Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

NOTE: I decided to do a reset and start over, but since I didn't get that far, I'm just going to go back and re-use this thread. Why did I restart? It's an even split between "I put the game down for a while and forgot where I left off and would rather start clean" and the completely shallow "I didn't like my first pass at the uniforms and didn't want to wait a year to change them". The road unis in particular looked like pajamas.


Finally time to start a new NHL 20 franchise: I shelved my last 19 game because it was hard to get excited about it with the new one coming out. So time to start over... new rosters, new bells and whistles (hello Trade Finder, you sexay thing, you), but the same basic format of my other franchises. I know the Young People have all moved on to their YouTube videos and Twitch streams, but I'm all about being long-winded in the written word.

For my first franchise, I'll be just doing default rosters, and setting my sights on Houston: the thinking man's destination for people who think moving Arizona to the Central is too weird. Major rules: I don't bother with owner finances or morale meetings -- those things don't add much for me -- but I do keep fog of war on, and in general I try not to meta-game too much with what I know about real hockey. For example, if my scouts were to somehow get things wrong and say Kaapo Kaako is a Bottom 6 forward, I'd try as much as possible to accept that as the reality of this game world and not meta-game. (Though if it's a close decision based on game metrics, knowing something about a guy in real life might be a tiebreaker.)

Traditionally I do a monthly format -- sim most of the games (play one or two just to keep an eye on things and collect screenshots), and then do a summary post for my team and an "around the league" post that sums up the rest of the league action. I also throw in a few "studio show" interludes that serve as a back-door way of talking about key decisions at greater length -- the studio team serves as a bit of a Greek chorus, explaining what I was thinking about major decisions (trades, draft picks, etc.). Those tend to show up at the trade deadline (midpoint summary, and discussing potential deadline moves) and in the early off-season (post mortem of previous year, looking ahead to next season) sometimes showing up at other times as well.

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

SEASON CAPSULES

2019-2020
Regular Season: 49-26-7, 105 points. 1st place in Central.
Playoffs: Lost in first round to Winnipeg, 4-1.
Key Off-Season Additions: none - first season
Key Off-Season Departures: none- first season
In-Season Moves: RW Andre Burakovsky and "extra" draft picks to New Jersey for RW Kyle Palmieri. Palmieri started slow with his new team but ultimately ended up putting up a 15-14-29 for Houston.
Stats Leaders: Matt Duchene 34-36-70, Artemi Panarin 19-47-66, Joe Pavelski 31-34-65, Brent Burns 18-38-56, Anders Lee 22-29-51.
Summary:
After a .500 start in October, the Renegades took off in November and kept rolling all the way through to March, where they slowed down and the Minnesota Wild caught them from behind. With a playoff spot clinched, but bragging rights and a division title on the line, Houston salvaged a division title on the last day of the season. Unfortunately, the Renegades couldn't duplicate Las Vegas' inaugural playoff sucess, falling in 5 games to Winnipeg. Jacob Markstrom took home the Vezina trophy.

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

Houston Renegades

The alt is the space-themed "Mission Control" uniform. The gray helmet is meant to represent the moon, and the bright orange legs are supposed to evoke a rocket liftoff. HIGH CONCEPT!

San Antonio Toros

Forgot there was already an AHL team in San Antonio. Also, minor irritant that San Antonio is in the North division. I might try to fix it, but not gonna lose a lot of sleep on it.

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

Build-a-Bear(ly Functioning Roster) Workshop: The 2019 Expansion Draft

First, taking a quick eyeball of the talent pool, it’s still heavy on defense, but not as bad as it was last year – there’s at least some tolerable forwards to be had in the pool this year. It does seem like the game’s understanding of bad/expiring contracts has improved and there’s some talented-but-expensive guys like Ondrej Palat ($5.9M) available that weren’t there last year.

If there's a “problem”, it's that the expiring contract guys are better than they’ve typically been. Matt Duchene, Gustav Nyquist, Derick Brassard, Marcus Johansson… there’s some actual real players. But do you want to roll the dice on one of those guys and then have them decide to test the market? Or, is having an exclusive window to negotiate with them worth passing on someone else from that team?

So let's roll up the sleeves and get into it. My rough methodology is: 1) Goalies first. 2) A first pass of "obvious" choices. 3) A second pass where I do kind of a knee-jerk choice to get a full roster. 4) Fine-tune and finalize.

GOALIES
I decide to start with goalies because it should only be three guys and it’s the position where I have the clearest strategy going in. Basically I want one solid veteran to start day one, and then 2 or 3 young guys with potential. I’ll start with three guys total, with a possibility I could snag a 4th goalie at the tail end of the process.

First, I’m eliminating Robin Lehner from consideration – it doesn’t feel right that he’s available. Besides, I had him in one of my ’19 franchises so there’s a little bit of “been there, done that”.

The best choices for that veteran starter are Seymon Varlamov (COL) and Cory Schneider (NJ) but they have opposite problems – Schneider is locked up for 4 more years at $6M per, while Varlamov is a free agent and could walk. The next best choice is Vancouver’s Jacob Markstrom – 85 OVR and under contract. (And Vancouver doesn’t have much else worth taking anyway.) Looks like he’s my starter.

