Coach Run/Pass Balance

**bhbdawg** · 07-03-2011, 08:57 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

If there's any interest, I'll post others' ratios...

**adamcsay** · 07-03-2011, 09:30 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

not to discredit your hard work because i know it's appreciated but there is actually a spreadsheet showing all this info and more.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ariz5WETeaOwdEVubHkwNFBCMDktdlkwQW1NLTVnWlE&hl=en_US&authkey=CLqZ_vYK#gid=0

credit goes to solidice over at the gaming tailgate.

**bhbdawg** · 07-03-2011, 09:56 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

That's awesome, and very impressive, but the downside is they use all plays, which can distort the true intentions of the coach, because it includes 3rd down decisions, which need context.

Also, it's affected by defense - if a team's defense stinks, even if their preference is to run the ball, they'll find themselves passing a lot to try and keep up.

Some of their stats seem to way pretty far off. Eastern Michigan had 511 rush attempts to only 282 passing last year, but they have EMU's pass frequency at 64%. David Cutcliffe of Duke prefers to run the ball more than they throw, but they sometimes don't have the luxury thanks to their defense.

The spreadsheet listed Duke at 44% rushing & 56% passing. But on 1st downs, it's actually reversed - Duke ran the ball 56% of the time. And Duke would probably continue to run 56% of the time IF they could do it well.

I suppose my question is, shouldn't the run/pass ratio be an ideal hypothetical? As in, if this coach has the right personnel and a good defense, what would his ratio be? That's how I've always taken it.

Thanks for the link, though. They've done a lot of work on a lot of different things, and it's very impressive. I just think their methodology on the pass/rush %'s was a little lazy (and that's understandable when you're trying to present many different bits of information) and too context-based.

**atlplayboy23** · 07-03-2011, 10:13 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Hey man post what you have it always good to have multiple ideas on this situation and the community can choose what is better.

**bhbdawg** · 07-03-2011, 10:15 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

I'll just have to go conference by conference.

Big 10 coming next...

**ActLikeYouCrow** · 07-03-2011, 10:18 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

for sim purposes the overall % has been the best way in the past. a 1st down based balance system might work better in games

**bhbdawg** · 07-03-2011, 10:54 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

B10:

Jim Bollman, OSU - 66% run, 34% pass
Paul Chryst, UW - 72% run, 28% pass
Galen Hall, PSU - 56% run, 44% pass
Paul Petrino, Illinois - 78% run, 22% pass
Gary Nord, Purdue - 63% run, 37% pass
Kevin Wilson, IU* - 52% run, 48% pass
Tim Beck, Nebraska** - 81% run, 19% pass
Dan Roushar, MSU*** - 64% run, 36% pass
Ken O'Keefe, Iowa - 62% run, 38% pass
Mike McCall, NU - 62% run, 38% pass
Al Borges, Mich - 62% run, 38% pass
Matt Limegrover - Minn - 73% run, 27% pass

*Indiana's new co-OC's don't have very much experience, and there's a chance Wilson will still call plays. At the very least, it should reflect his style of offense, so I'm using his Oklahoma stats.

**No idea on Beck, as it's his first year, but he worked under Shawn Watson, so the offense will probably be pretty similar, so I'm using Shawn Watson's #'s.

***MSU's OC left of his own accord and was replaced from within, so I'm expecting more of the same. Using Don Treadwell's '10 stats here.

I tested some of these against what I considered their best games of last year, to see if they jived with what the coaches would do when everything was like clockwork:

- Chryst, who I have at 72/28, was 73/27 vs. Northwestern and 69/31 against Indiana.

- Bollman, who I have at 66/34, was 66/34 against Purdue and 64/36 against Minnesota.

- Hall, who I have at 56/44, was 56/44 against Indiana, but also had more variance than most - throwing a lot against Florida & running a lot against Temple - presumably because they didn't have as many easy wins as some other teams.

- Petrino (78/22) was 73/27 against Penn State and a whopping 83/17 against Indiana.

- Nord (63/37) had no easy games to even test...

- Wilson (52/48) was 49/51 vs. Florida State, 60/40 vs. Iowa St.

- Nebraska (81/19) was 83/17 vs. Washington and 81/19 vs. Kansas State last year.

- MSU (64/36) was 61/39 vs. Wisconsin, 62/38 vs. Michigan.

- O'Keefe (62/38) was 60/40 vs. Ball State.

- McCall (62/38) was 58/42 vs. Rice and 65/35 vs. Illinois St.

- Borges (62/38) was 63/37 vs. UNLV and 64/36 vs. Navy.

- Limegrover (73/27) was 68/32 vs. Akron and 71/29 vs. EMU.

So, my hypothesis tests out pretty well - when these offensive coordinators aren't bothered by difficult games and can run the O as they'd like, their overall play selection resembles their 1st down play selection.

