Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

I am wondering if once again the "fix" for high QB completion % is due to the ratings they have for short, medium, and long passes. Is there any correlation between the ratings and overall completion %...and should there be?

For example, if a QB "averages" around 62% completion rating over the course of a season, should his short, medium, and long attribute ratings mathematically tie into that?

Let's say QB A avgs 62% over the course of a year. How did we know what the proper rating for each of the pass categories should be? Should they average out to 62%?

An example would be in this case the total base numbers to work with to gain an average of 62 would be 186 (3x62). Then somehow divide that up into the 3 categories: short = 74, medium = 60, long = 52 (just an example and would vary by different QBs). Something along those ranges anyway.

Just thinking out loud here, but I do think once again ratings screw up the game play and cannot be truly corrected through slider settings.

And yes, I know it screws up incoming draft classes...but if you only play 1 or 2 seasons it might hold up.

Thoughts?

C

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

The problem is that Completion percentage, by itself, is not a reflection of how accurate a QB throws. This is analogous to ERA in baseball, where it is a reflection of the pitcher's skill, his ballpark, and his defense. This is why Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a much better indicator of pitcher performance.

Now, taking this analogy to football, you need a something similar to measure completion percentage. You have to factor in WR drops, DB deflections, interceptions, tips at the LOS, etc. But for each of these, is it a reflection of a bad pass by the QB, or the other player? Not only that, but a completed pass can actually be poorly thrown. So, at the end of the day, we are subjectively evaluating every throw a QB makes and making a judgment call on whether it was an accurate throw or not.

I am aware that Football Outsiders has a lot of advanced metrics, do they have one that might help better evaluate QB accuracy than raw completion percentage?

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

I was wondering the same thing, the qbs completion % is mainly based on these 3 ratings(sac, mac, dac)well considering they are not scrambling, having the pass deflected, or WR drops. Obviously the %'s would be lower calculating those into it.

It would be a pretty simple test to edit these 3 ratings to avg. What the qbs actual comp % is irl and see how it plays out over a hand full of games.

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

Football outsiders has some new metrics updated 12/29/14. It gives us a good idea of more than just comp %'s.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb
If you click on the qbs name it will show you his game chart stats,
ie. P. Manning 2013 season: Rnk: 10 Short: 55% MID: 26% Deep: 13% Bomb: 6%.
I'm assuming they don't have the 2014 season calculated yet.

This could help in pinpointing what each qb should be rated in those areas.

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

Looks like another case of EA over rating players all for the benefit of the casual gamer. "E" everyone can pick up the controls and have a fairly successful passing game.

Wonder what P. Manning would end up with % wise if we rated him off his real life game charts? I doubt we would be able to go as low as Sac: 55 Mac: 26 Dac: 13 and how could we incorporate bomb %'s into it?

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

I think you would just have to combine long and bombs into one %. Interesting stuff, but yeah...hard to tell how it would translate to the game. Probably not well. I am sure there is some synergy and co-dependence between the AI engine and the default player ratings that EA puts out. Once we tinker with that who knows how it will play?

C

Re: Sliders and QB acc for short, medium, long
 

The game chart stats are based on 100% of the qbs throws and not his comp %. I was reading it wrong.
So P. Manning completed 55% of his total passes short, mid: 26, deep: 13 and bomb: 6