Looking at the young guys for those other two slots, I've got a couple choices. Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry definitely one of them -- Elite potential, and as a Pens fan, I just like him. The other slot has two candidates. Eric Comrie (WPG) is only showing Fringe Starter, but he's already 80 OVR at age 23. Ottawa's Marcus Hogberg is showing Starter potential and the Sens' other choices stink. So I guess I'll take all three for now.

I'll note that there are a few other goalies I could take more as trade bait, but that'll be my first pass.

DEFENSE
Next, let’s look a first look at defense. The problem won’t be finding bodies, it’ll be how many to get and what mix of trade bait, current roster, and prospects.

First, we’ve got the expensive top-pair guys. Brent Burns (SJ, 90 OVR), Mike Giordano (CGY, 89 OVR), and Ryan McDonagh (TB, 87 OVR) are all guys who could immediately drop into top-pair, but they also have fairly painful contracts (McDonagh’s is an extension that kicks in if I draft him). Burns in particular is scheduled to get $8M a year until he’s 40. It’s not a problem today – every expansion team I’ve done so far has spent the first few years WELL under the cap -- but out toward the end of the deal, these could get ugly.

There’s a second tier that are a step down in overall rating, but also have more manageable contracts – Adam Larsson (EDM), Alex Martinez (LA), Jared Spurgeon (MIN), Mattias Ekholm (NSH), Jake Muzzin (TOR). Lower dollars, fewer years, or both. These are backbone guys I could really build around, or guys I could possibly sign and trade, depending on how much of a wheeler-dealer I want to be.

Then there’s the more prospecty types. Lots of guys in their early 20s with Top 4 or Elite potential, it’s just a question of mixing-and-matching, and the fact that I ultimately can’t go over 13 defensemen because of other roster minimums. Tony DeAngelo, Julius Honka, Haydn Fleury, Caleb Jones are names that stick out on first pass, but I could probably find 13 guys with SOME sort of “prospect” shine if I really wanted to go full youth movement.

FORWARDS
Forwards are going to be a bit of a grab-bag. There’s a few demi-prospects, a few tweeners like Conor Sheary who are too old to be prospects but still might be useful, a few expensive guys being dangled (Adam Henrique, Valeri Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat). It’ll be better than NHL 19 insofar as I’ll be able to field four credible lines at the end of the expansion draft, but it’s still not the cornucopia the defensemen are.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
First pass will just be “easy choices” – teams where either there’s one guy that stands out, either because the talent just isn’t there, or the contracts funnel the decision toward that one guy. Those adds will be:

• ANA – RW Daniel Sprong (22, 82 OVR, Elite). Anaheim does have other good young players (Max Jones, Ondrej Kase, Jack Kopacka, but Sprong is prospecty AND can play today.
• BOS – D Brandon Carlo (22, 84 OVR, Elite). Zach Senyshyn COULD get a look if numbers get dicey later, but for now, Carlo stands well above the rest. He is an RFA, but we'll figure that out.
• CAR – D Haydn Fleury (22, 78, Top 4). Most of the other players are old guys or expiring contracts.
• MIN – D Jared Spurgeon (29, 84, Top 4). Best of a bad bunch. He’s expensive (5.19M) but only has 2 years on his contract, so it’s not a long commitment.
• NSH – D Mattias Ekholm (29, 85, Top 4). Good solid cornerstone pick. 4 years @ $3.75 is in that range where I could keep him OR he’d still hold trade value.
• SJ – D Brent Burns (34, 90, Elite). $8M a year is painful but almost everyone on SJ’s list is a) an expiring free agent, b) not that good, or c) both. As a first draft, Burns is in the obvious choice bucket.
• STL – C Jordan Kyrou (21, 72, Elite). The Blues have some decent young defensemen, but they’re showing Top 4, and it’s tough to find legit forward prospects, so Kyrou it is.

That puts us at 11 guys – 0 LW, 1 C, 1 RW, 5 D, 4 G. Now we gotta start making some tougher decisions.

