The Most Important Baseball Stat?

[Blzer]

If OBP is the winner, then Barry Bonds is still by far and large the biggest threat in baseball.

[dkgojackets]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

If OBP is the winner, then Barry Bonds is still by far and large the biggest threat in baseball.

Few will deny that he is way up the list.

[snepp]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

I agree Joe. That's part of the problem i have with strict SABR folks - they completely take the humans out of the equation and instead see everything as numbers.

No they don't, this is a stereotype fed largely by old, stubborn, and in many cases closed-minded baseball writers who feel threatened by something they either don't understand, or don't want to put any effort into understanding.

Take Game 4 in the 2004 ALCS. A strict SABR team wouldn't have won that game. Roberts never would have stolen second because stats tell you its not a safe gamble - he's more likely to score not stealing over time than he is by stealing and risking getting thrown out. Hell - a player like Roberts might not have even been on that team.

Again, malarkey. Roberts has a career stolen base success rate of 81.2%, well above the generally accepted SABRmetric break even point of 75%. SABRmetrics doesn't frown upon stolen bases, contrary to popular opinion (see previous statement), unless you're unsuccessful at such a rate that you begin costing a team runs.

[dkgojackets]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

Take Game 4 in the 2004 ALCS. A strict SABR team wouldn't have won that game. Roberts never would have stolen second because stats tell you its not a safe gamble - he's more likely to score not stealing over time than he is by stealing and risking getting thrown out. Hell - a player like Roberts might not have even been on that team.

Wrong. Did you even read Moneyball, or are you one of the many who comment on something they don't know?

Roberts' career SB% is 82%. That is well over the break-even point as determined in Moneyball (about 70). It WAS the sabrmetic move to make.

[Sully]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

I like to think the most important stat in baseball is wins.

[Skerik]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

VORP > all.

[Bigtonyclark]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

Also, to add on the point both snepp and Dkgojackets just made about the Roberts steal, the steal had a very high leverage index and increased the Red Sox's chances of winning significantly. The steal is in fact supported by statistics.So yes, a "strict" SABR would have had Roberts take the steal because of the situation and Roberts' success rate.

That is another misconception about sabremetricians. Most people think they don't support stealing bases, when in fact, we, or they, don't support stupid and illogical base stealing. Most teams do seem to be smarting up about base stealing though, as the majority had a success over 75%...

[krishna]

obp isnt how often a player gets on base. dont pretend it is.

[Stu]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

That is another misconception about sabremetricians. Most people think they don't support stealing bases, when in fact, we, or they, don't support stupid base stealing. Most teams do seem to be smarting up about base stealing though, as the majority had a success over 75%...

Exactly. The point is that stolen bases (or bunts, or any other in game strategy) have their place, but shouldn't be used when the situation doesn't call for it.

You guys (OS writers) really need to stop telling us what Sabr folks think or don't think. You're really showing off your lack of knowledge on this topic.

[PLite14]

OPS makes for a good stat, since it combines average, OBP %, and SLG %

[JoeRyan33]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

I think the main difference between the Oakland A's and the Boston Red Sox was, and perhaps always will be, money.

The A's built their team on an idea of what they felt was the soundest way to produce the most wins at the smallest cost; the Red Sox didn't have such constraints. I find it hard personally to praise their methods when they tried to dump their key bat (Manny Ramirez) preseason 2004.

I don't necessarily agree with the A's formula, especially not when it came to predicting future performance in young players. Here their hands weren't tied so much, and they had the ability to get players who would contribute in the long run. Before you say they didn't, that they couldn't afford to take risks on big bonuses, I'm referring to the draftees outside the elite tier. These guys are very much signable at good value; the A's over reliance on DePodesta's stat lines, and Beane's stubbornness, cost them dearly.

Side note: When you play pure percentages with steals, you do remove the human element. No statistic can account for everything positive that speed does for a team, the things that don't show up in box scores. Maybe Roberts' in the 2004 ALCS wasn't the best example, but I understand what Bly is saying.

The Beane philosophy, and that espoused in Moneyball, is that speed is the element of baseball that you can most afford to be without. I don't necessarily disagree - in fact, I agree with that idea - but, the strict sabermetric approach does have its massive downfalls. The old scouting methods are in a lot of ways ridiculous, but so too is total adherence to pure statistical analysis in building a baseball team.

[BledsoeHoF]

I actually like OBP+S for offensive capability.

I guess I only look at errors for defense.. If you are money in plays you are involved in it really doesnt matter to me if you have the range of Furcal. A large range leads to throwing errors as well.

Just one more thing.. David Wright winning the Gold Glove over Chipper Jones was a travesty. Wright had 20 freaking errors for crying out loud.

[dkgojackets]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

Just one more thing.. David Wright winning the Gold Glove over Chipper Jones was a travesty. Wright had 20 freaking errors for crying out loud.

There were far worse decisions than that.

And looking strictly at errors is a terrible measure.

[dkgojackets]

Re: The Most Important Baseball Stat?

OPS makes for a good stat, since it combines average, OBP %, and SLG %

OPS is nice and better than junk like average, but fails to account for a point of OBP being worth more than a point of SLG.

[Gary Armida]

The great thing about baseball is the fact that you can have these kind of discussions. Any good baseball man will tell you that there is value in stats like OBP, VORP, etc. I like OPS, but that isn't the be all and end all. There is a human element to the game that has its right place too. Take a guy like Adam Dunn. A lot of people don't like him b/c he K's 180 times a year. But, he consistently posts good OBP and SLG. But, if someone values a stat involving strikeouts, then Dunn will not be good to them. They are not cyborgs playing which is why something like the Red Sox bullpen by committee failed and was quickly fixed.

Bottom line is there is no one important stat, just like a guy can't be soley judged on whether he is a good influence. A good baseball man looks at the whole picture. Guys like Beane, James, Epstein get a bit of a bum rap. They do look at more than stats; they just base a lot of their feelings about players on the data. Unfortunately, the zealots who warp the thinking into only having value for stats ruins some great and valid stats.

Sully had the best comment on the thread. Wins is really the only important stat. It doesn't matter how you get there.