Probable lineup
1. Everth Cabrera, SS
2. Will Venable, CF
3. Chase Headley, 3B
4. Carlos Quentin, LF
5. Yonder Alonso, 1B
6. Jedd Gyorko, 2B
7. Seth Smith, RF
8. Nick Hundley, C


Bench: C Rene Rivera, OF/1B Kyle Blanks, INF/OF Alexi Amarista, OF Chris Denorfia, OF Reymond Fuentes


Last season, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL runs scored. Petco Park, despite the fences being drawn in, still played as a pronounced pitcher's environment. On that point, it's worth noting that the 2013 Friars ranked a more respectable seventh in runs scored on the road. Also on the positive side, only the Giants achieved the offensive platoon advantage a higher percentage of the time.


What will help the Padres in the season to come is if Headley, the lineup fulcrum, enjoys a bounce-back. His numbers last season certainly weren't bad in context (116 OPS+), but after his stellar 2012, expectations weren't quite met. There's no doubt that the fractured thumb he suffered in spring training dragged down his numbers. He maintained his base-level hitting skills, so now that he's fully healthy the power numbers should return. Speaking of injuries, the Padres put a player on the DL 22 times last season, and 12 of those were position-player transactions. Given better health, the offense should improve in 2014.


Probable rotation
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Andrew Cashner
3. Josh Johnson
4. Tyson Ross
5. Eric Stults


In 2013, the Padres ranked 12th in the NL in rotation ERA and last in rotation WAR. Suffice it to say, you're not going to contend with starting pitching of such a low quality. Moving forward, it's worth noting that a good bit of the damage last season was done by Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard, who combined to allow 144 runs in 195 innings. Volquez is now a Pirate, and Richard opted for free agency after being out-righted to the minors. Moreover, a full season of Kennedy, the breakout potential of Cashner and the upside of Johnson all portend better days. Expect improvement on this front.


X-Factor: Avoiding Injuries
The Padres won’t be able to prove their talent unless their key players can stay on the field. While staying healthy is only part of the issue—many of the team’s oft-injured players have question marks on the field as well—there’s no question various injuries have constantly held the Padres back.


On paper, this team has a decent shot to contend for a playoff spot once the injured players return. Josh Johnson was one of the National League's best pitchers when he was healthy a few years ago, and Cameron Maybin has shown his ability to anchor an outfield in the past, with a solid 4.5 WAR in 2011. In short, the Padres’ chances are questionable even when healthy, but those chances go down to nil if the key injuries keep occurring.

2. Matt Wisler, RHP

A tall, thin pitcher being developed in the Padres system, Ohio native Matt Wisler looks every bit a future rotation anchor. In 20 AA starts last season, Wisler struck out almost exactly one batter per inning while walking barely more than one per game. That's exactly the sort of performance that the control-obsessed Padres love to see, and it's enough to put him in the mix for MLB consideration in mid-to-late 2014. Wisler works a couple of different low-90's fastballs with accuracy to both sides of the plate, but it's his slow curve that turns heads and misses bats most often. How he'll perform against better opponents is an open question, but if he continues his careful, clever approach while trusting his stuff, he should succeed.




3. Max Fried, LHP

Lots of tools and potential. Highly projectable pitcher with long frame and solid present stuff. Shows some feel for pitching at a young age, helping his long term projection. Good athlete with solid fielding ability. Very inexperienced and will have to learn sequencing and how to keep base runners from getting a good read on him. Above-average pickoff move but needs to improve the variety of looks. Potential number two or three starter depending on how much of his projection he fulfills.




4. Hunter Renfroe, OF

A catcher and pitcher in high school, Mississippi native Hunter Renfroe was drafted by the San Diego Padres (13th overall in 2013) as an outfielder, presumably signalling the team's intent to develop him quickly. And that's reasonable, given that his calling card is his offensive ability. The Cal Ripken League MVP in both 2011 and 2012, Renfro hit .395 and .366 in 2011 and 2012, respectively, and made himself known as a major power threat from the right side of the plate. He's an above-average runner, and has a real plus arm (he hit high-90's in his pitching days), which means he should be quite happy in right field soon.

As I've mentioned before, this is my THIRD franchise. I did two others with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and my hometown team, the Houston Astros. Work got in the way and I couldn't keep up with updating. But now I am ready to get back on that horse and do another franchise. Hopefully with some better luck in regards to work. I'm going to start this franchise from day one, which is Opening Day.

If I make it past the first season and into the second, I'm going to do Spring Training for the 2015 season. If you've never seen my past franchise posts, I play every pitch, every strike, every out, and that starts with game one. I'm not even going to think about using quick counts, I enjoy working the counts myself.

I'll also being using PsychoBulk's sliders, on Hall of Fame difficulty. On my ABs I use zone hitting and I use the pitching meter while on the mound. Keeping things OLD SCHOOL!

I sort of went against my poll and chose a National League team, although a lot of people chose the Minnesota Twins in that poll. I've always been a National League "guy". My past two franchise on the OS forums were both from the American League, so this is a change of pace. No DH! As this point in the San Diego Padre's team history, things are interesting. They're rebuilding, but I like their starting rotation core.

Another thing that caught my attention with the Padres is, they've never won the World Series. I'm always a sucker for the underdogs.

The main reason I've done this OP message, etc, is to get you guys, the followers, involved. I'm gonna be controlling everything in the Friar's organization. I'd like those that keep track with this franchise to pitch me some ideas on some moves I should make, if ever the situation stands for it. I do this franchise-gig mostly for interaction with other baseball gurus.

Finally, tomorrow I plan on putting up the schedule for the month of April, and knock out that Opening Day game against the Dodgers. It should be updated tomorrow or at least Thursday morning. I truly do hope that you guys enjoy this thread, as said, I'm open to any and ALL suggestions. I'd like to keep this fresh and not let it go stale.

Thanks, and let the franchise BEGIN!
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