KNEE-JERK - TEAM-BY-TEAM

• ARI – RW Conor Garland isn’t showing as a GREAT prospect (Top 6 Med), but he’s sorta prospecty. (And in real life, he scored a goal with his face. Gotta respect that.) On the other hand, Arizona is a team that has lots of supporting-player types (Michael Grabner, Richard Panik) so this could be a place to round out the roster.
• BUF – LW Conor Sheary seems like the most compelling pick, though as a Pens’ fan, I always felt like playing with Crosby propped up his stats.
• CGY – Calgary has some decent choices, but looking at C Sam Bennett. Top 6 potential, 79 OVR at age 23, 89 speed, and also gets rave reviews for his leadership.
• CHI – Erik Gustafsson is looking like the best of a bad lot. 84 OVR, team-friendly contract.
• COL – Most of Colorado's best choices under contract are middle-ground defensemen -- not good enough to be trade bait; not prospecty. So first pass, I'm going to roll the dice on my first free agent and see if C Derick Brassard can be convinced to stay.
• CBJ – Same as Columbus, but even higher stakes. Matt Duchene is 87-Elite... that's a #1 center. But he's also a free agent, so I'd have to hope I can convince him to re-sign during the exclusive week. But since the other choices aren't compelling, let's do it.
• DAL – I've got three Elite-rated young guys to choose from -- D Julius Honka, C Jason Dickinson, and RW Denis Gurianov. Honka has a little more existing pedigree, but again... defense is pretty deep. Since I'm feeling exposed having Duchene and Brassard both be free agents, Dickinson makes me feel better.
• DET – Defensemen, expensive rentals, or LW Givani Smith, who is sorta prospecty (21 years old, Top 9/Low potential) but also plays more as a Grinder or Enforcer. Smith for now, but not sold on the move.
• EDM – Here it’s basically a two-man race at the blue-line: 26-year-old Adam Larsson for the established guy, or 22-year-old Caleb Jones for more of a prospect look. Since there are other mid-career guys yet to come, I think I’ll go with the kid this time and give Jones the slot.
• FLA – Uninspiring choices here. Gonna take D Ian McCoshen for the moment, but if defense gets crowded, he’d be another one that could be out the door early.
• LA – We'll start with D Alec Martinez, but could easily move to RW Tyler Toffoli if there are too many defensemen to choose from. After those two, it gets funky.
• MTL – Joel Armia is probably the best pick on talent, but he's a free agent. Karl Alzner is a good cornerstone D, Xavier Ouellet a more prospecty choice. I'll go Armia for now.
• NJ – Ew. The “best” choices are Top 9 forwards. I guess I’ll take LW John Quenneville because he’s the youngest guy available, but not feeling it.
• NYI – If I think Brock Nelson would be worth 6 years at $6M each, I could take him; otherwise it gets dicey fast. For now, we’ll go with young defenseman Parker Wotherspoon.
• NYR – It’s really a choice between Valeri Namestnikov or Tony DeAngelo. Namestnikov could be a top six forward, but Tony D. is one of my sentimental favorites, so let’s grab him.
• PHI – Best choices are RWs -- it's a coin-flip between Ryan Hartman and Justin Bailey. Bailey is a year younger, so let's go with him.
• TB – Officially, Anthony Cirelli isn’t that exciting because he’s showing Bottom 6 potential. But he’s already 79 OVR at age 21, so not sure there’s anything wrong with a guy who’s “just” a really good third-liner.
• TOR – Jake Muzzin is head-and-shoulders the best choice unless I think Kasperi Kapanen is drastically under-rated or Nic Petan is really an Elite. For the moment, Muzzin.
• WSH – This one’s going to be a little bit of a reach pick – RW Andre Burakovsky. On one hand, he's a free agent; on the other hand, he some pedigree as a goal scorer..

Looking at where things stand after the first pass:

So, let’s take one look before finalizing:

• GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom
• DEFENSEMEN (12): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Tony DeAngelo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon, Parker Wotherspoon.
• LEFT WING (3): John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith.
• CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou
• RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong.

The good news: goalies and defense are fine. Defense in particular is stacked enough I can maybe deal a guy or two.

Right wing is tolerable as long as I can reach terms with Armia. Sprong-Armia-Burakovsky-Garland plays; maybe add a guy in free agency. Center is fine IF I can re-sign Duchene and Brassard. If they leave in free agency, I get real young at the position real fast. Cirelli and Bennett as #3 and #4... cool. Cirelli and Bennett as top-sixers... ew.

Left wing... is a tire fire. Three guys, two of whom are prospecty and at least a year away, and neither is an A-list prospect. It seems like the simplest way to clean this up is to take a couple names from the bottom of the defense (McCoshen, Wotherspoon, DeAngelo) to shore up left wing.

Rangers: remove Tony De'Angelo, add Vladislav Namestnikov
Islanders: remove Parker Wotherspoon, add Anders Lee

Lee's a pending free agent. If I somehow lose him, I'll look at moving a defenseman to bring someone in, but for the moment, swing for the fences on a guy who could be a top-line guy.

FINAL EXPANSION ROSTER

• GOALIES (4): Eric Comrie, Marcus Hogberg, Tristan Jarry, Jacob Markstrom
• DEFENSEMEN (10): Brent Burns, Brandon Carlo, Mattias Ekholm, Haydn Fleury, Erik Gustafsson, Caleb Jones, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Ian McCoshen, Jared Spurgeon.
• LEFT WING (5): Anders Lee, Vladislav Namestnikov, John Quenneville, Conor Sheary, Givani Smith.
• CENTER (6): Sam Bennett, Derick Brassard, Anthony Cirelli, Jason Dickinson, Matt Duchene, Jordan Kyrou
• RIGHT WING (5): Joel Armia, Justin Bailey, Andre Burakovsky, Conor Garland, Daniel Sprong.

