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Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

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Old 09-22-2016, 01:03 PM   #1
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Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

A bunch of injuries for the Bears may limit how competitive this matchup can be, including ailments inflicted to quarterback Jay Cutler, receiver Alshon Jeffrey, and cornerback Kyle Fuller. The Cowboys aren't good enough to overlook anyone, however; the last time these two teams played, I believe then-Bears-quarterback Josh McCown torched their secondary.

Maybe Dak Prescott finds the end zone with his first career passing touchdown this week?
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Old 09-22-2016, 02:20 PM   #2
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The Dallas run game should be able to dominate this game. The Bears defense was below average before their injuries this week. They lost two of their best run defenders Monday so there should be no reason the Cowboys OL should dominate this game.
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Old 09-22-2016, 02:54 PM   #3
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Another primetime game for the Bears? Ewwwww
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Old 09-23-2016, 01:18 PM   #4
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr B
The Dallas run game should be able to dominate this game. The Bears defense was below average before their injuries this week. They lost two of their best run defenders Monday so there should be no reason the Cowboys OL should dominate this game.
The Dallas run game hasn't dominated anyone since Murray left. The Dallas coaches won't stick with the run game even if it's netting 4+ yds/play.

On paper, it def seems you're correct...but I won't believe it till I see it. Garrett, if anyone, can get out-coached every week, and his teams always play down to the competition.
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Old 09-23-2016, 01:21 PM   #5
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

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Originally Posted by fugazi
The Dallas run game hasn't dominated anyone since Murray left. The Dallas coaches won't stick with the run game even if it's netting 4+ yds/play.



On paper, it def seems you're correct...but I won't believe it till I see it. Garrett, if anyone, can get out-coached every week, and his teams always play down to the competition.


Yea Garrett will definitely try to find a way to **** it up this week. Hopefully the. Ears defense is so bad and banged up that even Garrett can't screw this one up.
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Old 09-23-2016, 04:33 PM   #6
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

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Originally Posted by fugazi
The Dallas run game hasn't dominated anyone since Murray left. The Dallas coaches won't stick with the run game even if it's netting 4+ yds/play.
No run game actually nets four yards a play, and you don't put yourself in position to win football games with the running game.

Even in 2014, the Cowboys and their vaunted running game achieved greater than 3 yards per play on their runs 47% of the time (which was probably a league high-water mark, but I don't know for sure). In 2015, the Cowboys run game gained more than 3 yards 43.8% of the time.

If you use the "success rate" metric as defined by The Hidden Game of Football (a "successful play" on 1st down gains 40% of the required yards, on 2nd down gains 50% of the required yards, and on any other down gains 100% of the required yards; find out how many plays meet this criteria, divide by the total number of plays, and you get success rate), the Cowboys run game in 2014 had a success rate of... 11.4%. Not exactly great. The 2015 Cowboys maintained their previous season run game success rate even without Tony Romo, coming in at 11.8%.

Through two games in 2016 (so small sample size and all), the Cowboys gain more than 3 yards on a run only 40% of the time, a bit of a drop. However, their success rate in their running game has gone up to 16.67%; when they do run, they are more effective relative to the down and distance required for a new set of downs. So by one metric, our running game through two games is putting us in better positions to win than even the 2014 running game did. We will see if that holds, obviously two games isn't enough to conclude anything.

Point being through all this? In 2016, the Cowboys passing game with Dak Prescott at quarterback gains more the 3 yards 52% of the time and has a success rate of 20.2%. The 2014 Cowboys passing game gained more than 3 yards 57% of the time and had a success rate of 24%. Passing is by far the more effective way to move the ball, and it mathematically makes sense to call more pass plays.

Sure, you probably can't be completely predictable as a play caller and just wing it every single play, and you also want to manage risk because passing plays are more likely to result in turnovers than running plays (and turnovers in football are particularly costly). But if you want to move the ball and score points, you should pass. If you want to prevent your opponent from scoring points and maximize your time of possession, you should run. If you can't pass effectively or don't pass enough, you won't win. It's a passing league. You pass to score points so you can run the ball later, to drain the clock so your opponent can't score points.
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Old 09-24-2016, 09:58 PM   #7
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

Hey look, an argument that gets away from the actual game.

I am far too comfortable about this game, but I expect a Cowboys win. Watching Ryan Mathews run through the Bears last MNF has me thinking this will be Elliott's first big (100+ yards, a TD+) NFL game. I expect Dak to play well but not quite as well as last week. He's a rookie and it's hard for me to project big-time production.

How the defense builds off of last week's up/down performance vs. Washington will be the thing I am most focused on.

Curious to see who the Bears roll with at tailback. I liked Jordan Howard coming out of IU this draft and Jeremy Langford has done nothing this year. Sadly, with Brian Hoyer at QB and Alshon Jeffery banged up, we probably won't get to see a real glimpse of either unless they somehow build a huge lead in this game.

Overall, I see Dallas winning, but it'll be closer than expected.
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Old 09-24-2016, 10:17 PM   #8
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Re: Week 3 SNF: Chicago Bears (0-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The run needs the pass, the pass needs the run. That way the defense can't focus on one area. That's all I care to know. I did enjoy your analytics though.
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