Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotaku)

[Steve_OS]

Kotaku's Owen Good explains why the NFL’s labor strife might be the best thing that happened to Madden.

"It appears to be a win-win: EA Sports gets cash relief in a year when it's telling investors that its flagship title may take a dive at the cash register because of the league's overall woes. The NFL can kick the can down the road another year and negotiate this license when its product is a lot stronger.

But when the league does sit down with EA Sports, or anyone else, it still may not like what it hears."

[pietasterp]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

The last point in the article is, I think, the most salient - I'm 100% sure that the NFL did not realize they were making the deal exclusive into perpetuity (and putting EA completely in the driver's seat for the forseeable future) when they originally agreed to this deal at the end of 2004. There will be no bidders other than EA left in 2012, or 2013, or whenever the license technically expires. EA holds all the cards, as they're the only ones willing to fork over major cash for the exclusive license given that they have an established franchise and sizable investment with serious pop culture (and monetary) cache that is a proven revenue stream. Everyone else has already been shut out by what will then be nearly a decade of inactivity. No one's going to spend $300 million on the hopes of growing a new football IP from the ground up. Game over.

What I find interesting (and slightly irritating, for some reason) is that people are just now seeing this in the major gaming media outlets. I believe we had this exact point nailed to a "T" way back in 2004 in the original "EA Gets Exclusive NFL License" thread - which actually would be interesting to dig up and see how dead-on the OS readers were at that time. I mean, how is it possible that we all saw this back then (or some of us, anyway) and it's only now becoming apparent to everyone else? Is the videogame biz still that underground/elusive to everyone else that they couldn't see what even casual sports gamers knew 7 years ago? It was obvious then, as it is now, that when that deal was made it would be the end of any non-Madden game for the rest of the modern age of videogaming. Welcome to the party, kotaku....

[thundergatti]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

The last point in the article is, I think, the most salient - I'm 100% sure that the NFL did not realize they were making the deal exclusive into perpetuity (and putting EA completely in the driver's seat for the forseeable future) when they originally agreed to this deal at the end of 2004. There will be no bidders other than EA left in 2012, or 2013, or whenever the license technically expires. EA holds all the cards, as they're the only ones willing to fork over major cash for the exclusive license given that they have an established franchise and sizable investment with serious pop culture (and monetary) cache that is a proven revenue stream. Everyone else has already been shut out by what will then be nearly a decade of inactivity. No one's going to spend $300 million on the hopes of growing a new football IP from the ground up. Game over.

What I find interesting (and slightly irritating, for some reason) is that people are just now seeing this in the major gaming media outlets. I believe we had this exact point nailed to a "T" way back in 2004 in the original "EA Gets Exclusive NFL License" thread - which actually would be interesting to dig up and see how dead-on the OS readers were at that time. I mean, how is it possible that we all saw this back then (or some of us, anyway) and it's only now becoming apparent to everyone else? Is the videogame biz still that underground/elusive to everyone else that they couldn't see what even casual sports gamers knew 7 years ago? It was obvious then, as it is now, that when that deal was made it would be the end of any non-Madden game for the rest of the modern age of videogaming. Welcome to the party, kotaku....

Enjoyed your post.

I just have to question the assumption you made that no one else would be willing to invest in the license. Its the National Football League, and the game has demonstrated its profitability over time.

[statum71]

This is EXACTLY why I voted no in the front page poll.

I don't see NFL 2K coming back.

[permanent1]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Considering 2K already approached the NFL recently prior to this exension i would not be so sure about that.

[bonafied0034]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Not necessarily on topic here, but if the current CBA expires and the NFLPA decertifies (like they claim they will do), doesn't that mean that EA will not be able to include those players in the game unless they pay them each individually (since they couldn't give the union one lump sum to distribute)? Would EA fork out that cash to each individual player?

If that is the case, then that, to me, is why this might be the best thing to happen. In my opinion, that would cause people to lose interest in Madden. After all, APF2k8 did not sell as well because it did not have current NFL players in the game. Would this then cause 2k sports to release another APF game to compete with a no-NFL player Madden? Again, this all depends on if the above assumption is true.

[Nab_Impervious_XII]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

This is EXACTLY why I voted no in the front page poll.