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

2019 Amateur Draft

We enter the draft picking #4 overall. I have a general notion I might want to move a defenseman or two to try and get some more picks. Alec Martinez and Mattias Ekholm seem like the best candidates to move based on salary and projected role. I also don’t have a lot of emotional investment in either Ian McCoshen or Erik Gustafsson, but they both have team-friendly contracts.

That said, let's at least get the first-rounder in the books. Thanks to a couple CPU create-a-players cracking the Top 5, Kaapo Kakko and Bowen Byram are both in reach. And then, the Kings draft the projected #5 guy (RW Nikolai Medvenov) at #2 overall, opening up Kirby Dach as a possibility as well. For me, it's between Dach and Kakko. They’re both NHL ready. Central puts Dach higher, but my scouts have Dach as Top 6 and Kakko as Elite. So we go with Kakko.

With our first pick locked in, we head back to the trade block. The Avalanche come back with an interesting offer on Ekholm – pick #17 this year, a 2nd in 2020, and Semyon Varlamov, who’s there to make the salaries equal, but I assume I’d let him walk as free agent. Alec Martinez gets a similar haul, this time from Nashville -- #25 overall, and a 3rd rounder next year. So now I have picks #17, 25, 35 upcoming and that still leaves me with a top 6 (by OVR) of Burns, Muzzin, Carlo, Gustafsson, Spurgeon, and Caleb Jones. And I cleared out almost $10M in salary (once Varlamov comes off the books).

TRADE: Houston trades D Mattias Ekholm to Colorado for their first-round pick (#17 overall), a 2nd-round pick in 2020, and G Seymon Varlamov (pending free agent).

TRADE: Houston trades D Alec Martinez to Nashville for their first-round pick (#25 overall) and a 3rd-round pick in 2020.


At pick 17, it's a bit of a dead spot with low-ceiling players. First I try to move up to 12 to grab a decent center; then I try to move down to pick up additional picks. Nothing comes together in either direction, so OFD Andrei Kasparaitis becomes the selection. He’s a mild overdraft (#23 in central scouting) but he had Elite potential whereas the other guys around him were Top 9/Top 6 guys. And OK... with those initials, I'm already planning to make him wear #47 so the legend of "AK-47" can be born.

At pick 25, the main guy I’m looking at is RW Rylan Burish, who’s not completely scouted, but what’s there is showing Elite-High. Since he’s EXACTLY #25 in central scouting, it’s hit and miss whether he’ll be there. None of the teams in the low 20s want to move and I can’t break the bank, so I have to play the waiting game. Fortunately Burish stays on the board and becomes pick #25.

For #31, I might actually want to get back into the first-round, as there’s an elite (RW Josh Williams) who probably won’t be there at #35. Washington (26), Tampa (28), and Boston (31) are all willing to part with their pick, so I play around with using that 2020 3rd from Nashville to move #35 up to #31, and the Caps bite. Burish and Williams go back-to-back. (I recognize that’s THREE RWs in the first round… something we’ll have to manage in the next 2-3 years.)

TRADE: Houston trades their 2nd-round pick (#35 overall) and Nashville's 2020 3rd rounder (from Martinez deal) to Washington for their first round pick (#26 overall).


And that ends the wheeler-dealer portion of the draft. From here on, I’ll just play it straight up and take the best deal I can find. Usually that means partially scouted Elite, or FULLY scouted Top 6/Top 4. I suppose my one ace in the hole is trading McCoshen if the absolute right guy came along, but not gonna sweat it too much.

2019 DRAFT PICKS

• 1-4-4 – RW Kaapo Kakko (6’2”, 190, 18, Finland). Elite-Med PLY.
• 1-17-17 (from COL) – D Andrei Kasparaitis (6’1”, 194, 18, Russia). Elite-Med OFD.
• 1-25-25 (from NSH) - RW Rylan Burish. (6'2", 188, 17, USA). Elite-High PLY
• 1-26-26 (from WSH) - RW Josh Williams (6'1", 185, 18, Canada). Elite-Med SNP.
• 3-3-67 - C Albin Grewe (6'0", 176, 18, Sweden). Elite-Med PLY.
• 4-3-99 - D Anttoni Honka (5'10", 176, 18, Finland). Top-Low OFD, but close to fully scouted. Also going on name value if I'm being honest.
• 5-3-131 - C Markuss Nazarov (6'4", 203, 17, Ukraine). Elite-Low SNP,
• 6-3-163 - C Mikhail Goldobin (6'0", 187, 17, Kazakhstan). Elite-Med PWF.
• 7-3-195 - G Noel Mikkelson (6'2", 197, 18, USA). Elite-Med HYB. He was in the 220s in central scouting, but figured I should have at least one goalie in the pipeline.

Next up... FREE AGENCY.

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

2019 Free Agency

As usual with expansion teams, our first free agency is fairly straightforward. Try not to lose the guys we had coming in, deal with our RFAs, possibly sign Kakko to his ELC. We have north of $40M to spend, but we will be locking some of that up trying to keep our big-ticket guys.

