Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

[tarek]

So going through the draft it is clear that it's fun, but kind of limited in it's approach. The way I approach the draft is to have a draft cheat sheet of who I need, rounds and positions they may be drafted, and have a general strategy.

However, what I don't do well is plan out trading up or down, seeing who the best available player is, what each team need is, or other things that would help you plan the draft on the go.

Can others share their tips on how to get the best out of the draft? Questions I'd ask are:

1. Any way to tell when a team is most likely to want to trade their pick? I see trades happen, but i'm never privy to them or know that the pick is actually on the block? Is there a way to check this?
2. Do you check each team as they pick to see what their most pressing needs are? From the manual trade screen? Is that current and accurate? This is what I do to see if a team has a number 1 need in CB, then it's most likely they will draft a CB, so I can pause when it's within maybe 5-10 picks of mine and check who are the next CBs off the board and if i need to move up or even move down if I can risk it.
3. Do you trade based on trade value? I have a printed walter football draft pick value chart with me and a calculator. I use this to assess best trade value for any offers I'm receiving, and best practice to try to move up or down in the draft. Problem is, sometimes I can trade quite effectively using draft pick value, but sometimes a team wants alot more than their pick is worth. In these cases I assume the team doesn't want to trade, whilst in the easier scenarios the pick is up for trade, but how can you tell without trying to trade every single pick in the draft?

I used to play alot of Head Coach 09, and the draft was great, it gave you who the best options were, trades were open and prompted, all that.

[ajra21]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

1. simply put, no. you do make trades in the draft via the manual trade section of the menu. i’d naturally assume that every pick is “on the block” but that you have to be able to match their evaluation. that might mean giving up one 6th round pick or three 1st round picks.

2. personally, no i don’t check what other teams need. once you get past the first round, it’s pretty hard to figure out what they’ll pick. i’ll also admit to wanting good players to go to other teams cos drafting remains too easy.

3. generally, i try to pick the most realistic trade offer when moving down or out - often this will be the worst offer i receive. i’ll generally overpay to move up. this is because the CPU’s evaluation of most picks is way out of line with reality. i had two teams offer 2nd round pick for my 5th round pick. that’s just nuts.

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generally, i keep my draft board short. no more than four or five players at each position.

despite the smaller number of higher rated players since the patch, i can still pick five or six players with 70 plus OVR with ease; and the guys who aren't 70 OVR rated are probably no worse than 68 OVR.

recently, i’ve started drafting the whole first round myself to ensure teams don’t make stupid picks. equally, i’ll draft the second round for another five or six teams - maybe the weaker teams and sometimes the stronger teams.

i let the CPU pick at least two players for me to ensure i don't get too many good players.

[Josiphos]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

I use the online draft value chart anytime I move up, otherwise it's too easy to rob the computer.

Moving down I only do if there is no one I want to take. I have not seen the CPU do anything totally dumb yet. The CPU only trades with me on draft day, which is weird.

I think trading has improved from last year....when you could get anyone for a 7th

[YeOldTonk]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

How would you factor in players with the draft pick. Using the Draft Trade Value Chart is pretty mathematical, so how would adding a player into the equation, determine if its fair trade?

[SolidSquid]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

How would you factor in players with the draft pick. Using the Draft Trade Value Chart is pretty mathematical, so how would adding a player into the equation, determine if its fair trade?

I would say the player needs to have quick or better development and no knifed than 25.

[ForUntoOblivionSoar∞]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

Is it possible still to choose to control all 32 teams for the draft, then return to controlling just one during the season, and do this every year? I want the score ticker, but I don't want the idiotic off-season management of the AI.

[reyes the roof]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

3. generally, i try to pick the most realistic trade offer when moving down or out - often this will be the worst offer i receive. i’ll generally overpay to move up. this is because the CPU’s evaluation of most picks is way out of line with reality. i had two teams offer 2nd round pick for my 5th round pick. that’s just nuts.

I just did my first draft yesterday, did I ever see some wacky trade offers. I was on the board with my 5th round pick and the only guy I had left on my radar was a kicker that was supposed to go undrafted, so I wanted to try and move back to the 6th to pick him and try to grab an extra pick in next year's draft. I looked at my offers and Cincinnati offered next year's third, and two other teams offered me their 5th round pick in the same draft straight up, as if I was going to move back in the round with no extra compensation out of the goodness of my heart. I figured Cincinnati was interested so I tried to do a manual trade to make it more realistic, I think I changed it to a 6th and next years 6th and they declined

[tarek]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

I just did my first draft yesterday, did I ever see some wacky trade offers. I was on the board with my 5th round pick and the only guy I had left on my radar was a kicker that was supposed to go undrafted, so I wanted to try and move back to the 6th to pick him and try to grab an extra pick in next year's draft. I looked at my offers and Cincinnati offered next year's third, and two other teams offered me their 5th round pick in the same draft straight up, as if I was going to move back in the round with no extra compensation out of the goodness of my heart. I figured Cincinnati was interested so I tried to do a manual trade to make it more realistic, I think I changed it to a 6th and next years 6th and they declined

Maybe I haven't experienced enough of the draft (i've only done 1 so far) but I actually felt that the CPU was trying to fleece me with their offers. For example, I was trying to trade the #23 pick to move back in the draft because the players I wanted were estimated to go mid 2nd, and I got an offer of the #40 pick and a 6th rounder from Indy.
Also, I went to trade with the Browns for the #33 and #57 picks, so I offered the #23 pick + #87 pick and they refused, so there might be some discrepancy with the pick values.
Either way, I really like the draft but with some minor additions like 'best available' or prompting trades would be nice.

[atvmx21]

Re: Draft Day - Best approach to trades and predicting picks?

My draft was interesting. Ended up with 3 2nd rounds in 2018, 3 3rd round in 2018 and 3 4th rounds in 2018. I traded out of the 1st and 2nd round because the two guys i wanted, BOTH went right before me. It was also a weak draft. So I ended up with only I think 4 picks, only two in the 70s. But I should be pretty stacked in 2018 and have a good possibility of trading up into the 1st if it is a stacked draft.