCORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: New Orleans 41, Philadelphia 24 Reality: New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22<o></o> CORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: San Francisco 24, Seattle 14 Reality: San Francisco 23, Seattle 10<o></o> CORRECT<o></o>! <o></o> Madden: Tampa Bay 10, Buffalo 3 Reality: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20<o></o> INCORRECT! Madden: Denver 31, Cleveland 28 Reality: Denver 27, Cleveland 6<o></o> CORRECT! <o></o> Madden: San Diego 21, Baltimore 10 Reality: Baltimore 31, San Diego 26 INCORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 13 Reality: Chicago 17, Pittsburgh 14 INCORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Dallas 30, New York Giants 10 Reality: New York Giants 33, Dallas 31<o></o> INCORRECT!<o></o> <o></o> Madden: Indianapolis 33, Miami 13 Reality:<o> Indianapolis 27, Miami 23 </o>CORRECT!<o></o> |
Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)
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