RE-SIGN PHASE


UFAs (4)

• C Matt Duchene (previous: 6M, asking: 7 years @ $7.875)
• LW Anders Lee (previous: 3.75M, asking: 6 years @ $5.975)
• G Semyon Varlamov (previous: 5.9M, asking: 3 years @ $4.825)
• C Derick Brassard (previous: 3M, asking: 4 years @ $4.750)

OK, Varlamov is just passing through -- we got him in the draft-day deal to keep salaries under the cap, but I neer had any intention of keeping him. I think I'm going to give Lee and Duchene what they want -- they'll only be in their mid-30s when those deals expire, and it gives us credibility dealing with other free agents. If they age badly, we'll figure that out when it arises. Brassard is the tough call here. I kinda want to keep him around, but I'm not sure he's worth almost $5M a year. He also shows "No" on an extension, so he might not sign anyway.

RFAs (10)

• D Brandon Carlo (790k, 4 @ 3.625)
• RW Andre Burakovsky (3.0M, 3 @ 3.2M)
• D Haydn Fleury (865k, 3 @ 2.875M)
• D Ian McCoshen (925k, 3 @ 2.05M)
• RW Joel Armia (1.85M, 1 @ 1.55M)
• RW Justin Bailey (715k, 2 @ 1.1M)
• C Jason Dickinson (875k, 1 @ 875k)
• C Sam Bennett (1.95M, 1 @1.225M)
• G Eric Comrie (700k, 1 @ 1.025M)
• LW John Quenneville (810k, 1 @ 900k)

I'm feeling like Armia/1.5M-ish is the cutoff for "easy" decisions where I'll probably just renew all those guys at what they're asking. Other than Quenneville, they're all asking acceptable money for the role they're likely to play. As far as Quenneville, whatever... below $1M is just organizational depth anyway.

On the "tough" decisions, I'll probably give in on Carlo and McCoshen. Fleury and Burakovsky will get RFA tenders to preserve my right to match, but not in a huge hurry on either -- Fleury is bench depth, and if Kakko is at all decent, he's pushing Burakovsky to the bottom 6.

EXPIRING UNSIGNED ROOKIES (0)
None at this point, but I'm creating a placeholder for consistent formatting in future years.

JUNE 25
First offers go out. As discussed above, Armia and everyone below him get what they're asking, as do Duchene and Lee. The other RFAs get tenders. With Brassard, I decide to do a short deal but higher on money -- 2 years at $5M per. It's an overpay today, but it'll be off the books quickly. If he doesn't accept, I may just take it to free agency and see what the other options are.

UFA offers (3): Brassard, Duchene, Lee
RFA offers (6): Armia, Bailey, Bennett, Comrie, Dickinson, Quenneville
RFA Tenders (4): Burakovsky, Carlo, Fleury, McCoshen
Released (1): Varlamov

JUNE 26
Accept: Armia, Bennett, Comrie, Dickinson, Lee, Quenneville.
Reject - Bailey, Brassard, Duchene

Cap space drops from about $43M to about $35.3M. Duchene gets a new offer (5 years @ $8M), Bailey gets an RFA tender for playing hardball, and Brassard can walk.

JUNE 27
Duchene rejects. Trying 5 years at $8.2M.

JUNE 28
Duchene rejects again. Trying 3 years at $9M. If this doesn't work, I guess we probably go to free agency, but this time he signs. Expensive, but a short enough deal it shouldn't get me in too much trouble.

While we're at it, I also offer ELC's to Kakko and Kasparaitis. Figure they're both Top 20 picks, they'll either start with the team or be there next year.

OPEN FREE AGENCY


Let's try to break this down by position.

CENTER (5): Matt Duchene 87, Jason Dickinson 80, Jordan Kyrou 79, Sam Bennett 79, Anthony Cirelli 78.

The scouting on Kyrou is weak, so it wouldn't surprise me if he needs a year in the minors. Similarly, I don't think another year of seasoning would hurt Dickinson, so if I sign a #2 center and push him down the depth chart, I'm OK with that. The best free agents are RFAs (William Karlsson, Brayden Point). UFAs drop off quick -- it's Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton, Brassard, and then a bunch of guys who may or may not be better than what I have. The interesting play here would be stealing Anthony Beauvillier from the Isles as a RFA signing. He's only asking $1.6M, so he'd cost me a 3rd

LEFT WING (5): Anders Lee 85, Conor Sheary 81, Vladislav Namestnikov 80, John Quenneville 72, Givani Smith 64

Smith definitely belongs in the minors. Quenneville is bubble -- he could go to the minors or be a bench part who plays when other people are hurt. So I could use AT LEAST one guy, and two might be better. Fortunately, the market at LW is pretty healthy -- Panarin is the big fish, but there's a decent second tier (Marcus Johansson, Ryan Dzingel, Micheal Ferland) that might be worth a look.

RIGHT WING (6): Joel Armia 82, Daniel Sprong 82, Conor Garland 70, Kaapo Kakko ??, Andre Burakovsky 78 (RFA tender), Justin Bailey 76 (RFA tender)

I have bodies, but Garland could live in the minors and Armia is on a friendly enough contract he could be a depth piece. Burakovsky starts to look like a luxury if he wants $3M or more. The big question mark is where Kakko settles in to the depth chart. Much like center, things drop off quick -- Gustav Nyquist and Wayne Simmonds are the big prizes and then it gets weird.

