Week 2: New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1)

[jmood88]

Yeah, I don't remember the Goldson hit either.

[TracerBullet]

Quote: Originally Posted by jmood88

Yeah, I don't remember the Goldson hit either.

They showed it on ESPN before the MNF game. I actually agree with Steve Young and Ray Lewis that it only happened because he was crouched a bit (he was being hit from the otherside). Funny thing is the only thing you find around the internet when looking for it is the Ahmad Black hit which was dirty as hell.

[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by Chip Douglass

On the other hand, getting 3 yards means you win the game. Some quickie math: If you go for it, you have a 57 percent chance of converting (assuming average offense and defense), according to league-wide data compiled by Brian Burke. If you make it, win chance is 99 percent (according to Burke's WP model). If you don't, win chance is 74 percent. 0.57 * 0.99 + (1 - 0.57) * 0.74 = 0.8825 WP So overall, win expectancy is roughly 88% for the "going for it" option. If you kick the FG, you make it 64 percent of the time. If you make it, win chance is 86 percent. If you don't, win probability drops to 74 percent. 0.64 * 0.86 + (1 - 0.64) * 0.74 = 0.8168 WP So overall, win expectancy is roughly 82% for the FG option. Then we get to the punting option. Punting from the 29 nets, on average, about 15 yards. A league-average team from the 14 with a minute and change left and down 1 would have an 11% chance of winning, according to Brian Burke's win probability model (http://wp.advancednflstats.com/winprobcalc1.php). So, win expectancy for punting grades out to an 89% win probability. Unbelievably, punting grades out (barely) as the best option. It sounds totally counter-intuitive, but it's defensible for two reasons: 1. Field position. A missed field goal or a failed attempt leaves the Saints at their 36 yard line. A made field goal leads to a kickoff. A punt, at the very least, leaves the Saints at their 20 yard line. A coffin-corner kick could potentially pin them within their 10. Coaches generally over-inflate the importance of field position in decision-making, but with a minute and change left in the game (and with the Saints not having any timeouts), field position is especially crucial. 2. It's better to be up 1 late in the game than up 4. Again, it's counter-intuitive, but think of how conservative teams are when they only need a FG to win as opposed to a touchdown. Hell, think of how conservative Schiano was when his team only needed a FG to win. The Bucs got in FG range, dialed three straight runs, and settled for a long FG in bad conditions. When teams are down a touchdown, they are far more aggressive, passing the ball more often, going for it on 4th down more, etc. I honestly can't blame Schiano for punting the ball there. It seems like a totally inexplicable option and would have invited all sorts of trolling from the rest of the league and the Bucs' fanbase. Going for it, though, would have been less awkward and the statistically prudent choice. He probably deserves more criticism for putting up the stop sign once his team reached FG range in the first place.

What does any of this have anything to do with me saying hindsight is 20/20?

You can post all the probablities all you want now which actually proves my point.

Had the field goal been made and Brees would have been forced to throw a Hail Mary from the Bucs 35 with time expiring you wouldn't have come here and spent all that time trying to make a point I'm not arguing against.


I simply said its real easy for us to come here the day after and criticize the decision and post stats proving why it was the wrong thing to do. Save your argument, I'm not debating whatever point you are trying to make after the fact nor am I saying you are wrong but it's a moot point now.

[Feared]

Quote: Originally Posted by TracerBullet

They showed it on ESPN before the MNF game. I actually agree with Steve Young and Ray Lewis that it only happened because he was crouched a bit (he was being hit from the otherside). Funny thing is the only thing you find around the internet when looking for it is the Ahmad Black hit which was dirty as hell.

Yeah Goldson has a reputation for being a head hunter so he's probably being sought out. The Sproles play was a bang, bang play.. Now the Black hit on Graham In my eyes was purely intentional, and the one that deserved to be fined instead.

[Chip Douglass]

Quote: Originally Posted by kehlis

What does any of this have anything to do with me saying hindsight is 20/20?

It has everything to do with: "Make the field goal and the Saints have to score a TD. It's not really a choice." Only one of many ways to look at the decision.

I don't really care about the outcome; just the process. Tampa Bay could have gone for it, fumbled the snap, have the Saints return it for a TD, and I'd still be making the same point.

Quote:

You can post all the probablities all you want now which actually proves my point.

It really doesn't.

Quote:

I simply said its real easy for us to come here the day after and criticize the decision and post stats proving why it was the wrong thing to do. Save your argument, I'm not debating whatever point you are trying to make after the fact nor am I saying you are wrong but it's a moot point now.

Again, this is the exact opposite of post-hoc reasoning. The entire point of posting the stats and various win probabilities was to prove that the process of the decision should have led Tampa to try to convert the 4th and 3. Note that these are all completely independent of the outcome that actually resulted (the missed FG).

If I had argued that the decision was wrong because Tampa missed the FG and the Saints marched down the field and kicked the game-winning FG, then I'm being hindsight-oriented. I've never made that argument.

[da ThRONe]

Quote: Originally Posted by dsallupinyaarea

Chip basically sums up my thoughts exactly. Most NFL coaches are ridiculously conservative and it's a huge pet peeve of mine. Often times they take substandard lines on really easy, basic math decisions.

It depends on a lot of factors mostly time left and distance to the 1st. Last week I was irate Payton took the FG against the Falcons. The difference being we were a yard and half way, the FG still left ATL a TD away from winning or FG to tie and we were leaving the Falcons more than enough time to score(and a time out if I'm mistaken). Had we not gotten the 1st ATL would have had the whole field to go to win. Kicking the FG meant our defense had to keep everything in front giving the Falcons offense a huge advantage. Sure enough the Falcons drove down the field and had a great chance to win the game.

This is different because the Bucs had they made the FG would have given us the ball back with less than a min needing a TD only to win the game and with no TO's to stop the clock.