Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

[jaiman]

What do you guys think? Is he for real? Is this just a lucky year? Do you think the Jays should keep him or trade him? Where would he fit best?

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Probably both.

There's no way he's going to sustain that HR/FB ratio, but the batted ball numbers do show that he's hitting significantly less grounders and significantly more flyballs compared to 2009. Hitting that many flyballs will ensure that he'll continue to hit the longball even as his HR/FB ratio drops, just not at his current rate.

His drop in GB% is the seventh biggest year-to-year drop in the last decade. That's something I chalk to legit improvement.

[jth1331]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Its improvement, but come on, a guy suddenly at the age of 29, who'll turn 30 in October, is going to turn it on and crank out 45+ homeruns every year.
This year will be an outlier, where he is projected to hit 48 homeruns. Best thing is probably the fact he is getting on base more, taking more walks. Heck, he could be a Sammy Sosa case who I'd say really became that premier, elite status player at the age of 30 and then produced 5 years of elite play.
So maybe Bautista has finally made it click and he'll be an elite homerun threat, or maybe he's a one hit wonder like we've seen in the past. Like Richard Hidalgo, Brady Anderson, Bobby Higginson, Terrence Long.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Best thing is probably the fact he is getting on base more, taking more walks.

2009 BB%: 13.9%
2010 BB%: 13.6%

The best thing is the fact that he leads MLB in HRs despite being a lead-off hitter with marginal power for much of his career.

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

This is the biggest discussion on Toronto sports radio right now. There's legit arguments on both sides of the coin. I almost want to say that this is a true blossoming but then it's just so sudden. Then again, he did hit 10 HRs in September last year. It's most likely going to be his career year but I do think he'll settle into a nice 20-25 HR pace for the next couple years. The question is, is it worth it to keep him because by the time the Jays are a true contender he may not be the bat that he was the previous 3 years.

I say strike while the iron is hot, if the Jays get an amazing deal offered to them make it without hesitation. This is one of those situations where it's better to err on the side of caution then to fall in love with a guy.

[DrJones]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

The question is, is it worth it to keep him because by the time the Jays are a true contender

...either hell will have frozen over, or MLB will have realigned/changed their postseason format. I'm not holding my breath for either.

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

...either hell will have frozen over, or MLB will have realigned/changed their postseason format. I'm not holding my breath for either.

Anthopoulos wants the team to be younger and more athletic which is a model that the Rays have built themselves off of. It's not entirely impossible for the Jays to be contenders down the road if there's a good foundation then I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts that Big Red will open up the wallet to get big name guys in a Jays uniform.

[jth1331]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

2009 BB%: 13.9%
2010 BB%: 13.6%

The best thing is the fact that he leads MLB in HRs despite being a lead-off hitter with marginal power for much of his career.

I'm sort of taking it to the tune of his whole career here buddy, and his walks have increased each year, leading to getting on base more, making him a more effective player.

Lead off hitter? Was he really a lead off hitter? I didn't think he was with the Pirates and Jays, but if he was, he's the worst leadoff hitter imaginal right now for me.

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Lead off hitter? Was he really a lead off hitter? I didn't think he was with the Pirates and Jays, but if he was, he's the worst leadoff hitter imaginal right now for me.

Last year he was down in the lineup. This year because Scutaro is gone they started him out at leadoff. It CLEARLY wasn't working and that's why the Jays got Fred Lewis. So even Toronto management saw Bautista as a terrible lead-off guy.

I don't know about his time in Pittsburgh though.

[snepp]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

He's been all over the place, but has spent the 2nd most amount of time leading off.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...reer&t=b#lineu

[DrJones]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Anthopoulos wants the team to be younger and more athletic which is a model that the Rays have built themselves off of.

The Rays didn't accomplish this by just saying as much. They accomplished this by being baseball's worst team over a decade AND being knowledgeable/lucky enough to make those picks count. Assuming the Jays' scouting/development is equal to that of Tampa's (hmmm), and Toronto immediately embarks on a 10-year period of bottom-dwelling so that they can accumulate a huge cache of blue-chip prospects...then sure, they'll briefly be able to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in a decade or so from now. I'll check back in 2020 to see how that's working out for them.

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

The Rays didn't accomplish this by just saying as much. They accomplished this by being baseball's worst team over a decade AND being knowledgeable/lucky enough to make those picks count. Assuming the Jays' scouting/development is equal to that of Tampa's (hmmm), and Toronto immediately embarks on a 10-year period of bottom-dwelling so that they can accumulate a huge cache of blue-chip prospects...then sure, they'll briefly be able to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in a decade or so from now. I'll check back in 2020 to see how that's working out for them.

Well they already have the pitching for the most part. It's now the (relatively) easy part of getting good young position players. I'm not saying it's going to be easy but it's not as much of an impossibility as you make it seem.

I guess we'll agree to disagree but if we're both around here come 2012-13 time then we'll see how things are going.

[rsox]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

This year: Rake. Overall: Fake. Every player has one career year where everything just clicks for them.

It doesn't hurt that most of his HR's have come hitting 3rd ahead of Vernon Wells who has had a bit of a resurgence this season.

[jaiman]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Definitely going to be a tough decision. One that will be made shortly. Unless they wait until the end of the year, or next year which is taking a chance on the rake or fake concept. I don't know if I'd want to be AA right now making this decision. I agree about striking while the iron is hot, but I also agree that he has been so much more than just the guy who has hit 30 homers so far. A great glove and arm in the field. A guy who seems to have taken over some of the leadership role in the clubhouse (remember, no matter how young you want your team to be, those older leaders are always as important) and most importantly, a team player who seems to enjoy playing in Toronto.

I don't know. I'm a die hard Jays fan and I'm torn. I guess it'll come down to what kind of offers the Jays receive over the next couple of days. My gut is telling me that this guy should stick around. I will be at the games this weekend, so we'll see what kind of line-up gets put on the field come Saturday! Should be interesting.

[SlimKibbles]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Its improvement, but come on, a guy suddenly at the age of 29, who'll turn 30 in October, is going to turn it on and crank out 45+ homeruns every year.
This year will be an outlier, where he is projected to hit 48 homeruns. Best thing is probably the fact he is getting on base more, taking more walks. Heck, he could be a Sammy Sosa case who I'd say really became that premier, elite status player at the age of 30 and then produced 5 years of elite play.
So maybe Bautista has finally made it click and he'll be an elite homerun threat, or maybe he's a one hit wonder like we've seen in the past. Like Richard Hidalgo, Brady Anderson, Bobby Higginson, Terrence Long.

WTF? How is he in the same category as those other three?

Anyway, Brady Anderson is the guy who immediately comes to my mind each time I hear Bautista hit a HR. We'll see what happens but I think this season is an outlier for him.