DEFENSE (9): Brent Burns 90, Jake Muzzin 85, Erik Gustafsson 84, Jared Spurgeon 84, Caleb Jones 82, Andrei Kasparaitis ??, Brandon Carlo 84 (RFA tender), Haydn Fleury 80 (RFA tender), Ian McCoshen 78 (RFA tender).

No real needs here, mostly just depth signings. I do always like having a veteran 7th whose development won't be hurt by sitting. The one potentially interesting thing is it actually has Kasparaitis on the depth chart at the moment, but that may just be because RFAs don't count as active-roster. We'll see if that lasts. If I wanted to try and corner the market or needed to spend money, there are guys -- Jake Gardiner, Tyler Myers, Ryan Murray headline.

GOALIES (4): Jacob Markstrom 85, Eric Comrie 80, Tristan Jarry 78, Marcus Hogberg 66.

No needs, but if a goalie better than Hogberg emerged, I'd at least consider it.

So to summarize: primary goals are a #2 center, a #1 left wing, and a veteran 7th defenseman. Secondary goals would be another body at right and left wing. Similar to the veteran defenseman, a versatile veteran forward also wouldn't hurt.

JULY 1
The first batch of offers go out. Main targets are Artemi Panarin (7 years @ 8.5M), LW Marcus Johansson (4 years @ 5M), C Joe Thornton (2 years @ 4.825M), D Chris Wideman as the 7th defenseman (1 year @ 1.075M), and a lowball offer on RFA C Anthony Beauvillier (1.375M, just below the line for a 3rd).

JULY 5
First responses come back. Johansson and Wideman are a yes. Beauvillier a no – resigns with the Isles, but that was kind of a weak shot anyway. Thornton rejects, but says more money might sway him. If I’m gonna have to pay $5M for Thornton, figure I’ll try to get Pavelski for $6.5M instead. Panarin is still thinking, but he also doesn’t seem to have any other offers. Not sure exactly what to do next, so I give Panarin another day or two to percolate.

JULY 6
PANARIN ACCEPTS! Left wing has gone from a weakness to a strength – Panarin, Lee, Johansson, Sheary, Namestnikov. Waiting on Pavelski and then I have most of a roster, except for dealing with RFAs and signing some warm bodies for the minors.

JULY 9
Pavelski signs! Top three targets acquired. So now I have 27 players under contract, about $8M in cap space left. Let's turn to cleanup tasks for a bit.

On the RFA front, I think I want to get Carlo signed and generally check to see if anyone's ask has gone down. Burakovsky has come down to a more reasonable $1.85M, so I’ll offer an even $1.8M for two years. Carlo wants 4 years, 3.7M; I offer 3.3M. Fleury and McCoshen are still holding firm, so I’ll wait a little longer on them. In a related note, I decide to offer on RW Zach Aston-Reese just because I like Penguins. If I get him, he kinda-sorta takes Justin Bailey’s roster spot. Technically he’s an RFA, but I keep it below the tender line (1.35M).

Meanwhile, I’m gonna basically stock the minors with two-way contracts. Based on some “know it when I see it” combination of youth/potential/speed/willingness to accept a two-way deal, a bunch of offers go out: Two-way deals for RW Beau Bennett, C Chase DeLeo, G Zach Fucale, C Axel Holmstrom, LW Juuso Ikonen, C Adam Johnson, LW Kalle Kossila, D Keaton Middleton, D Markus Niemelainen, RW Markus Nurmi, LW Shawn St-Amant, D Keaton Thompson.

JULY 11
Wait... crap. Burakovsky signed his tender for $3M. Ouch. He's an OK player, but if Kakko is good, I'm paying $3M for a 4th-liner. Oh well. Only for one year.

JULY 12
Carlo signs. That leaves just Bailey, Fleury, and McCoshen as RFAs, and their tenders are all under a million. If they hold out, OK. If they sign, also OK. Also 5 of the 12 San Antonio dudes ink deals. 35 contracts, $3.6M cap space.

JULY 13
ZAR accepts, and now we see if the Pens match. Additionally, the rest of the Scrub Squad signs, putting us at 42 contracts.

JULY 15
Pens don’t match, so ZAR is officially a Renegade! Still have about $3M in cap space remaining, but think I’ll leave that in case my RFAs sign their tenders. At this point I’ll sim out to the end of the month and call it a done deal.

MAJOR SIGNINGS (OVER $1M/YEAR)

• LW Artemi Panarin (7/8.5M)
• C Joe Pavelski (1/6.5M)
• LW Marcus Johansson (4/5.0M)
• D Brandon Carlo (4/3,3M) (RFA re-sign)
• RW Andre Burakovsky (1/3.0M)
• RW Zach Aston-Reese (1/1.35M)
• D Chris Wideman (1/1.075M)

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

Free Agency 2019: Around The League


First a few late developments on the RFA front -- Justin Bailey caved and signed, but Ian McCoshen got an offer from Montreal (1.735M) that would give me a third-rounder. I'm going to go ahead and take it since I'm getting kinda tight against the cap and don't really have a role for him.