I don't see NFL 2K coming back.

The article doesn't say NFL 2k won't come back though. It's saying it won't come back in the PS3 era (which is scheduled to end around 2013-2014). Which is true. No arguing against that.

Overall, it's an article filled with bad news for the immediate future, but a potential silver lining scenario for the new console generation era. Since both 2k and EA have to essentially reset their developmental cycles to meet the demands of the new consoles in 2014, they will be able to more fairly compete for the license again.

At that point, it will be up to 2k if it wants to cough out the big bucks to potentially share dual-exclusivity with EA.

[unfriendlyghst]

Wow just wow. We have an entire generation of gamers that has no idea of what a half time show or draft class update looks like. Its sad that so many kids are growing up with Madden teaching them about football fundamentals that don't exist.

[TheCreep]

The only thing I'm salivating about now is the 30 million dollar break the NFL gave EA this year. Split it. Thats an extra 15 million towards development cost for Madden and NCAA. Lets see what we get this year.

[shyvoodoo]

Did I read that right???
EA paid 300 million for the license??
Whoa!!! Have they even made that back from the sales of Madden??

The author could be on to something here.. Could EA say to the NFL no one else is gonna pay you what we paid you and could get the next contract at a HUGE discount!!
Some one said that T2 met with the NFL already but wonder if the NFL told them the price tag and they said forget about it...

Sony already said they are going with a 10 YEAR SHELF LIFE with the PS3, which puts PS4 out by 2016, two years after the license ends(?).. Systems are getting better they are not taking a step backwards and the next consoles are gonna be just as expensive to develop for so what gives??... hell the PS3 hasnt even reached its full potential and we STILL have not seen a football game reach the potential that Baseball and Basketball has, so what would a next gen system do for a game?? EA cant even do THIS GEN right??

Other factors to think about:
1. Will Microsoft and Nintendo go with Blu Ray as their next gen medium?? If not then what?? It better be at least better or on par with Blu ray or gaming is gonna head for another crash because of stagnation and lack of innovation.. Video Games have maxed out the DVD media, are those companies more forward thinking now?? BUT if you gonna go with Blu Ray as the medium then SONY is gonna get paid, since they and a few other companies hold the patents to the tech.. Maybe Microsoft will resurrect HD-DVD?? Maybe not... Stay tuned..

I always considered Kotaku as an "entertainment" site so them showing up to the game in the 5th inning is not surprising...

[shyvoodoo]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

The only thing I'm salivating about now is the 30 million dollar break the NFL gave EA this year. Split it. Thats an extra 15 million towards development cost for Madden and NCAA. Lets see what we get this year.

Nothing. The teams would get bigger BONUSES this year.. Sorry.

ben
voodoo

[GiantBlue76]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Nothing. The teams would get bigger BONUSES this year.. Sorry.

ben
voodoo

Yeah, Creep. Sorry to burst your bubble, but EA's investment in Madden is the cash it shells out for the exclusive. They don't invest in the game much at all as the final product over the last 6 years has shown. Why would they? When you know you're the only game in town, it makes no sense from a business standpoint to push the envelope. That's why you are seeing all of the other sports games go far beyond what we've seen from Madden.

[dickey1331]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Yeah, Creep. Sorry to burst your bubble, but EA's investment in Madden is the cash it shells out for the exclusive. They don't invest in the game much at all as the final product over the last 6 years has shown. Why would they? When you know you're the only game in town, it makes no sense from a business standpoint to push the envelope. That's why you are seeing all of the other sports games go far beyond what we've seen from Madden.

Completion doesn’t always make anything better. What about NBA Live/Elite? Gone. Or NHL 2K? 2011 version didn’t come out for PS3/Xbox 360. Most PS3 users buy The show or Xbox users buy a PS3 so they don’t have to play MLB 2K. Like I said competition doesn’t mean anything.

[mestevo]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

Yeah, Creep. Sorry to burst your bubble, but EA's investment in Madden is the cash it shells out for the exclusive. They don't invest in the game much at all as the final product over the last 6 years has shown. Why would they? When you know you're the only game in town, it makes no sense from a business standpoint to push the envelope. That's why you are seeing all of the other sports games go far beyond what we've seen from Madden.

