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Start at 3:26 for testing methods
Note: The research here isn't not entirely scientific, nor did I have any intent on making it so.
In NBA 2K15, jump-shooting field goal percentages are wildly inconsistent on difficulties higher than All-Star. There are a variety factors for this, including shot release timings and player ratings. Furthermore, the actual field goal percentages in competitive matches are weighted heavily towards shot release timings in contrast to how open a shooter is, relative to the defense. Player ratings appear to be a crutch for whenever a user attains a good, but not perfect release. Field goal percentages in NBA 2K15’s “Freestyle” practice mode illustrates the discrepancy between release timings, player ratings, and actual field goal pecentages in the NBA.
A sample of five players were chosen (Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Klay Thompson, Brandon Jennings, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) out of the NBA’s top volume/percentage shooters in catch-and-shoot situations this season. None were chosen in any specific order, but at random, outside of the latter two players (though they still qualify with the other players). Each player attempted at least 100 shot attempts, shooting the ball within 2 seconds of catching it without dribbling (per the NBA’s definition of catch-and-shoot).
Kyle Korver’s shooting release is smooth and predictable. Not incredibily fast or slow, however a decent player should be able to attain good shot releases using him. However, no perfect shot release timings were attained within 100 shots. Korver converted 38 shots (38%). He also has what may be NBA 2K15’s highest standing 3 point rating at 94. Korver’s actual catch-and-shoot field goal percentage is 56% on 5.6 attempts per game (16 games played).
Wesley Matthews’ release is definitely the quickest of the five players sampled. However, his release also one of the most predictable in the sample as well. This combination of predictability and quickness enables Matthews as an elite marksman regardless of his 88 standing 3 point shot rating from three point range. He has a fair amount of hot spots on the perimeter, further augmenting his marksmanship in NBA 2K15. 32 perfect release timings were achieved, and Matthews converted 65 of 102 attempts from the perimeter (63%). Matthews is currently shooting 41% in catch-and-shoot situations on 6.3 attempts per game (18 games).
Klay Thompson has the slowest shot release of all of the players, as his shooting form has him releasing the ball at the apex of his jump, which is compounded further by his two-motion shooting animation. His release is slightly more difficult than Korver’s to predict, but still moderately easy to memorize. Thompson converted 69 of 102 shots with 23 perfect attempts (68%). His standing 3 point rating is 91 overall. He is currently shooting 42% on 6.1 catch-and-shoot attempts per game (16 games played).
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an average shot release timing. However, his release is extremely predictable, due to his elbows being almost perpendicular to the ball when it is time for him to release the shot. He has a standing 3 point rating of 78. He converted 70 out of 114 attempts (61%), with 39 perfectly timed releases. His catch-and-shoot FG% is 38% on 5.2 attempts per game this season (18 games).
Brandon Jennings also has an average shot release timing. His release is also predictable due to the nature of him using his left hand to gather and shoot the ball, allowing users to quickly identify when the ball is at its apex. There is a frustrating level of difficulty with his release, similar to Korver’s. Regardless of the attempts, attaining an actual perfect timing is much more difficult than the other three players. He was the first of the players sampled, in which he converted 98 of 225 attempts (43%), with one perfectly timed release. His standing 3 point rating is 81, and is currently shooting 52% in catch-and-shoot situations on 2.1 attempts per game (18 games).
In conclusion, the inconsistent shooting percentages relative to player ratings have lesser relevance to actual shot release timings on the highest difficulty settings. A favorable solution would is to place less emphasis on shot release timings and place greater importance on overall shooting quality. NBA.com now features statistics for players in a variety of shooting situations that are not limited to catch-and-shoot scenarios. It should be possible for Visual Concepts to create baseline percentages for contested and non-contested shots and apply bonuses to certain players who can be considered as statistical outliers.
Start at 3:26 for testing methods
Note: The research here isn't not entirely scientific, nor did I have any intent on making it so.
In NBA 2K15, jump-shooting field goal percentages are wildly inconsistent on difficulties higher than All-Star. There are a variety factors for this, including shot release timings and player ratings. Furthermore, the actual field goal percentages in competitive matches are weighted heavily towards shot release timings in contrast to how open a shooter is, relative to the defense. Player ratings appear to be a crutch for whenever a user attains a good, but not perfect release. Field goal percentages in NBA 2K15’s “Freestyle” practice mode illustrates the discrepancy between release timings, player ratings, and actual field goal pecentages in the NBA.
A sample of five players were chosen (Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Klay Thompson, Brandon Jennings, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) out of the NBA’s top volume/percentage shooters in catch-and-shoot situations this season. None were chosen in any specific order, but at random, outside of the latter two players (though they still qualify with the other players). Each player attempted at least 100 shot attempts, shooting the ball within 2 seconds of catching it without dribbling (per the NBA’s definition of catch-and-shoot).
Kyle Korver’s shooting release is smooth and predictable. Not incredibily fast or slow, however a decent player should be able to attain good shot releases using him. However, no perfect shot release timings were attained within 100 shots. Korver converted 38 shots (38%). He also has what may be NBA 2K15’s highest standing 3 point rating at 94. Korver’s actual catch-and-shoot field goal percentage is 56% on 5.6 attempts per game (16 games played).
Wesley Matthews’ release is definitely the quickest of the five players sampled. However, his release also one of the most predictable in the sample as well. This combination of predictability and quickness enables Matthews as an elite marksman regardless of his 88 standing 3 point shot rating from three point range. He has a fair amount of hot spots on the perimeter, further augmenting his marksmanship in NBA 2K15. 32 perfect release timings were achieved, and Matthews converted 65 of 102 attempts from the perimeter (63%). Matthews is currently shooting 41% in catch-and-shoot situations on 6.3 attempts per game (18 games).
Klay Thompson has the slowest shot release of all of the players, as his shooting form has him releasing the ball at the apex of his jump, which is compounded further by his two-motion shooting animation. His release is slightly more difficult than Korver’s to predict, but still moderately easy to memorize. Thompson converted 69 of 102 shots with 23 perfect attempts (68%). His standing 3 point rating is 91 overall. He is currently shooting 42% on 6.1 catch-and-shoot attempts per game (16 games played).
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an average shot release timing. However, his release is extremely predictable, due to his elbows being almost perpendicular to the ball when it is time for him to release the shot. He has a standing 3 point rating of 78. He converted 70 out of 114 attempts (61%), with 39 perfectly timed releases. His catch-and-shoot FG% is 38% on 5.2 attempts per game this season (18 games).
Brandon Jennings also has an average shot release timing. His release is also predictable due to the nature of him using his left hand to gather and shoot the ball, allowing users to quickly identify when the ball is at its apex. There is a frustrating level of difficulty with his release, similar to Korver’s. Regardless of the attempts, attaining an actual perfect timing is much more difficult than the other three players. He was the first of the players sampled, in which he converted 98 of 225 attempts (43%), with one perfectly timed release. His standing 3 point rating is 81, and is currently shooting 52% in catch-and-shoot situations on 2.1 attempts per game (18 games).
In conclusion, the inconsistent shooting percentages relative to player ratings have lesser relevance to actual shot release timings on the highest difficulty settings. A favorable solution would is to place less emphasis on shot release timings and place greater importance on overall shooting quality. NBA.com now features statistics for players in a variety of shooting situations that are not limited to catch-and-shoot scenarios. It should be possible for Visual Concepts to create baseline percentages for contested and non-contested shots and apply bonuses to certain players who can be considered as statistical outliers.
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