Last, as I was simming to the next season, Minnesota came in with $3.5M on Haydn Fleury, which would be second round compensation. I like Fleury, but I technically don't have the cap space to match anyway, and even if I did, $3.5M for a guy to top-pair in the minors is steep, so -- with some regrets -- I let Fleury walk.

SIGNINGS OVER $1M/YEAR

• Boston: C Jason Spezza (80), D Dennis Seidenberg (75)
• Buffalo: LW Micheal Ferland (82), C Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (81), LW Remi Elie (81), LW Colin Wilson (80), LW Johan Larsson (79), RW Jimmy Hayes (78)
• Calgary: G Cam Talbot (81), G Chad Johnson (80), RW Devante Smith-Pelly (80), C Par Lindholm (80), RW Patrik Berglund (78), LW Taylor Leier (75)
• Carolina: D Dan Girardi (82), LW Joonas Donskoi (81), G Linus Ullmark (80)
• Chicago: D Tyler Myers (83), G Al Montoya (80), G Curtis McElhinney (76)
• Colorado: D Jake Gardiner (83), G David Rittich (82), RW Alex Chiasson (80), LW Brandon Tanev (79), D Luke Schenn (74)
• Columbus: D Ryan Murray (84), C Derick Brassard (82), RW Justin Williams (82)
• Dallas: C Valtteri Filppula (80), RW Brett Ritchie (75)
• Detroit: C Joe Thornton (84), G Petr Mrazek (83), G Michael Hutchinson (80)
• Edmonton: C Charles Hudon (80), RW Brett Connolly (80)
• Florida: G Sergei Bobrovsky (90), RW Wayne Simmonds (82), D Ben Lovejoy (81), RW Brian Gibbons (79), D Carl Gunnarsson (77)
• Houston: LW Artemi Panarin (89), C Joe Pavelski (87), D Brandon Carlo (84), LW Marcus Johansson (83), Andre Burakovsky (78), Zach Aston-Reese (77)
• Los Angeles: D Nathan Beaulieu (82), C Alex Iafallo (80), RW Jason Pominville (80), LW Brendan Leipsic (79), D Michael Del Zotto (77), C Mark Letestu (76), C Thomas Nosek (75)
• Minnesota: D Anton Stralman (83)
• Montreal: G Cam Ward (81), C Brian Boyle (80), G Anton Forsberg (78)
• Nashville: D Ron Hainsey (81), D Deryk Engelland (77), C Derek Grant (77), D Joe Morrow (76)
• New Jersey: RW Gustav Nyquist (84), LW Patrick Maroon (81), C Riley Sheahan (76)
• New York Islanders: C Anthony Beauvillier (81), G Michal Neuvirth (80), C Noel Acciari (78)
• New York Rangers: G Keith Kinkaid (82), RW Richard Panik (81), LW Brendan Lemieux (80)
• Ottawa: G Semyon Varlamov (86), D Niklas Kronwall (81)
• San Jose: D Lucas Sbisa (80), D Adam McQuaid (78), D Ben Chiarot (78), C Nick Shore (76), RW Troy Brouwer (76), RW Eric Fehr (74), LW Tobias Rieder (74)
• St. Louis: G Jordan Binnington (86), D Jordie Benn (79), LW Nic Kerdiles (79)
• Tampa Bay: LW Ryan Dzingel (83), G Mike Smith (82), C Cedric Paquette (77)
• Vancouver: G Robin Lehner (86), D Patrik Nemeth (80),WR Josh Leivo (80), D Derrick Pouliot (76)
• Winnipeg: LW Thomas Vanek (81), C Andrew Copp (79)

NO MAJOR SIGNINGS: Anaheim, Arizona, Las Vegas, Ottawa, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Washington

Re: Houston Renegades (Now in NHL20-o-Vision!)
 

POSTCARDS FROM TRAINING CAMP

First, a little roster tweaking: adding a couple bodies on the blue line to replace McCoshen and Fleury and keep CPU clones from sucking up minutes. Using a very loose evaluation of potential, willingness to take a 2-way deal, and preferably some semblance of youth. Based on those criteria, Gavin Bayreuther and Daniel Brickley get cheap two-way offers and both eventually sign, which puts us at 48 contracts. From there, I think we’ll save the last two spots (and our remaining cap room) to see what develops during the season.

GAME RESULTS

Before we get started with game action, we actually have a trade to report.

9/26 vs Winnipeg – 7-4 L. It was actually a close – if high-scoring -- game through two, but the Jets put up a pair early in the third to pull away. Defense was nowhere to be found as Winnipeg peppered poor Zach Fucale with 46 shots. Kaapo Kakko looked at home early, tapping home a deflected shot by Andre Burakovsky for a goal on his first shift of the pre-season.