I am not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic here? While the license is surely a significant portion of the overall cost of the game, you do realize that almost all of the play movement is derived from motion capture (I think this year they were able to build a 40yd dash in the studio for the new locomotion stuff?) rather than animators. You haven't seen any of the setups they put together at a couple of the big events to get player/coach photos/3d scans? Have you ever seen a Madden commercial? All of these things are just small parts of the many things that go into Madden... This is not a cheap or simple game to make or there would be many unlicensed games on the market competing.

I think the best point this article made that hasn't been covered in other threads here already is why this extension is so valuable to the NFL. Worst case there's no NFL next season. The value of the license is greatly diminished in the face of a post-lockout NFL world. It would be harder to demand as much either for an exclusive or non-exclusive license. This is a good point and I don't think it was brought up in the other thread about the extension.

Now worst case we miss or have a shortened season, things recover, and the NFL is likely in a stronger position than it would have been to command a renewal of it's current or similar licensing arrangement as long as EA is still willing to go along. As much speculation and wishful thinking to the contrary about them bowing out, I doubt they'll spare much expense to ensure they remain the lone official game of the NFL... would love to see a link or story that has anything substantiated that EA is wavering or would consider dropping it.

[shyvoodoo]

Re: Why the NFL’s Labor Strife Might Be the Best Thing That Happened to Madden (Kotak

I am not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic here? While the license is surely a significant portion of the overall cost of the game, you do realize that almost all of the play movement is derived from motion capture (I think this year they were able to build a 40yd dash in the studio for the new locomotion stuff?) rather than animators. You haven't seen any of the setups they put together at a couple of the big events to get player/coach photos/3d scans? Have you ever seen a Madden commercial? All of these things are just small parts of the many things that go into Madden... This is not a cheap or simple game to make or there would be many unlicensed games on the market competing.

I think the best point this article made that hasn't been covered in other threads here already is why this extension is so valuable to the NFL. Worst case there's no NFL next season. The value of the license is greatly diminished in the face of a post-lockout NFL world. It would be harder to demand as much either for an exclusive or non-exclusive license. This is a good point and I don't think it was brought up in the other thread about the extension.

Now worst case we miss or have a shortened season, things recover, and the NFL is likely in a stronger position than it would have been to command a renewal of it's current or similar licensing arrangement as long as EA is still willing to go along. As much speculation and wishful thinking to the contrary about them bowing out, I doubt they'll spare much expense to ensure they remain the lone official game of the NFL... would love to see a link or story that has anything substantiated that EA is wavering or would consider dropping it.

I understand what you're saying but EA has budgets for that stuff already.. In 2010 they are JUST getting around to building a mo cap studio?? Mo cap has been around since the 90s so if anything they upgraded facilities..

I agree with most of your post but you have to wonder if EA is gonna start playing hardball with the NFL once this license ends. If the NFL values the Madden Brand so much so to call it pretty much a NFL property, EA could use that as leverage to get a much better deal EVEN going as far as to threaten not to make another Madden until they do..

OK I'm reaching here because thats like saying KFC threatening not to make anymore chicken if chicken prices dont come down BUT maybe EA KNOWS no one else in the industry has the cash to fork over for the license in the long run...

I'm a currency trader, and one thing that my trading mentor told me was "You concentrate on one market to learn your way around, but if you want to be successful, you have to diversify you trading portfolio." Some one in the Ivory towers of the NFL should have been smart enough to say "In order to maximize our profit margin in this area, we have to have two of "something"... More Revenue for the NFL plus you would most likely have two successful games, whats more, your getting money from two different parties..

If the NFL brass was really smart they could have gotten a lot more than 300 mill from the license just by granting one or two more?? Advertising, dev cost, print and tv.. all the devs responsibility.. They could have been getting money from Microsoft, EA, T2, even MORE money from SONY since they are one of their top 3 advertisers.. I don't understand why would you LIMIT you revenue growth because of a NAME OF A HEAD COACH??

Now I'm ramblin but one more thing, do you think the PLAYERS themselves are probably disappointed?? they play games too and you heard Lavar Arrington say earlier this week how much he misses NFL 2K.. Hopefully these labor talks would address all this.. stay tuned..

ben
voodoo