The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

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  • alifeincomplete
    I bent my Wookiee!
    • Jul 2008
    • 1255
    #1

    The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

    Disclaimer: I had some difficulty in selecting a forum to put this in, but I figured it is more about Madden than actual football so I've placed it here; if that's taboo, I apologize.

    Who else does this? I've set up a franchise with the latest roster update (I know, it's not wholly accurate) and I adjust the depth charts based on the inactive lists for each week.

    Some preface....

    Earlier this year, I used NHL 09 to make predictions that fell just shy of being wholly accurate for the Cup Finals. I blame that goof on my own interference in the "science" of EA Sports; the game froze and I had to restart it--prior to the reset, the Pens won, but the Wings won the second game, which was the one I went with as the prediction. The game was 6-0 prior to that prediction goof.

    The precedent...

    Every year since '04, EA has run Super Bowl simulations using the newest edition of Madden. The results...
    • 2004 - Patriots 23, Panthers 20<sup id="cite_ref-34" class="reference"></sup> (Actual Score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29)
    • 2005 - Patriots 47, Eagles 31 <sup id="cite_ref-35" class="reference"></sup>(Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21)
    • 2006 - Steelers 24, Seahawks 19 <sup id="cite_ref-36" class="reference"></sup> (Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10)
    • 2007 - Colts 38, Bears 27 <sup id="cite_ref-37" class="reference"></sup>(Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17)
    • 2008- Patriots 38, Giants 30 <sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference"></sup>(Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14)
    • 2009- Steelers 28, Cardinals 24 <sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference"></sup>(Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23)

    Madden NFL - Wikipedia
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_NFL#Annual_EA_Super_Bowl_simulation


    They say that Madden NFL 10 is the most authentic football game there ever has been, so I want to see how accurate it is.

    Week 1
    Prediction results: 10-6
    Most accurate prediction: Dallas/Tampa Bay (1 point difference)

    Madden: Steelers - 20, Titans - 10
    Reality: Steelers - 13, Titans - 10 (OT)
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Ravens - 23, Chiefs - 9
    Reality: Ravens - 38, Chiefs - 24
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Texans - 27, Jets - 24
    Reality: Jets - 24, Texans - 7
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Browns - 27, Vikings - 24
    Reality: Vikings 34, Browns - 20
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Panthers - 24, Eagles - 7
    Reality: Eagles - 38, Panthers - 10
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Jaguars - 28, Colts - 21
    Reality: Colts - 14, Jaguars 12
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Broncos - 20, Bengals - 17
    Reality: Broncos 12, Bengals 7
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 20
    Reality: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 21
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Saints - 17, Lions - 7
    Reality: Saints - 45, Lions 27
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Falcons - 31, Dolphins - 28 (OT)
    Reality: Falcons 19, Dolphins - 7
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Seahawks - 22, Rams - 3
    Reality: Seahawks 28, Rams - 0
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Giants - 20, Redskins - 13
    Reality: Giants - 23, Redskins - 17
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Cardinals - 27, 49ers - 24 (OT)
    Reality: 49ers - 20, Cardinals - 16
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Bears - 23, Packers - 21
    Reality: Packers 21, Bears 15
    INCORRECT!

    Madden: Patriots - 27, Bills - 3
    Reality: Patriots - 25, Bills - 24
    CORRECT!

    Madden: Chargers - 20, Raiders - 13
    Reality: Chargers - 24, Raiders - 20
    CORRECT!

    Thoughts? Suggestions to improve the accuracy of this great guessing game? The methodology behind the first week's sims was simple and I'm looking for some refinement: 15 minute quarters with a 15 second runoff on very slow with the difficulty (not sure how much of a difference this makes in simulated games) set to All-Madden. I'm looking into using some of the sliders schemes I've seen set up by people to get more realistic stats.
    Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-27-2009, 01:18 PM.
    The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.
    Tags: None
    • fjccommish
      Banned
      • Oct 2008
      • 635
      #2
      I don't think the clock settings (such as Q length or runoff) make any difference in simulated games.

        Comment

        • Dienekes
          Pro
          • Aug 2004
          • 551
          #3
          Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

          Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...

            Comment

            • alifeincomplete
              I bent my Wookiee!
              • Jul 2008
              • 1255
              #4
              Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

              Originally posted by Dienekes
              Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...
              Oh, I intend to keep at it. My only problem will be this upcoming weekend because I'm going to be out of town for three days. I haven't decided whether or not to sim the games before I leave or after the fact and do retrospective predictions. Doing the sims after I get back on Sunday night would be beneficial because I may not catch all of the last-minute inactives if I sim it before hand.

