I don't see the Colts or Bengals making any major noise, so really it's between the four division winners.
I know the Broncos have won 10 straight and all, but really, who's the best team they've beaten? A banged up Baltimore team last week? Pittsburgh the first week of the season? These are the other 10 teams they've beaten: Kansas City, Oakland x2, New Orleans, San Diego x2, Cincinnati, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. And they close out the season against Kansas City. I'm not saying they're frauds or anything, just that I'm not sold on them going over a team like the Texans or Pats.
I think Houston is the most solid all-around team. The problem is I don't know if I trust Matt Schaub to get the job done. And while they've only lost three games, they've all kind of raised red flags (Rodgers destroying them on SNF, the Patriots beat down on MNF, and even this week not scoring a TD against the Vikings at home).
The smart money, to me, is on the Patriots. They've been there before, they have the best QB out of all the AFC playoff teams, and they've seemed to fare the best against other top teams as opposed to the other AFC playoff teams.
Despite all that, I have a feeling about the Ravens (which means they'll get knocked out in the 1st round
). I feel like they've come so close all these years that this is the year they finally get over the hump. I know things aren't lining up well for them with all the injuries and firing their OC a few weeks before the end of the season, but it's not like the team with the best-looking situation on paper always pans out in the playoffs.
Think about the Steelers and Giants with their runs, the Cardinals coming out of nowhere, or the Colts in '06. Of course what stands out is that between those teams you have Eli and Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner at QB for those teams whereas with the Ravens you have Joe Flacco. But before Eli won those two Super Bowls, was he not in the same situation as Flacco?
I might be putting too much stock into the fact that they've come close so many times before so it seems logical they'll finally make that jump, but the players seem to be well aware of their window closing and that, combined with Ray Lewis coming back, I think is going to give them that boost that will get them over the top.