**bhbdawg** · 07-03-2011, 10:59 AM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Originally posted by ActLikeYouCrow

for sim purposes the overall % has been the best way in the past. a 1st down based balance system might work better in games

Interesting stuff. I might try to test both out using the SEC & Big 10 on last year's game and see which comes closest to the actual team totals.

**bhbdawg** · 07-04-2011, 10:23 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Ok, using Duke, Nebraska, and Auburn as my guinea pigs, I'm first trying out a sample sim season using my splits*:

*I'm choosing these 3 because they had high variance between the spreadsheet's suggested run/pass rates and mine

Duke @ (55 run / 45 pass)
Auburn @ (75 run / 25 pass)
Nebraska @ (80 run / 20 pass)

First, let's establish the real #'s of 2010:

Duke:
-381 ypg
- 110 ypg rushing (29% of total yards)
- 271 ypg passing (71% of total yards)

Auburn:
- 499 ypg
- 285 ypg rushing (57% of total yards)
- 214 ypg passing (43% of total yards)

Nebraska:
- 398 ypg
- 248 ypg rushing (62% of total yards)
- 151 ypg passing (38% of total yards)

Here were my totals:

Duke:
- 260 ypg
- 81 ypg rushing (31% of total yards)
- 179 ypg passing (69% of total yards)

Auburn:
- 297 ypg
- 175 ypg rushing (59% of total yards)
- 122 ypg passing (41% of total yards)

Nebraska:
- 336 ypg
- 214 ypg rushing (64% of total yards)
- 122 ypg passing (36% of total yards)

So, while the raw stats were a bit off (would quarter length matter in a sim?), you can see that using my run/pass adjustments, the teams still get the yards in the same ratios as they did in reality. All 3 were within 2% of reality.

Now, let's try the same experiment with the #'s I found on that spreadsheet:

Duke (now 45/55):
-316 ypg
- 85 ypg rushing (27% of total yards)
- 231 ypg passing (73% of total yards)

Auburn (now 70/30):
- 320 ypg
- 158 ypg rushing (49% of total yards)
- 162 ypg rushing (51% of total yards)

Nebraska (now 70/30):
- 403 ypg
- 218 ypg rushing (54% of total yards)
- 185 ypg passing (46% of total yards)

So while this set came as close on Duke, it missed the mark on Auburn and Nebraska - missing by 10% and 8% respectively. Why the similarity on Duke and the differences elsewhere?

Well, it sort of backs up what I said earlier about how it doesn't really matter what you WANT to do if you're not any good at it. Whether Duke wants to run or pass early doesn't matter, they're going to wind up passing a lot late in games.

But teams like Auburn and Nebraska, who are good at moving the ball, are more successful and get to self-determine their offense. Using my sliders got the 3 teams closer to their true splits by an average of 4.6 full percentage points per team.

That's enough for me to at least keep going with this, even after taking into account the fact that some other factors always come into play that I can't control (injuries, for example). I figure some of you out there might want to use the same splits, and if you do, I'll be posting them here in the coming days.

**atlplayboy23** · 07-05-2011, 02:07 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Test your finding in a hum game vs the cpu and see how the teams stack. Most people use the spread sheet to make cpu games more realistic and not really sim stats.

**Playmakers** · 07-05-2011, 02:59 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Originally posted by atlplayboy23

Hey man post what you have it always good to have multiple ideas on this situation and the community can choose what is better.

I use this data every year and apply it to the teams.....works out great for me

Home - Phil Steele

http://www.philsteele.com/

[...]Read More... from Home

**huskersbears** · 07-05-2011, 03:15 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

As for Tim Beck at Nebraska, it will not be a similar offense to last year. Think Kansas 2007, which is where Beck worked before Nebraska. No huddle, and there will be more emphasis on the quick passing game than last year. They will still try to establish the ground game more than the pass, much more than Kansas did in '07, but you can't look at last year's Nebraska offense for either the playbook or the run/pass ratio.

**bhbdawg** · 07-05-2011, 03:50 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Originally posted by huskersbears

As for Tim Beck at Nebraska, it will not be a similar offense to last year. Think Kansas 2007, which is where Beck worked before Nebraska. No huddle, and there will be more emphasis on the quick passing game than last year. They will still try to establish the ground game more than the pass, much more than Kansas did in '07, but you can't look at last year's Nebraska offense for either the playbook or the run/pass ratio.

Interesting stuff. Do you have a link to anything where Beck talks about favoring his Kansas roots over Nebraska's recent success?

**bhbdawg** · 07-05-2011, 03:52 PM

Re: Coach Run/Pass Balance

Originally posted by Playmakers

I use this data every year and apply it to the teams.....works out great for me
http://www.philsteele.com/

What data?

Coach Run/Pass Balance

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Coach Run/Pass Balance

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