Week 14:(7-5) Buffalo Bills @ (9-3) Denver Broncos

[SPTO]

Weird things always seem to happen in favor of the Broncos in Denver but we'll see what happens. I can see the Bills keeping it close for 3 quarters and then Manning does his thing. It all depends on how successful the Bills can be at playing keep away but still being dynamic enough to put points on the board.

Either way this should be a fun game to watch.

[kehlis]

I think a lot of people (not in this thread) spend so much time discussing Manning and that side of the ball that they don't realize the Broncos have the number three overall defense in the league.

Bills are number 5.


Broncos have only lost twice in three years at home (edit-sorry, this didn't include the loss to the Ravens in the AFCCG). I said it halfway in jest about the scoreboard operator earlier but the Broncos have been a vastly different team at home offensively all year than on the road.

[muggins]

Quote: Originally Posted by kehlis

I think a lot of people (not in this thread) spend so much time discussing Manning and that side of the ball that they don't realize the Broncos have the number three overall defense in the league. Bills are number 5. Broncos have only lost twice in three years at home. I said it halfway in jest about the scoreboard operator earlier but the Broncos have been a vastly different team at home offensively all year than on the road.

The home stat is definitely powerful but the total defense is only based on yards. The Broncos are 10 yards per game better... The Bills have more ints (15) than TDs given up by the pass (14). Denver is 12 and 24 respectively, with a little worse 3rd down % (both teams are good, Bills are #1 at 33%). The Bills have 14 more sacks.

The Broncos are definitely stout against the run but the Bills offense has been bad anyway. The key matchup is definitely Bills pass D and dline vs Manning.

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[kehlis]

Quote: Originally Posted by muggins

The home stat is definitely powerful but the total defense is only based on yards. The Broncos are 10 yards per game better... The Bills have more ints (15) than TDs given up by the pass (14). Denver is 12 and 24 respectively, with a little worse 3rd down % (both teams are good, Bills are #1 at 33%). The Bills have 14 more sacks. The Broncos are definitely stout against the run but the Bills offense has been bad anyway. The key matchup is definitely Bills pass D and dline vs Manning. Sent from my LG-LS970 using Tapatalk

Yea, not trying to undermine the Bills D at all. Just pointing out that unlike last year the Broncos actually have an above average D and still most pundits (etc..) don't even know it.

[slickdtc]

Yeah, and Denver's defense might even look better statistically if they didn't have an offense that puts so many points on the board.

It's all about getting to Manning for our defensive line; that's where we shine. Just scary good at getting to the QB.

I recall them saying Denver would be looking to run more in the second half of the season on Sunday night's broadcast... but you know if it's close, they're gonna give Peyton the ball as they should. Still, even with a stout run D, I think they'd be wise to run the ball and then eat us up with Manning when we have to focus on the run game too.

I think we can contain Denver to a degree, but our offense versus their defense is the real key. Can we move the ball on a good defensive team?

Of the 3 murderous opponents we have to finish the last quarter of the season, I see this as the most likely upset, with GB pretty close since it'll be home. Not saying there's a good chance, but there is hope. We can't act like Buffalo is a crappy team anymore, even against one of the top teams in the NFL.

Go Bills! This would be HUGE if we pull it off. Absolutely huge.

[SPTO]

I agree, it'll be interesting also to see the playcalling from Hackett. If he's a smart man he starts off with easy short range passes that would set up short runs at least that way you can soften up the Denver run D a little bit as they have to also look at the Bills throwing the ball.

If Denver is going to run it a lot to start the game then that should give the Bills the confidence to stick around defensively as they've been pretty good all around defensively. I just hope we don't see some stupid phantom/questionable penalties like the NE if the Bills get to Manning. Overall this is going to be a fun game IMO and I agree that i'd rank the monster games in terms of Bills probability of winning in this way: Denver, GB, NE.

[muggins]

I'd probably do it GB, DEN, NE just because the GB game is at home and Rodgers is such a huge part of the team. Manning is pretty important too but Denver has obviously won games with defense

[jack1535]

I'd love to see an upset but I don't see it happening. Our offense just isn't good enough.

Just shows how big close games against KC,MIA, and HOU were. Win any 2 combination of those and we are 9-3 and looking great.

Denver 31
Buffalo 13