              It went 10-6 in its first week so I'm hoping to at least get that for Week 2.
              The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                Comment

                • CMH
                  Making you famous
                  • Oct 2002
                  • 26203
                  #5
                  Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                  Are you simming or CPU-vs.-CPU?
                  "It may well be that we spectators, who are not divinely gifted as athletes, are the only ones able to truly see, articulate and animate the experience of the gift we are denied. And that those who receive and act out the gift of athletic genius must, perforce, be blind and dumb about it -- and not because blindness and dumbness are the price of the gift, but because they are its essence." - David Foster Wallace

                  "You'll not find more penny-wise/pound-foolish behavior than in Major League Baseball." - Rob Neyer

                    Comment

                    • alifeincomplete
                      I bent my Wookiee!
                      • Jul 2008
                      • 1255
                      #6
                      Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                      Simming each game. I tried to go CPU v CPU and let it play out while I did other things, but the game I tested that for (Buffalo/New England) was absurd--the Patriots won 98-6. Any suggestions on how to prevent that?
                      The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                        Comment

                        • alifeincomplete
                          I bent my Wookiee!
                          • Jul 2008
                          • 1255
                          #7
                          Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                          Week 2
                          Prediction results: 9-7
                          Most accurate prediction: Carolina/Atlanta (3 pt difference)

                          Madden: Oakland 23, Kansas City 18
                          Reality: Oakland 13, Kansas City 10
                          CORRECT!

                          Madden: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 28
                          Reality: Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17
                          CORRECT!

                          Madden: Minnesota 20, Detroit 13
                          Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13<o></o>
                          CORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 10
                          Reality: Cincinnati 31, Green Bay 24<o></o>
                          INCORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7
                          Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31<o></o>
                          INCORRECT!<o></o><o></o>
                          Madden: Washington 28, St Louis 21
                          Reality: Washington 9, St Louis 7<o></o>
                          CORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Atlanta 26, Carolina 21
                          Reality: Atlanta 28, Carolina 20<o></o>
                          CORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: New England 20, New York Jets 13
                          Reality: New York Jets 16, New England 9<o></o>
                          INCORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: New Orleans 41, Philadelphia 24
                          Reality: New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22<o></o>
                          CORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: San Francisco 24, Seattle 14
                          Reality: San Francisco 23, Seattle 10<o></o>
                          CORRECT<o></o>!
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Tampa Bay 10, Buffalo 3
                          Reality: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20<o></o>
                          INCORRECT!

                          Madden: Denver 31, Cleveland 28
                          Reality: Denver 27, Cleveland 6<o></o>
                          CORRECT!
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: San Diego 21, Baltimore 10
                          Reality: Baltimore 31, San Diego 26
                          INCORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 13
                          Reality: Chicago 17, Pittsburgh 14
                          INCORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Dallas 30, New York Giants 10
                          Reality: New York Giants 33, Dallas 31<o></o>
                          INCORRECT!<o></o>
                          <o></o>
                          Madden: Indianapolis 33, Miami 13
                          Reality:<o> Indianapolis 27, Miami 23
                          </o>                          CORRECT!<o></o>
                          Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-22-2009, 10:20 AM.
                          The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                            Comment

                            • MatrixTN
                              MVP
                              • Mar 2009
                              • 1857
                              #8
                              Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                              Originally posted by alifeincomplete
                              Madden: Minnesota 10, Detroit 13
                              Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13<o></o>[/FONT]
                              Typo or oversight? Shouldn't this be wrong?

                                Comment

                                • fjccommish
                                  Banned
                                  • Oct 2008
                                  • 635
                                  #9
                                  Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                  You could go about .500 just picking winners at random. Madden got some scores near right, but got some scores way wrong.

                                    Comment

                                    • alifeincomplete
                                      I bent my Wookiee!
                                      • Jul 2008
                                      • 1255
                                      #10
                                      Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                      Originally posted by MatrixTN
                                      Typo or oversight? Shouldn't this be wrong?
                                      Thanks for catching that; it was a typo. Minnesota won that game 20-13 in the sim.
                                      The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                                        Comment

                                        • MatrixTN
                                          MVP
                                          • Mar 2009
                                          • 1857
                                          #11
                                          Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                          Originally posted by alifeincomplete
                                          <o></o>
                                          Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7
                                          Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31<o></o>
                                          Funny coincidence: doing a franchise as the Bengals and this game came out 34-31 in Houston's favor, but decided in OT! Also, I fan drafted but let the comp pick (Tom Brady's my QB).

                                          Also, you forgot to note that Ten/Pit (week 1) was OT.

                                            Comment

                                            • alifeincomplete
                                              I bent my Wookiee!
                                              • Jul 2008
                                              • 1255
                                              #12
                                              Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                              Week 3
                                              Prediction results: 11-5
                                              Most accurate prediction: Eagles/Chiefs (4 point difference)

                                              Madden: Patriots 35, Falcons 20
                                              Reality: Patriots 26, Falcons 10
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Packers 36, Rams 24
                                              Reality: Packers 36, Rams 17
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Texans 21, Jaguars 17
                                              Reality: Jaguars 31, Texans 24
                                              INCORRECT!

