another bob waterfield?

[shnuskis]

The Vikings have a better chance of finishing last in the division this year than making the playoffs. Let alone the Super Bowl.

Oline play is deteriorating. Hutch's play isn't what it once was and McKinnie is the most inconsistent left tackle I have ever seen. I expect Ray Edwards and Rice to leave in free agency. Pat Williams may retire. If he doesn't, he will join Kevin Williams in a four game suspension to start the season. And the safety play was horrible last year with little hope right now for improvement. (Do I need to mention the uncertainty of QB play?)

They do have bright spots on their roster, but there are too many holes to have any kind of discussion of super bowl.

[slickdtc]

Rookie QB's usually get play time because a team drafted high to get him, and that usually means that team is trying to rebuild. So rookie QB's typically don't play on great teams. It's all about right time, right place, right opportunity.

What do we have this year? Locker on TEN, Ponder on MIN, Dalton on CIN, Gabbert on JAC, Newton on CAR. (A few other later picks like in SF). None of these teams really scare me. Out of this bunch, Gabbert (if he even starts over Garrard), Dalton, or Locker have the best shot. But that doesn't mean it's a good shot.

I think one of these guys does lead his team to the playoffs though. There always is one rookie QB storyline.

[phillysouljah]

Quote: Originally Posted by slickdtc

There always is one rookie QB storyline.

Not really. That is a relatively new development with Roethlisbeger, Flacco/Ryan, and Sanchez. It's been rare for rookie QB's to make the playoffs.

I think it's only happened about 10 times in the Super Bowl-era

[phillysouljah]

Dan Marino, Bernie Kosar, Jim Everett, Todd Marinovich, Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Mark Sanchez are the only QB's since 1970 to be a starting QB in the playoffs as a rookie. Pat Haden started in the playoffs in his first year in the NFL but he played in another professional league before the NFL so he wasn't a true rookie.

[Palo20]

Quote: Originally Posted by bowdenfsu52

we all know bob waterfield was one of two rookie qbs that i know of that won a championship his rookie season. so i was wondering out of all the rookie qbs drafted this year which do you give the best chance to lead his team to a championship this year? personally i dont think any of them will but if i had to say one id say christian ponder because more of his team is figured out than the rest of the quarterbacks teams.

Hold on, we ALL know this?

[slickdtc]

Quote: Originally Posted by phillysouljah

Not really. That is a relatively new development with Roethlisbeger, Flacco/Ryan, and Sanchez. It's been rare for rookie QB's to make the playoffs. I think it's only happened about 10 times in the Super Bowl-era

That's still a lot of recent (last 7 years dating back to Roethlisberger) examples. With the amount of rookies who are set up to start in their first year, wouldn't surprise me to see it happen again this year.

[shnuskis]

Quote: Originally Posted by slickdtc

That's still a lot of recent (last 7 years dating back to Roethlisberger) examples. With the amount of rookies who are set up to start in their first year, wouldn't surprise me to see it happen again this year.

I would be more than suprised if a rookie qb starts a playoff game this year. The teams that drafted qb's this year aren't all that good and and they have less time to prepare with there teams due to the lockout. They are further behind than the qb's that have done it.

[phillysouljah]

I agree with the above. While there are a lot of rookie QB's who have good shots at starting this year, the lack of preparation due to the lockout will be a big factor. The Titans, Vikings, and (though they will probably be starting Garrard) Jaguars could conceivably make the playoffs without being too much of a shock, but, I'd bet it less likely to happen than happen.

I can't re-iterate enough how rare this has been historically but how since Roethlisberger, all of a sudden, there's been a bunch of rookies making the playoffs. From 1970 to 2004, only 5 rookie QB's made the playoffs; Since 2004, 4 more have made it. That is a big change in the trend.