Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

[RaychelSnr]

Everyone's favorite video game analysts Michael Pachter is back with a prediction for Madden this season:

"Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, believes the longer the lockout drags on, the more likely it is that NFL fans will become alienated. He said while Madden is a great experience for gamers, its sales are definitely correlated to the underlying popularity of the NFL, so if the popularity of the NFL suffers, it’s likely that sales of Madden will suffer.

“It’s still too early to call, since the lockout is happening in March and Madden launches in August,” said Pachter. “That’s a lot of time to fix things, although most commentators don’t sound very optimistic. My guess is that a complete cancellation of the NFL season would cost Madden around 50 percent of sales, and a delay of the season would be far less impactful. If the season is only delayed a week or two and fans aren’t alienated, there would be only a very small impact; if delayed through Thanksgiving (when the holiday selling season begins in earnest), the impact would be far greater.”

I don't want to speculate on the exact amount, but Pachter would be close to right if the entire season is cancelled. EA is already planning on Madden not being a big seller this year with their forward forecasts and past performances of games under strikes and lockouts don't give one much hope for Madden to be a sales hoss this season.

[wallofhate]

Im no expert but I feel a 50% cut in profits seems a lil bit much. I would guess more of the realm of 25% to 35%. There are drones of people who just purchase the game just strictly of the name that dobt even really watch or play football much. Then you have people who want to fill the gap left with the missing "real" games. And lastly people such as myself who just cant get enough football irregardless of the situation. College football and the ncaa game would see substantial gains from the lockout though.

[gbombbay]

That s*** looks terrible. Is that a pic of graphics from the last Madden "sarcasm"? Madden (should) have a drop in sales on the quality of product it puts out every year all on its own. It's not like what we see on Sunday is even close to being portrayed in this title anyway. So never-mind if the season is canceled. Hurts me to say as a football fan first, but this (the lockout) may just be a blessing in disguise, as far as video game football goes.

[jyoung]

According to vgchartz:

NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million sales
NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million sales

So PS1 NBA Live sales dropped 22% the year of the lockout.

I think a 20% sales drop is a much more realistic expectation for Madden.

[1WEiRDguy]

I would love to see how this would do with no nflpa after a lot of people bashed (and didnt support) backbreaker and APK2k8 with no current nflpa or nfl association for that matter...this takes me back to madden 64...most of the visitors on this site are probably too young to remember that...lol

[jyoung]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

Yeah all the Maddens up until Madden 95 didn't have the NFLPA license, so the players were just numbered instead of named.

Madden 64 (the N64 equivalent of Madden 98) actually had the NFLPA license, but not the NFL team license.

[The GIGGAS]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

According to vgchartz:

NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million sales
NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million sales

So PS1 NBA Live sales dropped 22% the year of the lockout.

I think a 20% sales drop is a much more realistic expectation for Madden.

I feel that's a better approximation as well.

[canes21]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

I actually think sales might increase. More people will be craving the NFL and Madden will be the only thing to offer it to them. Or they can keep Madden 11 and sim one year and play what would be the season they're missing out on.

I need to think this through.

[coogrfan]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

This is a moot point-the NFL season will start on time, take it to the bank. Much ado about nothing, imo.

[daslyvillian]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

So if there is not NFLPA any more does any football game need anyother type of license to put the actual players in the game? Example 2K12 with real players and fake teams!

[SageInfinite]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

This would be the only good thing about an NFL lockout, lol.

[coogrfan]

Re: Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

So if there is not NFLPA any more does any football game need anyother type of license to put the actual players in the game? Example 2K12 with real players and fake teams!

As I understand it VC would have to negotiate individual deals with each player (as they did with the legends in APF). Needless to say, VC won't be doing that.

[buckeyesfan27]

i am not buying madden this year. 1 there are to manny turnovers which is scripted. 2 NCAA is a way better game then madden any day of the week. and NCAA is not scripted like madden. and NCAA 12 is just awesome.

[stlstudios189]

I am so over with this whole lockout crap. The NFL will screw up major if the season is even delayed. They make 9 BILLION a year and cant divide it up give me a freaking break. If the season is delayed I will NEVER pay $65 to watch them play again. As for this season screw them I am not getting Madden for the 1st time since 1998 (I bought Gameday) NCAA football will be my new game this year.

[MelR2000]

I am not certain, but don't most of Madden sales come from the first week or so of release. That is mid August before the regular season even starts. If Madden could accurately emmulate football in strategy, physics, presentation, and fun factor, it would sell like crazy. Madden just hasn't been any good for a decade. That is what has been killing the Madden franchise, not a bunch of crybaby millionares and billionares. My 2 cents.