                                              Madden: Giants 37, Buccaneers 13
                                              Reality:                                               Giants 24, Buccaneers 0
                                              CORRECT!

                                               Madden: Ravens 20, Browns 10
                                              Reality: Ravens 34, Browns 3
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Eagles 35, Chiefs 17
                                              Reality:                                               Eagles 34, Chiefs 14
                                              CORRECT!

                                               Madden: Vikings 20, 49ers 10
                                              Reality: Vikings 27, 49ers 24
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Redskins 27, Lions 10
                                              Reality: Lions 19, Redskins 14
                                              INCORRECT!

                                              Madden: Titans 14, Jets 7
                                              Reality: Jets 24, Titans 17
                                              INCORRECT!

                                              Madden: Saints 21, Bills 7
                                              Reality:                                               Saints 27, Bills 7
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Bears 20, Seahawks 3
                                              Reality: Bears 25, Seahawks 19
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Broncos 18, Raiders 15
                                              Reality: Broncos 23, Raiders 3
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Steelers 37, Bengals 14
                                              Reality: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
                                              INCORRECT!

                                              Madden: Chargers 36, Dolphins 14
                                              Reality: Chargers 23, Dolphins 13
                                              CORRECT!

                                              Madden: Cardinals 37, Colts 17
                                              Reality:                                               Colts 31, Cardinals 10
                                              INCORRECT!

                                              Madden: Cowboys 17, Panthers 10
                                              Reality: Cowboys 21, Panthers 7
                                              CORRECT!
                                              ___
                                              Personal note: I have to say that Madden surprised me this time around. I disagree with quite a few of the picks and nearly all the scores. We'll see how this goes this week, but I'd be surprised if this is better than .500 this week. Some roster notes: I inactivated Welker for the ATL/NE game and let Moss play. To handle the Kolb/Vick game, I put simmed the first half with Kolb and put Vick in during the second half to make sure that they both played. I couldn't think of a better solution and (judging by today's game so far), it would've been a pain to sub them in on different plays for each series.
                                              Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-28-2009, 11:16 PM.
                                              The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                                                Comment

                                                • alifeincomplete
                                                  I bent my Wookiee!
                                                  • Jul 2008
                                                  • 1255
                                                  #13
                                                  Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                                  Well, the game is 10-4 right now with two games left; hoping we can at least go 11-5 this week as the Cards are going to need a heckuva second half to rebound in this game right now.
                                                  The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                                                    Comment

                                                    • MatrixTN
                                                      MVP
                                                      • Mar 2009
                                                      • 1857
                                                      #14
                                                      Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                                      Looking good so far.

                                                        Comment

                                                        • alifeincomplete
                                                          I bent my Wookiee!
                                                          • Jul 2008
                                                          • 1255
                                                          #15
                                                          Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus)

                                                          Week 4
                                                          Prediction results: 12-2
                                                          Most accurate prediction: Steelers/Chargers (2 pt difference)

                                                          Madden: Patriots 24, Ravens 16
                                                          Reality: Patriots 27, Ravens 21
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Redskins 31, Buccaneers 6
                                                          Reality: Redskins 16, Buccaneers 13
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Jaguars 18, Titans 16
                                                          Reality: Jaguars 37, Titans 17
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Texans 30, Raiders 20
                                                          Reality:                                                           Texans 29, Raiders 6
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Bears 20, Lions 17 (OT)
                                                          Reality: Bears 48, Lions 24
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Bengals 28, Browns 23
                                                          Reality: Bengals 23, Browns 20 (OT)
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Colts 29, Seahawks 3
                                                          Reality: Colts 34, Seahawks 17
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                           Madden: Giants 14, Chiefs 10
                                                          Reality: Giants 27, Chiefs 16
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Jets 24, Saints 17
                                                          Reality: Saints 24, Jets 10
                                                          INCORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Bills 29, Dolphins 9
                                                          Reality: Dolphins 38, Bills 10
                                                          INCORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Broncos 27, Cowboys 26
                                                          Reality: Broncos 17, Cowboys 10
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: 49ers 28, Rams 9
                                                          Reality: 49ers 35, Rams 0
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Steelers 38, Chargers 26
                                                          Reality: Steelers 38, Chargers 28
                                                          CORRECT!

                                                          Madden: Vikings 28, Packers 0
                                                          Reality: Vikings 30, Packers 23
                                                          CORRECT!
                                                          Last edited by alifeincomplete; 10-05-2009, 11:34 PM.
                                                          The Last of Us is the Citizen Kane of video-games. It is better than every game that has ever come before it, and is the new benchmark for all games to follow. It is nothing short of a work of art.

                                                            Comment

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