4th & 1 Discussion

[Cardot]

It seems coaches got a little more aggressive after the Eagles won the SB by going for it a few times on 4th down. I thought most of those were no-brainers, but the sports media lauded the bold genius of the decisions. As a Pats fan I remember hoping they would just kick on those 4th downs....like they are supposed to do....and give us the ball back.

[Blzer]

I loved what I saw this past week on 4th down. Besides the Bears, it really seemed to be working out for most teams, and I enjoy seeing them going for it and continuing their drives longer.

[IlluminatusUIUC]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

Besides the Bears, it really seemed to be working out for most teams,

Bills fan sheepishly raises hand

[ggsimmonds]

4th and 1 to seal the game for Baltimore tonight.

Probably less bold of a decision to day than it was ten years ago

[Blzer]

Since this thread started, here are the number of 4th down attempts per game per team (year-by-year), plus the total amounts for that actual season and their conversion rates.

2014: 0.881 att/gm (451 total, 46.7%)
2015: 0.930 att/gm (476 total, 50.1%)
2016: 0.936 att/gm (479 total, 51.4%)
2017: 0.947 att/gm (485 total, 45.1%)
2018: 1.053 att/gm (539 total, 56.7%)
2019: 1.162 att/gm (595 total, 47.9%)
2020: 1.285 att/gm (658 total, 55.0%)
2021: 1.458 att/gm (793 total*, 53.1%)

* 17-game season

This has really been climbing at a steady rate.

I'm calling it now that we're going to see 1.646 attempts per game per team next season, nearly double how much we were seeing since I first began pondering over it.

[reyes the roof]

I’m cool with going for it when you’re in no man’s land where it’s too far for a FG and a punt won’t net you much yardage, but I’d have a really hard time ever deciding to pass up points and go for it instead of kicking a FG unless it’s an unusual scenario like awful weather or its a shootout where nobody’s defense can get a stop

[Cardot]

Quote: Originally Posted by reyes the roof

I’m cool with going for it when you’re in no man’s land where it’s too far for a FG and a punt won’t net you much yardage, but I’d have a really hard time ever deciding to pass up points and go for it instead of kicking a FG unless it’s an unusual scenario like awful weather or its a shootout where nobody’s defense can get a stop

Yeah, but these days it isn't all that unusual for there to be a shootout where defenses can't get a stop. If a team has a decent offense, I think should actually go for it in most cases. Most folks though it was risky for Cincy to go for it in week 17 against KC at the goal line.....I thought it would have been a greater risk to give the ball to KC with a minute left.

[TheMatrix31]

We're slowly getting to the point where, unlike before when you'd have to find a special circumstance to justify going for it, now you have to find a special circumstance to not go for it.

Most of the time it's sensible to go for it.