9/28 vs St. Louis – 5-4 L. Despite outshooting the Blues 43-25, three early goals and two solid periods go to waste as the Renegades collapse in the third. Klim Kostin scores two goals to tie the game at 4-4, and Nic Kerdiles scroes the game winner with 3:13 to play.

9/30 at Dallas – 2-1 L. Different style, same results. This time it’s a low-shot, low scoring effort, but the Renegades give up another third-period backbreaker to go 0-3 on the preseason.

10/2 at Minnesota – 5-4 L. Minnesota jumps out to a 4-1 lead after the first period. Matt Duchene gets a pair of goals late to make it look closer than it was, but Minnesota was mostly in control for the duration.

10/4 vs Nashville – 4-1 W. Houston finally comes away with a win against the Predators. Brent Burns and Marcus Johansson put a close 2-1 affair away in the third.

10/5 at Chicago – 4-2 W. And there’s two in a row. Alex Debrincat ties things at 2 early in the second, but Jake Muzzin notches the eventual game-winner later in the 2nd and Burakovsky adds an insurance tally in the 3rd.

10/7 at Colorado – 4-3 W (SO). And pre-season ends on a high note, as Houston comes back from a 3-0 deficit in the third period, and Brent Burns bangs home the winner in the shootout.

FINAL RECORD: 3-4-0

FINAL ROSTER TWEAKS

As I’m getting ready to put the roster to bed, I’m struck by the fact that left wing is both crowded and pricy – I have a top three of Panarin, Lee, and Johansson (all over $5M), with Conor Sheary ($3M) and Vladislav Namestnikov ($4M) battling for the roles of 4th line and depth forward. So I decide to shop around and see who needs a body. Everything except salary is pushing toward moving Sheary – Namestikov is younger by a year, faster, and I’m leery of a 5’8” finesse player getting pushed off the puck a lot. And the offers are better on Sheary -- baseline offers from the trade finder are a 3rd and a 4th in 2021. Namestnikov tends to be a 4 and a 5. This eventually leads to:

TRADE: Houston trades LW Conor Sheary to Columbus for their 3rd round and 4th round picks in 2021.

It was a coin flip between them, Detroit, and Buffalo which organization would still be screwed up two years from now, and I decided to go with the Jackets. Buffalo has a lot of good young guys, so they should be on the rise, and Detroit is a team with a recognizable core that just has to get out from under a bunch of bad contracts. Columbus? Feels like general disarray there.
This leaves me about $5M under the cap, and at 47 contracts. I think I’ll start the season in that configuration and see how things go.

It does, however, mean I’ll need to call up a depth forward: right now my bench is Zach Aston-Reese on offense and Chris Wideman on defense. This is normally where I trade for known fetish item Darren Helm (it’s the speed, plus the 85 on faceoffs that makes him a stealth center fit), but it seems silly to hand back the $3M I just saved by moving Sheary. Looking at in-house solutions, Beau Bennett emerges as the choice – at age 27, he’s not really a “prospect” anymore, so he wouldn’t be hurt by sitting.

PROSPECT REPORT

Everything's on target with Kaapo Kakko -- holding his Elite and up to 79 OVR. It’s just a question of which line to put him on, but he’ll at LEAST get the 9 game trial, and probably more. Andrei Kasparaitis, the other rookie I signed to an ELC, is looking like a disappointment early on. He’s downgraded to 7th D potential, though he is showing a 68 overall. I mean, we need third-pair guys too, so he’s not a total washout, but he’s not what I hoped I’d be getting. I’ll still give him Top 4 minutes and put him on the power-play in the minors, see if I can’t salvage something there.

For the unsigned rookies, it’s a mixed bag. RW Josh Williams, C Markuss Nazarov, and D Anttoni Honka are holding their draft ratings well (Elite for the first two, Top 4 for Honka). RW Rylan Burish and C Albin Grewe have fallen from Elite, but are still on track to be usable players (Top 6 for Grewe, Top 9 for Burish). C Mikhail Goldobin and G Noel Mikkelson are positioning to wash out.

OPENING DAY ROSTER AND LINES


LINES AND DEFENSE PAIRS

FORWARD LINES
9 Artemi Panarin – 95 Matt Duchene – 24 Kaapo Kakko
89 Marcus Johansson – 10 Joe Pavelski – 11 Daniel Sprong
27 Anders Lee – 93 Sam Bennett – 40 Joel Armia
90 Vladislav Namestikov – 71 Anthony Cirelli – 65 Andre Burakovsky

DEFENSE PAIRS
56 Erik Gustafsson – 88 Brent Burns
8 Jake Muzzin – 26 Brandon Carlo
3 Caleb Jones – 26 Jared Spurgeon

GOALTENDERS
25 Jacob Markstrom
1 Eric Comrie

BENCH/SCRATCHES
49 Zach Aston-Reese
13 Beau Bennett
29 Chris Wideman

CAPTAINS
Brent Burns gets the C as the veteran presence, and the long contract means he'll be here basically until he retires. Matt Duchene gets one of the A's as a basically Day-One guy, but the other one is a little bit of a surprise, going to Sam Bennett. (He gets top marks from the scouts on leadership.)